Voting behaviour and the media

how many voters said they voted Labour to ‘get the tories out’ 2024

50%- undermining the importance of all demographic/social factors

ultimate class election

1951 vs Thatcher’s 1979 election (The Economist) - ‘Labour suffered a massive haemorrhage of working class voters’

Partisan dealignment in 1979 election

swings of 11% and 9% amongst C2 and DE voters to the Conservatives

Class dealignment- Labour - 2024 election

ABC1 class- 36% voted Labour

C2DE class- 33% voted labour

both ABDE- 26% voted for the Conservatives

BUT Lab won in all classes, as with Conservatives in 2019

Changing class system- class dealignment

• embourgeoisement- growing affluence, some think of themselves as middle class

• 29% worked in manufacturing jobs in 1970 vs 8% in 2021

• declining trade union membership

  • 1979- 13.2mill members- 6.2mill in 2016

1997 social factor stats

41% of AB voted Tory- 15% decrease, 50% of skilled working class voted Labour, Lab gained 12% of middle class vote

Lab won 82% of Black vote vs 12% Conservative

Approx 45% of both men and women voted Lab

Education less significant- both highly educated middle class business owners and less educated working class citizens were equally disillusioned with Conservative leadership

2019 general election social factor stats

48% of unskilled working class voted Cons vs 33% for Labour

73% of leave voters backed conservatives vs 48% of remain voters backing Labour

64% of black and ethnic minority voted Lab

18-24 15% of women voted cons vs 28% of men

56% of 18-24 voted Labour

58% of voters with GCSE level qualifications or below voted Cons vs 25% for Labour

traditional voting behaviour towards education as factor

• graduates vote Cons and school leavers voting Lab

• consistent from 1979-2015 until Brexit

Evidence education is an increasingly important factor in 2024 election- reverse since brexit

• 60% with degree voted for centre-left/left leaning parties - 42% labour

• over 50% of those with GSCE or lower voted Reform/Conservative

• Graduates more likely to back remain and have since voted Labour, vice versa with school leavers- evident as 23% w/ GSCE or lower voted Reform (Eurosceptic) vs 8% with a degree or higher

• Education strong correlation with age

  • 2001 only 20% of voters were graduates

  • 2031 graduates expected to outnumber school leavers

Prof. Sir John Curtice

‘London is now the most pro-Labour part of the country and actually the core Labour voter is a young, often first generation, middle-class professional living in London’

Age in 2024 election

• 55% of women and 60% of men 65+ voted Tory or Reform

• vs 16% of women and 22% of men aged 18-24

Evidence young voters are more left wing

19% of 18-24 year olds voted green as oppose to 2% of 65+

43% of 65+ voted Conservative as oppose to 5% of 18-24 year olds

Age as a predictor has not really changed since 1979

Labour vote 2024- white vs ethnic minority voters

33% vs 46%

black voters most likely to vote labour- 68% of black voters 2024

asian voters most likely to vote Conservative 18% , and 11% green (Pro-Palestinian stance?)

Partisan dealignment

44% of voters claimed to have a ‘very strong attachment’ to a party in 1964- declined to 10% in 2005

1950s- Lab 1m and Tories 2.8m, now only 1.5% of UK population is a member of a political party (2022)

13.2mill

Evidence gender is not a key factor in 2024

34% of men, 35% of women voted Labour

23% of men, 26% of women voted Conservative

Evidence gender is a key factor

• relationship between age and gender

• Lab recieved more votes from younger women than younger men

• Kings college london - Gender gap was strongest at ends of political spectrum

  • 19% of women voted green vs 13% of men 18-24

  • 12.9% of young men voted reform vs 5.9% of young women

Labour in London

43% vote share in the capital

Evidence red wall seats (North -east) fell to Johnson’s Tories in 2019

• Labour’s vote share in NE in 2019 was 24.5% vs 30.6% Conservative

Evidence ‘Blue-wall’ seats fell to Labour in 2024

• 45.4% voted Labour in the South-East

• 20.2% voted Conservative

example of issue voting

2017/2019- ‘Get Brexit Done’ -voters choose party they trust more on salient election issue

