SUST 300: introduction to energy policy

rube Goldberg machine

significance: reflection of the energy system

What is Energy policy?

talking about resources that fuel society

Government

• Adress energy production, distribution, consumption

• includes legislation , international treaties, insenticves to investment

• Guidelines for energy conservation

  • Taxation

  • Political Ideology

Private sector

• corporate policy

• fiduciary responsibility to make money

• Consider ROI and Payback period

  • incentives offered by institution, navigating regulatory framework

Individual sector

They will consider:

• How affordable energy is

• How reliable energy is

• If it aligns with our principles

framework we use to make decisions

DEFINE ENERGY

consider decision making

different levels

energy

• complex system

• affects everyone→ regional vibrancy, affluence etc

• everything is connected with energy

• full of tensions and major issues

a way of moving wealth into one way or another

ability to do work/create heat

• resource that fules and powers society

• renewable + non-renewables

policy

framework used to make decisions about energy in society and in our daily lives

• sources we use

• how we distribute it

• how we consume it

• how to make it affordable

• reliability

Sustainability

meeting needs of today’s generation without compromising needs of future generations

needs to create systems that can run indefinitely

shock resistance

1. environmental

2. economic

3. social

energy transition

shifting from non-renewable (fossil fuel) to renewable (low carbon) system

how we generate, distrubute, and consume across all sectors of economy across the globe

IN THE CONTEXT OF THE ENERGY TRANSITION,

DISCUSS THE DRIVERS OF CHANGE AND THE

DRIVERS OF THE STATUS QUO

push and pull between the drivers create tension

think about opinion.

drivers of change

• climate change

• cost/ affordability

• gov policies

• tech improvements

• Energy security

  • Public Opinion

  • Corporate commitments

  • Financing

Climate chance as a driver

society is demanding action

commitments from diff countries

cost as a driver

• solar and wind costs dropping

• renewables are now cheaper

• storing in batteries is more feasible to store renewables

• Competitive operating costs for renewable facilities once built

gov policy

political commitments and ideologies

renewable energy standards

tax credits and subsidies

alberta change in 2015 when NDP came in carbon pricing change change again in 2019, got rid of carbon tax

tax credits and subsidies - instrument

carbon pricing and emissions regulation make fossil fuels more expensive while making renewable competitive

tech improvements as a driver

Solar and wind efficiency improving

smart grid tech AI

energy storage breakthroughs

energy security as a driver

countries want to reduce vulnerability to price spikes and supply disruptions

renewables cant be weaponized

diversifying: less dependence on volatile fossil fuel markets

Fort chipewyan

public opinion as a driver

• polling+ growing support for renewable energy

• advocacy goals

• younger generations prioritize it

• social media increasing awareness

ex. Data centres

corporate commitments as a driver

green washing and green hushing

companies facing pressure

helps against volatile fossil fuel prices

financing as a driver of change

-10 years ago

central lenders would incentivise people to work on green projects

now, moving bak to supporting fossil fuels

INSURANCE: increased risk due to climate change, increasing support for climate change

Sovereign wealth fund→financing lever for energy transition targets no longer?

drivers maintaining the status quo

• reliability and baseload power→ FF plants can run 24/7

• existing infrastructure→ existing pipelines, power plants etc

• energy density and storage→ FF pack more energy and easier to store long term

• economic disruption→ jobs lost and economic upheaval

• grid stability→ designed around predictable fossil fuel generation, steady flows

• transportation fuels→ aviation, shipping, heavy trucking at scale

• industrial processes→ ex making concrete, requires high sustained temps

• energy security through reserves→ strategic petroleum reserves cannot stock pile renewables?

• cost transition→ enormous upfront capital investment

• technological maturity→ fossil fuels are proven while som ren. are developing

Video: how canada became a global energy power

discovery: leduc struck oil

pipeline booms oil, and gass

1949 interprovincial pipeline

natural gas at first burned off but discovered it was good

royalties boost economy

public resistance early 1970s

• impact on indigenous peoples

• russia expanding too

war on ukraine: regret russian oil dependance

changing dynamics and factors

“trapped resource”

What is a policy analyst?

A policy analyst evaluates public policies, laws, and government programs to understand their effectiveness and implications

Trained to think systematically about a problem, issue, opportunity, or

scenario.

