module 4

Hindsight bias is the tendency to believe, after learning an outcome, that we could have __________ it all along.

predicted

Overconfidence refers to the tendency to __________ our abilities, knowledge, or predictions.

overestimate

People tend to see patterns in random sequences because our brains are wired to look for __________ and predictability in the world.

order

The __________ is the misunderstanding of probability where a gambler believes that after several heads, the next flip is more likely to be tails.

gambler's fallacy

To prevent misleading influence of intuition and bias, psychological science relies on __________ evidence and critical thinking.

empirical

Psychological research reveals that humans frequently overestimate their knowledge and abilities, leading to cognitive __________.

errors

Overconfidence can lead people to make risky decisions, underestimate challenges, and ignore critical __________.

feedback

Without rigorous scientific methods, we are easily misled by these __________ such as hindsight bias and overconfidence.

biases