Week 2: Disaster and Risk research

Documenting disasters

Maintaining databases on disaster events can be difficult. Why?

* disasters can co-occur (hurricanes cause floods, earthquakes cause landslides, etc.)
* mortality can be difficult. to count (famine, epidemics)
* a general lack of census taking (in developing countries)

Identifying disasters

Some people may consider certain events to be disasters while other people may not

eg.

* Eastern Ontario/ Southern ice storm
* Walkerton water crisis - E-Coli.
* Canada/US 14-hour power blackout
* love canal toxic waste spill
* three mile island nuclear meltdown

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\*therefore, specific definition of a disaster has been developed

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Disaster threshold (CRED)

What events officially qualify as a ‘disaster’

Threshold developed by Centre for Research on the epidemiology of disasters (CRED)

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At least 10 deaths per event

or

100 or more persons affected (injured, homeless, etc)

or

gov’t. in the area declares a disaster

or plea for international assistance

Exceptions to the CRED threshold:

* for droughts or famines, at least 2000 persons affected
* for technological disasters, 5 or more deaths per event

Statistical data is reported in _____ ________

absolute terms

(number of casualties, billions of dollars in damage, etc.)

The impact of losses is felt differently from one place to the next

**example:**

* 10 fishers lost in a remote village of 200 people versus 10 factory workers in a city of 200,000
* therefore, statistics must be placed in a community/ regional context

Media and disasters

the media concentrates on:

* human interest
* visual impact
* events prioritized according to a North American perspective

A study found that an event causing the death of one North American was granted the same amount of reporting time to the deaths of:

_ Eastern Europeans

__ Middle Easterners

_ Latin Americans

__ Asians

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3 Eastern Europeans

11 Middle Easterners

9 Latin Americans

12 Asians

Impacts of Disaster

Impacts vary greatly by disaster type

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**example:**

* earthquakes tend to cause more deaths than tornadoes
* floods affect more people (homelessness) than most disasters but cause fewer deaths
* droughts mainly cause economic losses (agriculture) in developed countries but they can lead to famine in developing countries
* technological disasters are more likely to occur in developed countries

Impact trends

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Globally, most impacts from disasters have _______ over time:

Globally, most impacts from disasters have increased over time:

* property damage
* economic losses
* persons injured
* deaths

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Impacts have not increased in equal proportions

* economic losses have increased at a faster rate than deaths

Increasing Impacts

Why are disaster impacts increasing?

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Why are developing countries more affected?

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Example:

* Haiti earthquake

Haiti Earthquake

Haiti has been the poorest country in the western hemisphere for many years

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A __**M7.0 earthquake**__ occurred Jan.12, 2010

(strong but not severe)

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* **One of the worst natural disasters in modern history; the death toll was over 160,000**
* The epicentre was 25km from Port-au-prince (the capital city). Most buildings in the city were destroyed


* occurred along a __**transform fault**__
* Landslides affected slums in the hillsides surrounding the city
* presidential palace collapsed

Reasons for Increases in Impacts: **Land Pressure**

Approximately 1 billion people live on degraded land

* poverty and lack of land availability leads to unsustainable farming practices

examples:

* deforestation
* soil erosion
* clearing mangroves for monoculture
* mangroves protect against floods


* only planting one crop, reducing biodiversity
* (see image)

Reasons for Increases in Impacts: Urbanization

Around the world, people are increasingly moving from rural areas to urban areas

* slums and squatter settlements are rapidly growing in developing countries

Vulnerability to diasater

(resiliency vs reliablity)

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both are _____ in developing countries

**Resiliency**

* the rate of recovery from the occurrence of the event

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**Reliability**

* the frequency with which protective devices against disasters can withstand disaster

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\*both tend to be lower in developing countries

Risk Assessment vs Risk Management

__**Risk Assessment**__

* Involves estimating the likelihood that a particular event will harm human health

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__**Risk Management**__

* Involves deciding whether or how to reduce a particular risk and at what cost

Risk

Risk is viewed by individuals as subjective.

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What we as individuals consider to be risky is based on our own probabilistic risk assessments.

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Risk assessments are not a modern phenomenon.

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Example:

* there are religious examples that aim to assess the risk to the soul based on moral conduct

Probabilistic risk assessment

Pascal (1657)

The value of accepting Christianity outweighs the value of rejecting it because the risk of rejecting it is too high

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a: Soul saved

b: eternal damnation

c: miss out on pagan fun

d: pagans not “punished”

Event Data

It is best to have at least 100 years of Data

* This amount of data is not available for several hazards (high magnitude earthquakes, nuclear accidents, etc)

Economic loss data

often less available than event data

* there are many currencies worldwide; values must constantly be adjusted for inflation

Statistical analysis

R = P \* L

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R = Risk

P = Probability

L = Loss (economic, health, etc.)

