unit 1

john keegan

former director of inelligence

logic

system of reasoning, draws conclusions based on empirical information gathered over time

policy-directed intelligence

policymakers influence intelligence, cherry picking data

intelligence ideal

every office hopes to achieve, independent of political assimilation

policy reality

policymakers drive intelligence must resist pressure

Policy Intelligence under Trump

accept DIA and went beyond it, president overruled intelligence professionals, June- midnight hammer was justified, Israeli intelligence was certain. obliterated Iranian uranium, selected evidence, shifted ns estimates in late 2025, trump insisted on being able to use a nuclear weapon with no evidence, presidential overrule used to justify epic fury ceasefires expired, by march deemed no nuclear weapons without IC references, similar to JCPOA of 2015, policy directed info of nuclear capability to distract from political scandals.

policy directive under fdr

evidence of German threat in south America, British falsify

heaclitus

different historical perspectives

robert frost

afternoons what morning never expected

clauswitz

time changes everything

bernoullis law of warning

pressure and enhancing very wisely in floods clarity and utility of intelligence tend to vary immensely. time ability to respond declines. two always in evening- warning is more useful the earlier it is occurring

estimates of intelligence

normally overestimate of best judgements, intelligence normally underestimate how much they learn from intelligence reports, owners of intelligence production conduct post work judge events that were more readily perceivable.

primary function of intelligence

prive an advantage and avoid harm

current intelligence

day to day events

estimative intelligence

what might be or what might happen

research intelligence

in depth study of an issue

scientific and techniacal intelligence

info about foreign technologies

warning intelligence

gives more than something urgent may happen immediate attention

1973 taxonomy

base or encyclopedic intelligence, provides a database, current estimate intelligene- correlation to pursuit

function

structure of an organization, usually structural functionalist model usually applies here

basic approval

intelligence cycle most important and functional

6 steps

requirements planning and direction, goods, mapping resources, prioritization, collection gathering data, disciplines, osint humint, geoint, sigint, volume management get essential data, processing and explanation, data structuring- grow, disparate date standardized into formats, data deciphering translating foreign text, intelligence prepared intel for analysts. analysis and production (synthesis assessments and delivering. destination- delivery, optimization, timing, evaluate and feedback assessments value, fluid adjustments.

gina

avoid harm

2023

inform, to protect, avoid harm, foreign policy

5 eyes

New Zealand, US, UK, austrailia, canada

IC

18 agencies ( 2 indpendent odni and cia)

Overt

osint

covert

operations most detected by an adversary

clandestine

not detected by an adversary

osint

open source

human

human

comint

communications

fisint

foreign ingals

imint

images/geoint

sigint

signals

elint

electronic

masint

measured signals

humint

about misdirection, media images of humint are powerful, humint is the oldest collective discipline, utility of humint is hotly debated, enhanced interrogation is controversial,

photint

photographic intel, infrared is imint, masint, data

5 fundamental stages of intel

acquisition: acquiring intel (humint), delivering intent has to be sent to its users, acceptance: must be accepted by its user, must be believed, credibility, Interrogation: sources assemble complete picture, implementation: commence decision makers

george washington

pro intel, alexander the great- intel,

1384

lithuanian guidebook of military info, lack of intel for jerusalem

1300 English spy agency started

Moghul intel, intel affects decision making

Sherman Kent

founder of intelligence analysis

British say about cycle

cycle isn’t always followed, east romans

ooda coop

observe, overt, decode, act

reality of humint

espionage- subset, get an advantage, covert is adversary knows, clandestine is will never be detected

imint

predictions or process, to detect, classify,

BLUF

bottom line up front, writing standard where main conclusion is determined

nro

national reconnaissance office, space-based platforms

nga

processing of the inquiry, 2003/04 reflect misuse of geo int 3 distinct fields, geopolitical ifo, isr, surveillance,

npic

1961 founded by emerhaus, analyze satellite imagery

parro

workforce

coverage strategy

1949 first nuclear test, detected radioactive particles

1962

humint signals, over based platforms, electronic warfare officers, office in nebraska

poltans

ship, cargo, missiles, carried

cuba

photint, all source in cuba cases, sigint

sigint

commint, elint, fisint

1958-59

comint, elint, electronic signals, system for foreign communication

carribean

cobra ball, cuba drive, pegasus, sigint, eurohack, bombers, sigint drones, isn’t clandestine

Rosman

was a NASA site there intel 1980, now NSA, DAD 1981 special on NBC, several mission interrupt USSR communications, Russia and Cuba, Lourde SIGINT base outside USSR, supported Russia satellite, not really covert, shut down at end of cold war, turned to natural forest

FAPSI

sigint of KGB

Spectrum mapping

now or modified emitting

Isolation

precautions maintained signal interest is more

Clandestine

non communication wave/forms

Lop Nor

Chinese tech test, intel capability, GEOINT, nuclear test

98

India and Pakistan, first test 74 brief general, CIA- missed signals, Pakistan, officials

all source intel

analyss also are subject matter common

strategic intel

analytic product, daily brief, finished intel, national intelligence estimate- ½ way, manners on individual intel, indidcator based warning, argue heart of intel mission, theings you epect to see in regards to a threat, very useul, based on prior experiences, before a threat emerages

indication

activity occuring

economic indicator

prices increasing or decreasing

mobilization

not covert, est: to high, identify in advance, identifiable indicator, fears on capability, tells you about intent, uses to collect evidene of capability

mobilization

most observable

necessary components

indicator based

reality

mobilization means war

approach can be problematic, preconceived notions- dangerous

top secret, highest land, eyes only

step 4 dissimination

always watching for a strategic attack, warning intelligence matters, timing, targets cancellation, paradox of arguing, successful warning

President’s daily brief

current , right now 1947 CIA, first to recount the sport electronically

IC pruces NIE

collective judgement within ODNI, NIC

SNIE

specific specialize topics, PBS and NIES are most important

techint

intrusion

FOVO

official use onlyy

warring function

very old

Christopher Andreans Take

the secret world, very machiavelli

tractical vs strategic intelligence

tactical- enemy military capability, strategic objective and plans to achieve

operational

what to do wehn contacted

Fm34-37

well written

Hittites

diplomatic source, had threat assessment egypt reported against them, against interrogation, egypt reported on threats of the sunni

1 cesear

new tactical intelligenceB

Byzantine

started on statecraft

Sun Tzu

come intel principles, 5 types of spies, local inside, reverse, died, living