Valence issue

• all major parties agree on goal e.g NHS

• also- broad consensus among public on most important issue e.g economy/cost of living

  • 2024- Tories no longer trusted w/ economy after Mini budget

  • 1997- public services in need of investment

• As public vote on which party is most likely to deliver, competence becomes key issue

example of competence/govt record voting

John Major’s failure to prevent collapse of pound on Black Wednesday 1992 damaged Conservative record for economic competence- led to Blair’s landslide of 179 (largest since 1935)

other examples of governing competence in determining voting behaviour

• 1979- Labour’s failure under Callaghan ‘crisis, what crisis?’ and winter of discontent

• 2024- Truss’ mini budget destroyed governing/economic competence of Tories

Importance of leadership in determining party behaviour

• leadership appeal and charisma- can significantly influence election outcomes creating public appeal

  • BUT- Starmer won 174 seat landslide and seen as uncharismatic

    • yougov- 61% DISLIKE

• Leadership failures and negative perceptions can create distrust

• ‘Presidentialisation’ of UK politics

leadership- example of negative perception creating distrust

• Theresa May- criticised for calling an election in 2017 after previously ruling one out= distrust

• Criticised for refusal to take part in TV debates- Caroline Lucas- ‘you don’t say it’s the most important election of our lifetime and not be bothered to show up’

Leadership- public appeal

• Thatcher 1983- seen as strong leader after Falklands war

• 1997- Blair- young, seen as modern and charismatic- ‘Cool Britainnia’

• 2019- Boris Johnson, charismatic, clear message of ‘Get brexit done’ vs Corbyn’s unpopularity

  • BUT- Corbyn unpopular due to media?- 2015 ‘a shadow chancellor who hates capitalism’- daily mail

How important are policy and manifestos in determining voting behaviour?

• 1983 Labour manifesto - ‘longest suicide note in history’ (Micheal Foot) traditional labour policies and public rejected return to the 70s

• 1997- New Labour rebranded with centrist policies- increase perceived economic competence

• 2017- Corbyn’s popular manifesto (esp. w/young voters- abolishing uni fees) contributed to Theresa May’s minority govt (confidence and supply w/ DUP)

• 2019- ‘Get Brexit done’ - valence issue? vs Corbyn’s ‘neutral’ stance on the EU

Voting behaviour during Brexit

• 57% in upper middle class professions voted to remain vs. 36% in lower-working class professions

Popularity of TV amongst older voters

• 70% of UK adults report broadcast TV as most used form of news consumption

• rises to 75% when considering on-demand

• 85% of over 55s said TV was their favoured platform

popularity of online news sources

2023- 68% of UK adults used online news sources - online newspaper readership remains influential among older voters

declining print circulation

2018 reach 40% of population , vs est. 26% in 2023

Popularity of social media amongst younger voters

2023- 83% of 16-24 year olds used online sources for news

71% used social media specifically, less than half watched broadcast TV

Adult social media use to access news increase

rose to 52% in 2024 from 44% in 2018

Popularity of televised leadership debates

2010- 9.4 million watched debate as oppose to 4.8million in 2024

Had been important in 2010- Nick Clegg’s success in televised debates- ‘Super Nick’ and ‘Cleggmania’ (but did not lead to huge increase in lib-dem vote share, both May and Corbyn avoided TV debates in 2017)

radio and news access

only 2 radio stations appearing in top 20 news sources

media is important- agenda setting

• shaping opinion- Daily Mail headline ‘Enemies of the people’ after UK supreme court ruling on Miller vs Brexit Secretary 2017 (decided parliament had to trigger Article 50 to leave EU, not executive), creating huge debate about role of judiciary

• BUT- voters exist in echo chambers- exacerbated by social media, likely to consume media which already confirms what they believe

role of investigative journalism - importance

• 2009 expenses scandal led to a number of MPs losing seats in 2010- primarily exposed by Daily Telegraph

• Partygate scandals under BJ led to his resignation during Covid-19 and played huge part in large Conservative defeat in 2024- Pippa Crerar at Daily Mirror

