L3- effects/biases/fallacies

Conjunction Fallacy

believing a conjunction is more probable than its conjuncts

the representativeness heuristic

judging the probability of an event by comparing its similarity to a stereotypical case

Base rate fallacy

ignoring the base rate when estimating probabilities

Gambler’s fallacy

mistakenly thinking that an event is less likely because it happened in the past, while ignoring that the underlying process if fair

Selection bias

when estimating the likelihood that sth occurs we fail to take into account how the evidence available was selected

Availability bias

we overestimate the likelihood that sth will occur when it is easy to recall or imagine

Survivorship bias

when estimating the likelihood that sth will occur we concentrate on previous cases that passed a selection process while overlooking those that did not

Framing effects

drawing different conclusions based on the same information because it is presented differently

Anchoring

a given piece of information can strongly influence our estimates

Loss aversion

we feel the negative impact of a loss more than the positive impact of a gain of the same size

Sunk cost fallacy

taking into account incurred and non-recoverable costs in deciding whether to continue with an activity or project (and thus continue to invest)

Endowment effect

we accord more value to sth simply because we own itC

Confirmation bias

the tendency to search for, interpret, favor, and recall information in a way that confirms someone’s preexisting beliefs or hypothesis

Belief bias

accepting the validity of an argument simply because the conclusion sounds plausible or you agree with the conclusion

Blind spot bias

detect reasoning errors much more easily in the reasoning of others than in our own reasoning

Dunning-Kruger effect

the tendancy for lay people to overestimate their knowledge while experts underestimate their knowledge

Bandwagon effect

we adopt beliefs too quickly when they come from people in our group and blindly follow the behavior of the group

Hindsight bias

we overestimate the probability that we would have accorded to the occurrence of a certain event after the event occurredOutc

outcome bias

retroactively judging a decision based on its result, not the evidence initially available