Their findings help policymakers make informed decisions and improve or develop new policies that address societal needs and challenges.

provide evidence based insights and recommendation

collaborate

promote public welfare, economic growth, environmental sustainability, and other goals.

duties:

• research and analysis

• policy eval

• Recommendation’s

• policy development

• communication

• advocacy and outreach

• monitoring and impact assessment

what to know as a policy analyst

1. be systematic in your analysis

2. everything is connected

3. pen is mightier than the sword→ you can exert more influence with your word than external forces/combat: ability to write clearly and well

4. ability to brief trumps everything

thinking like a policy analysist

evaluates problem prom many perspectives, identify and rule out biases, seeks out connections in that system

DISCUSS WHAT IT MEANS TO BE A “POLICY ANALYST” AND SOME OF THE FACTORS YOU CONSIDER IN YOUR ANALYSIS

biases, your own and understanding the bias of your decision makers

research and provides advice

systematic approach

• econ

• political reg

• tech

• environmental

what is policy

framework for making decisions aodpted by organizations

key aspects:

• Deliberate system of principles

• Provides a framework for making decisions

• Helps achieve outcomes, quality longevity, etc

• Sets boundaries for actions and behaviours

policy development cycle

1. Issue Identification

2. Research and Analysis

3. Options→include option 0 (no change)

4. Decision Making

5. Implementation→ consider at every step

6. Evaluation/Performance Measurement

policy analysis framework ECONOMICS

• how does it affect local and regional economy? jobs skills required, ability to acquire skills, immigrant workers?

• Revenues , taxes, royalties

• investment attraction (foreign direct investment)

• consumer impacts/affordability

• commodity price exposure→ drive pricing up or down? affecting source revenue

policy analysis framework TECHNOLOGY

• maturity and reliability

• understood/new?

• reliable/safe?

• access and available, transport energy, electricity grid/pipeline upgrades/required changes

• who will pay for these changes

policy analysis framework POLITICAL AND REGULATORY

• current political stance?

• was it a platform item/ campaign commitment?

• first nation support

• does it affect prov/ fed government→ alignment or contention

• views within gov parties

• existing internal policies or motions related to the project

• regulatory pathway→ what will the project have to navigate

policy analysis framework ENVIRONMENTAL AND SOCIAL

• how does this project drive green house gasses and what carbon costs will it incur

• environmental impacts→ how does it affect air, land, water, what resources are accessible→ water availability→ data centres

• public opinion

• landowner/neighbor opinion

tyoes of biases

why they matter: stakes are high, affects everyone, need public trust because it depends on objective analys

confirmation bias: seeking evidence supporting your initial assumptions

availability bias: overweighting recent events in long term planning→ adaptation from old bad decisions due to recency bias

status quo bias: default to existing systems rather than evaluating alternatives fairly

anchoring bias: stuck on first option

finding credible sources

recency

who wrote and credentials

claims verification?

authors motivations→ who paid for the research

look for red flags

ask peers

triangulation/lateral reading→ find the fact in 2 other sources

be aware of grey literature→ think tank

collaborate with libraries and experts

sources of info for energy

canadian gov

international energy

student energy

briefing

Concise communication designed to inform decision makers about key issues, considerations, and recommendations in a structured environment

readings

nutrient deficiency

template

Tobacco

federal advice briefing doc

“how to write briefing notes" page 2

u of c 2 readings template and tips

queens→

WHAT IS A BRIEFING NOTE, WHY IS A BN IMPORTANT, AND WHAT TYPES OF INFORMATION GO INTO A BN?

exam q

pen is mightier than sword

BIAS

when to write BN

providing advice to decision maker

when you or your boss have a meeting with someone , prepared in advance

providing general information / background to your team

formal record of descision

contents of briefing notes

• title

• date

• target audience→ who is it for

• issue

• key considerations

• Recommendation

• options

• background

• authors contact info

CTV clip oil revenues

budget surplus

from 9.4 bill deficit to 2 billion surplus

every one dollar of change =750000000

danielle smith focus on getting more oil

when to use ai

research, analysis, coding, event/trip planning, improve writing, translation, brainstorming, transcription