Newspaper endorsements

• The Sun - backed Labour 2024 for the first time since 2005

• 1992- aggressive campaign against Neil Kinnock- ‘It’s the sun wot won it’- became phrase embodying persuasive power of newspaper

  • Powerful influence- Rupert Murdoch’s international ownership of news

    • ‘if Kinnock wins today will the last person to leave Britain please turn out the lights’ (open bias- newspapers)

    • John Major victory

• 1997- ‘The Sun backs Blair’- however, newspapers likely to just back whoever is likely to win

Rational choice theory

assumes voters will act in own best interests evaluating costs and disadvantages

examples of hidden bias in the media

• GB news- Ofcom has ruled on many occasions that GB news has breached impartiality rules by allowing politicians to act as news presenters e.g Jacob Rees Mogg and Nigel farage

• BBC- criticised by left for pro-Israel bias coverage of Gaza, Trump speech editing- leaked memo revealed edited 2021 clip to make it look like Trump encouraging Capitol riot

• Labour complained about BBC Laura Kuenssberg’s inaccurate coverage of Jeremy Corbyn’s views on shoot-to kill policies in aftermath of 2015 Paris attacks

Overton window

shifting range of policies and ideas deemed acceptable for public discourse

e.g restricting social media for under16s has moved from fringe to serious political consideration

increasingly far right views on immigration also good example of this

context of 1979 election

• Jim callaghan ‘crisis, what crisis?’ (The Sun)- govt seen as tired and ineffective

• winter of discontent- govt deemed incapable of controlling powerful unions

• unemployment at 1.5mill

• had struggled w/ parliamentary minorities- lib-lab pact broke down in 1978

election results - 1979

Cons- 44% vote share, 43 seat majority vs 37% Labour (269 seats)

turnout high at 76%, reflecting public desire for change/sense of national crisis

conservative campaign 1979

• ‘Labour isn’t working’

• cultivated image of careful housewife and mother- economics explained in terms of domestic spending- you don’t spend what you don’t have

• Saatchi and Saatchi produced campaign advertisements

• fabrication of images and photo opportunities

• clear strategy of renewal after years of decline

• cons appeared united under strong leadership

• Harold wilson conceded in Daily Mail interview his wife would vote Thatcher as she was a woman

context of 1997 election

• 18 years of conservative rule- public services percieved as underperforming under Tory leadership

• 1992 Black friday - govt forced to withdraw pound from ERM- destroyed Tories record for economic competence

• Record of sleaze e.g 1994 cash for questions scandal (Mohammed el-fayed) and sexual scandals

Election results and voting behaviour in 1997

Lab 418 seats, 179 landslide, 43% of vote share

Cons 165 seats, 31% of vote

inroads in blue wall seats and realignment w/ younger,educated middle class

New Labour

• unveiled at 1994 party conference

• Clause V abandoned 1995

• message was that the Labour party was moderate with interests of ‘middle england’ at heart, appeal to the home owning yet working class ‘mondeo man’

1997 manifesto- ‘New Labour because Britain deserves better’- promise not to increase base rate of income tax

• speedy punishment of young offenders

• reduction of NHS waiting lists

• reduction in class sizes

• nursery places for 3-4 yr olds

1997 Labour campaign

• carefully enforced by campaign manager Mandelson

• Cons internally divided over Europe

• The Sun - ‘Give change a chance’

2010 election results

306 Cons seats with popular vote of 36%, Lab 258 seats with 29% and Lib dems 23%, 62 seats

first hung parliament since 1974- together coalition won 59% of the vote = democratic legitimacy

Cons made strong gains in south and midlands, Lab retained stronghold in cities and North, growing willingness to vote for a 3rd party

Incumbency fatigue? (13 years of Labour) + 2008 crisis/2009 expenses scandal

2010 manifesto

austerity, modern image of David Cameron

TV debates = presidentialisation of politics? focus on individual leaders

income and Labour vote- class dealignment

40% with a household income of more than £70k voted Labour

33% with a household income of under £20k voted Labour, whilst 17% of that group voted for Reform