Interpreting probabilities

Cumulative probabilities sum to 1 therefore we can read each probability as a percent

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example:

If an event has a probability of 0.01, that event has a 1% chance of happening

Based on the data above, what is the total overall property loss risk?

risk for each (top to bottom)

0 x 0.0950 = 0

10,000 x 0.030 = $300

50,000 x 0.015 = $750

100,000 x 0.005 = $500

add the totals up:

$

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Event tree

May be used when the event database is too small 

* Chain of events leading to a disaster must be known 
* Probabilities within the chain must be calculable 

Estimating risk

example:

What is the risk associated with a technological system?

* the reliability of a technological system is a product of 2 factors

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system reliability:

human reliability vs system reliability

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With careful design and maintenance, a system such as a nuclear power plant or a space shuttle can achieve a high degree of technological reliability.

Human reliability is usually lower than technology reliability and is difficult to predict

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Suppose the technological reliability of a nuclear power plant is 95% and the human reliability is 75%.

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The overall system reliability is then 71%

(95 x 0.75 = 71)

human reliability

Even if we could make the technology 100% reliable in the previous example, the overall system reliability would be 75%.

(100 x 0.75 = 75)

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The dependence of even the most carefully designed systems on unpredictable human reliability helps explain disasters such as the Chernobyl nuclear power plant meltdown and the *Challenger* and *Columbia* space shuttle explosions.

The greatest risk factor leading to a reduction in life expectancy is ________

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poverty

Risk Analysis

The greatest risks many people around the world face today rarely make the news media.

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The greatest risk factor leading to a reduction in life expectancy is __**poverty.**__

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Why?

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**Poverty is linked to:**

* malnutrition
* increased susceptibility to fatal diseases
* lack of access to health care
* contaminated water supplies

Risk Analysis cont.

The reduction of poverty would lead to increased life expectancy and improved human health.

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Indirect benefits of reducing poverty:

* stimulates economic development
* reduces environmental degradation
* improves human rights

Risk Perception

Risks are generally not well perceived by people.

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* many people are not concerned with high-risk activities that are done voluntarily

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**Examples:**

* smoking (1 premature death per 2 participants)
* motorcycling (1 per 60)
* Driving a car (1 per 4200)

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Yet, the same people may be concerned about West Nile Virus (1 per 1 million) or airplane crashes (1 per 9 million).

Factors influencing risk perception

Risks from hazards are more accepted by people if the risks are perceived to:

* be voluntary vs imposed
* be under our control vs controlled by others
* have clear benefits vs little or no benefit
* be natural vs anthropogenic
* be statistical vs catastrophic
* be familiar vs exotic
* affect adults vs children

Improving risk perceptions

How can we become better at perceiving risks?

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* carefully evaluate what the media presents


* compare risks
* the question is not “is it safe” it is “ how risky is it compared to other risks”
* Concentrate on the most serious risks to your own health and don’t worry about risks over which you have no control

Changing nature of risk

There has been a shift in risks over the last few generations:

* shift from infectious diseases toward chronic degenerative diseases
* accidents shift from being more common in the workplace to rare due to improved safety regulations
* death rates from natural disasters are generally lower than they were in the past in developed countries

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As technology has advanced, it has introduced new hazard threats.

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**Examples:**

* nuclear power plants
* chemical spills
* pesticides
* ozone depletion
* acid precipitation

life expectancy

Life expectancy is increasing.

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We have a good ability to measure risks to our health quantitatively as a result of many years of scientific research.

role of gov’t in risk

There has been an increased role of government in risk assessment and risk management.

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Examples:

* departments devoted to disaster relief
* traffic safety
* public health

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There has been an increased involvement of laypeople in risk management decisions.

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Examples:

* Greenpeace
* Sierra Club

countries transition from developing to developed, there are increased expectations on their gov’t from the public

This creates pressure on governments and sometimes expectations of the people can be unrealistic depending on the wealth of the country.

**Potential exam Question:**

what is a disaster that could lead to deaths in a developing country but not in a developed country

Drought

**Potential exam Question:**

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Haiti earthquake occurred on what type of fault line?

Transform

**Potential exam Question:**

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Where is Haiti on the map?

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