WHEN NOT to use ai

legal/medical advice, academic misconduct, where it feels wrong, when it requires sensitive or personal information

renewable energy

renewable within our lifetime in a timeline that makes sense to us

non renewable energy

only replenish in geological time (millions of years)

fossil fuels

needs to be combusted and emits carbon dioxide

carboniferous period

coals trees

oil small organisms

natural gas+ more heat and pressure than oil, turns to gas

scarcity issues

the less easy access to ff, the more extreme measure used to retrieve them, danger, bad for environment, etc

HOW ARE GEOGRAPHY AND GEOLOGY IMPORTANT IN THE CONTEXT OF ALBERTA’S ENERGY ECONOMY?

exam q

geology is the backbone of the hydrocarbon economy

after sediment and sedimentary basins

tidewaters

driven our economy since 1914

Massive amount of existing infrastructure (and jobs)

• Long history across Alberta has created significant societal and public

support (and opposition)

sediment

layering and cementation of particle

sedimentary basin

area of the earth’s crust that has been subjected to progressive sinking, and where sediments from the eros around it accumulate

heat from earth’s core cooks it into oil and gas

geologists case sedimentary basins

primary place to find coal

slate can create traps for oil

canada has ~25 basins

WCSB- western canada sedimentary basin

• layers

canadian shield

impermeable rock to the surface

Tidewater

can you sell your oil?

alberta does not have access to tide water

alberta ships a ton off the west coast

arctic accessdisputes

news article overhaul natural gas pipelines

billions of dollars

adding more pipeline capacity

monopoly TC energy nova gas transmission line

crown corporations

hoping for private sector intervention

private vs public investment?

WHAT VIEWS MIGHT A POLICY ANALIST HAVE OF A NON RENEQABLW FORMA OF ENERGY IN ALBERTA

looking logical and rational answers

economics

conventional oil

pressure releasing oil no technology, just basic pumping

oil in alberta

hydrocarbon, sulfur, nitrogen and oxygen

found in reservoirs

commonly extracted with well drilling

• Major contributor to alberta’s economy since 1914

• WCSB

• 500000 barrels a day

• significant reserves, mature conventional fields

• key private major international and domestic conventional fields

• 9% of worlds oil reserves 160B barrels

challenges: price volatility, market access, environmental concerns

cons: land disturbance green house gas emission levels, geopolitical tensions

oil drilling process

recovering conventional oil: drills straight down put casing in, flush out cuttings with drilling mud, cementig and perforation, pump jacksused when natural pressure subsides

what is in a barrel of oil?

varies widely

contains a handful of common hydrocarbons

how much oil is it?

159 litres

oil refining

transforms crude oil into usable oil and gas

separates oil by boiling points

further processes: cracking and reforming, turing long form hydrocarbons into mire “useful” forms

price of oil

biggest variables affecting price:

• cost of transporting the barrel to market

• quality of the oil

  • can be heavier vs lighter and contain different levels of impurities

• supply and demand

  • subject to unique regional uses, consumption, competition etc

USD

brent: reference point for price

alberta uses WCI

WestTexasIntermediate

Dubai is the southern region

Unconventional oil

oil sands

3

• peace river

• athabasca

• cold lake

1845 billion barrels of bitumen (highly heavy crude oil) in place

only 177 billion barrels are available based on current price and tech

produces 1.245 billion bbls /year

watch oil sands video

how to get it:

open pit mining , in-situ below 75 meters below ground→ steam liquified bitumen and oumped out to surface

higher costs to produce

steam assisten gravity drainage

Natural gas

video: methane with hydrocarbons, found in reservoirs above oil, can be dry (mostly methane), or dry (can contain ethane and butane), used to make refridgenrents and plastics

• when extracted with oil it is called associated gas

• processing: oil rand condensate emoval, water removal, separation of natural gas liquids, sulfur and carbonsiozide removal

• fewer emissions than coal

1/3 of natural gas in Alberta is sour (and accounts for 85% of Cdn sour natural

challenges: price volatility, market access, environmental concerne (methane)

46 natural gas “incidents”

LNG

liquified natural gas

cooled and compressedto become a liquid at approximately $-162^ ext{C}$. This process allows for easier storage and transportation, especially over long distances.

Largest producer is qtar

required large energy inputs for the process

require large upfront capital investments

exports are targeted to asia

Partnership:

• Shell

• Petronas

• Petro-China

• Mitsubishi

• Korea Gas

Corp.

wood fibre LNG

New LNG facility on

West Coast

• Operating in 2027

• As of September 2025 the project is 50% complete

• Regulated jointly by GovBC and Squamish FN

floatel: work camp is a ship, so there is no undue impact on the community

coal

4 types: lignite, sub-bituminous, bituminous, anthracite

higher grade, cleaner and more efficient

process: milled and burned to produce energy, primarily for electricity generation. It is a fossil fuel derived from ancient plant material, and its combustion releases significant amounts of carbon dioxide.

can be converted to gas or liquids

used in various industrial processes, including steel production. Its environmental impact includes air pollution and greenhouse gas emissions.

concern: mining practices

most co2 intensive fossil fuel when combusted

acid rain and smog

carbon capture and storage

ALBERTA

• lots of sub-bituminous good for steel making “coke”

• 222 12 mill tonnes

• moved my railA fossil fuel with four types: lignite, sub-bituminous, bituminous, and anthracite. Coal is milled and burned for energy, particularly in electricity generation, and is derived from ancient plant material. Its combustion releases substantial carbon dioxide and contributes to environmental issues like air pollution and acid rain.

• alot goes to export to china japan and korea

Coal mining in the eastern slopes

• 1976 coal policy set restrictions on coal development in sensitive areas to protect the environment and water resources. The policy aimed to balance economic benefits with ecological preservation.

• 2020 - GOA rescinds coal moratorium of 1976

  • No consultation, no notice.

  • Commence hearings on opening of new coal mines in the Eastern Slopes

• 2025 - Jan – GOA ends the moratorium to “protect the public interest from being sued”, cancels a bunch of previous direction to regulators “to avoid confusion”, and doubles down on ACIMI.

  • NO mountaintop removal

  • NO new open-pit coal mining in the Eastern Slopes

  • NO new coal mining proposals without use of best water practices

YOU ARE A POLICY ANALYST WORKING FOR AN

INTERNATIONAL COAL COMPANY. YOU ARE

ANALYSING CONSIDERATIONS FOR INVESTING

IN ALBERTA. WHAT MIGHT YOU ADVISE?

• Focus Exclusively on Metallurgical Coal: Limit investment targets strictly to steelmaking (coking) coal for export, leveraging existing CN rail infrastructure connecting to West Coast ports^[1].

• Prepare for High Policy Volatility: Unpredictable regulatory changes—such as the reversal of the 1976 Coal Policy—led to $16 billion in company lawsuits and $143 million in government settlement payouts, demonstrating significant sovereign and political risk^[2].

• Navigate Strong Public and Municipal Opposition: Coal development in sensitive areas like the Eastern Slopes faces widespread opposition from local landowners, municipalities, and environmental groups concerned about water safety and land protection^[3][4].

• Defer Capital Expenditure Until Rules Clear: Hold off on major land acquisitions or mine construction until the province finishes establishing clear frameworks for land-use boundaries, reclamation security, and environmental oversight^[4].

HOW MIGHT A POLICY ANALYST SEE NON-

RENEWABLE FORMS OF ENERGY IN ALBERTA?

Abundant resources

• Strong public support

• Strong public opposition

• Technology maturity

• Attracts capital fairly easily

• Massive amount of existing infrastructure

• Climate impacts

• Liabilities (i.e. orphan wells)

• Royalties help drive provincial revenues

WHAT VIEWS MIGHT A POLICY ANALYST HAVE

OF RENEWABLE FORMS OF ENERGY IN

ALBERTA?

renewable energy

energy obtained from sources that are virtually inexhaustible and replenish naturally over a small time relative to human lifespan

does not emit green house gas emissions

solar panals, photovoltanics

Photovoltaic cells convert light to

electricity

residential and commercial use

crystaline sillicon

creating prosumers

most abundant renewable resource on earth

NOOR

The world’s largest concentrated solar project in Morocco,

operated by the Moroccan Agency for Sustainable Energy (MASEN)

Heliostat

- Instrument consisting of a large mirror moving with the arc

of the sun and reflecting light in a specific direction.

Solar Power Tower

Solar furnace that uses a central tower to

receive focused sunlight from surrounding mirrors

Concentrated Solar Power

- Process of using mirrors and lenses to

focus a large area of sunlight into a smaller area

Photovoltaic

– Able to convert solar radiation to electrical energy

concentrated solar power

Heat from the sun

is used to create

steam (and then

electricity).

NOOR is a significant example of this technology, harnessing sunlight through mirrors to generate energy in an efficient manner.

solar in alberta

Significant amount of solar radiation (i.e.sunshine) in Alberta that

increases as you move south.

travers solar project lots of potential!

WInd energy in alberts

uses wind turbines ( mechanism)

scalability

alberta; one of the best wind resources in canada

abundant in southern half where population is

buffalo plains wind farm→ international investors

Challenges:

• need for transmission lines

• grid reliability

• land use conflicts

turbine

A device that converts kinetic energy from wind or water into mechanical energy, typically used to generate electricity in wind farms or hydroelectric plants.

intermittency

refers to the variability in energy supply from renewable sources like solar and wind, due to changing weather conditions and time of day.

cost of wind and solar

• significant cost curve reductions

• due to technological advancements and economies of scale, making renewables more competitive.

• adding unique cost structures and financing models specific to renewable energy projects, influencing their overall affordability and implementation.

• over next 20 years, not much decreasing WE THINK

energy storage in alberta

types

• Electrochemical storage (batteries)

  • Mechanical storage (pumped hydro,

  compressed air, flywheels)

  • Thermal storage (heating a material)

  • Chemical storage (hydrogen)

adresses intermittenc problem

capital costs coing doen

helps adress remote, off grid

moratorium on renewables

• aug 3 2023 DS announced a pause on approvls for energy projects over 1 mega watt

• initial;y for 6 months

• why?

  • land use conflicts

  • viewscapes

  • reclamation issues

• 118 projects affected, investment and jobs stalled

• stakeholder views varied

• AUC now to follow an “agriculture first” approach

  • 35km “viewscape” buffer

  • Developers to require reclamation security

• must be able to coexist with livestock and crops

• only applies to renewables, not oil and gas

• Why no wind but you are allowed coal mines?

Guest lecture:

ENERGY ANALYST CONSIDERATIONS OF GEOLOGY AND GEOGRAPHY

WHAT VIEWS MIGHT A POLICY ANALYST HAVE

OF RENEWABLE FORMS OF ENERGY IN

ALBERTA?

Geology – N/A

• Geography – Abundant wind and solar resources in parts of

province

• Energy workforce is highly skilled (but may need upskilling)

• Intermittency, but can be mitigated with battery storage or othger

forms of power

• Large electricity grid in place (but aging)

• Very limited safety/environment risks

• Costs coming dow

danielle smith and doug ford talk

advancing proposal of westcoast pipeline

expect the green light- priority over north shield pipeline

doug ford wants to work with for northern shield pipeline

needs labour

solar and sheep farm diversification

agrivoltaics. cool opportunity for farms to benefit from the soalr contracts

clean electricity snapshot

92% of renewable growth comes from alberta

over 660 mill investment in alberta

meeting coal phase out goals

new job created

cost dropping rapidly with tech innovation

clean electricity snapshot

92% of renewable growth comes from alberta

over 660 mill investment in alberta

meeting coal phase out goals

new job created

cost dropping rapidly with tech innovation

supply and demand with energy

very sensitive→ hard to store, turning on a light switch increases demand

albertas energy market vocab

wholesale market competative → generators offer electricity, aeso operates system, paid for produced energy

pool price→ the wholesale market's clearing price for electricity, Generatorssubmit offers indicating how much electricity they can provide and at what price. Offers are ranked,generally from lower to higher price, and the system dispatches resources needed to meet demandsubject to system constraints.

changes in albertas energy market and pricing(guest lecture)

price reflectign ease of transmission

price reflecting real time ramping

zero congestion planning

optimal transmission planning→ cost benefit analysis

who pays? TRTP

land use rules→ affects new and old companies that need repair

wildlife mitigation→ how to balance?

agriculture land

TIER and carbon credits→ heavily policy reliant

solar policy recyclihng

taxation and reclamaiton security

long term investment

guest lecture:

energy policy in alberta: the municipal perspective

goal: attract new investment that reduces global emissions

• needs strategic approach to unlocking ability to produce energy for rapidly decarbonizing world

• need to add value→ goal of 100 billion by 2050

• 
  

Guest lecture: