Domains of Change References Revision

Wadge & Aspinall, 2014

• Volcanic hazard and risk at Soufriere Hills has been assessed in a constituent and quantitative manner for 14 years due to highly variable eruptive activity, hazard scenarios and analysis have been used to formulate forecasts for future hazard events and quantify risks to individuals and society 

• The accuracy of forecasts was tested using the Brier Skills Score resulting in an accuracy of 83% for skills critical to life

• An expert group within the UK Commonwealth Office undertakes regular reviews of activity alongside the Scientific Advisory Committee on Montserrat Volcanic Activity that came into being in 2003 using a probabilistic approach to determine risks due to stochastic nature and complexity or volcanic processes for these eruptions

• There is a danger in reducing confidence in forecasting by applying too many caveats of uncertainty; therefore, it is important to strike a balance in communicating these risks to non-scientists

Smith, 1981

• During the early 1970s, there were several environmental disasters in the US that provided forcible reminders of the inaccuracy of the nation's response to natural hazards

• Against this context, White and Haas theorised that these disasters only arise when man fails to harmonise with nature and that technology and science are integral factors in this vulnerability; there is a need to connect society and technology 

• They see that the misapplication of technology and a misunderstanding of society has caused disaster research to stall and instead suggest an interdisciplinary approach to understanding how communities are impacted when disasters strike and how families and communities can better prepare for and recover from major disasters

Oppenheimer, 2011

• Understanding and managing risk is complex, especially in the unlikely occurrence of a super-eruption; risk is defined as the interactions between natural hazards and human conditions and can be conceptualised in terms of a cost-benefit approach to provide an initial step towards risk reduction

• There has been a recent acceleration in research into the assessment of physical, social, political, economic and environmental conditions that make a community more or less susceptible to the impact of hazards; this is then applied to policy formation and risk assessments 

• When considering social vulnerability, it has been shown that disasters disproportionately impact the poorest, least powerful as poverty can lead to living in the most exposed places, scarce access to education, health services and political exclusion; there is often little funding left for development in poorer countries where hazards occur often

• Mitigation improvements can also come from fostering community resilience and interdependence that facilitates the means and support for mass evacuation; eruptions can also provide an opportunity to accelerate social, political and economic change 

• Many communities tolerate proximity to geographical hazards due to perceived benefits outweighing long term risks; these communities can be resilient and cope often through greater collective action during times of crisis showing how the creativity and resilience of human populations should not be underestimated

Loughlin et al., 2015

• Humans have always found volcanic activity to be fascinating and often chose to live close to volcanoes due to the benefits they bring; however, this is balanced with potential impacts including loss of life, damage and disruption to critical infrastructure and stress to fragile environments

• These impacts can be short or long term, and the risk extends beyond areas of immediate proximity such as ash having impacts hundreds of kilometers away 

• Managing volcanic risks is a worldwide problem with large magnitude eruptions being one of the only natural phenomenon with the potential for global disaster; progress has been made in scientific forecasting of an eruption in the identification of earthquakes, ground deformation, gas release, rock fracture or magma movement yet this relies on good monitoring networks and even when these are in place unrest does not necessarily lead to an eruption

• There are challenges in reducing risk as it requires international collaboration, an appreciation of long time scales and effective communication between different groups

• Scientists must provide timely and impartial information, hazard assessments and forecasting to civil authorities so they can make effective risk based decisions; to turn good science into effective risk reduction requires good communication, strong long term relationships, coordination among stakeholders, effective public engagement and positive capacity of communities in places; there must also be single messages

• Early warning systems are useful in rapidly communicating the status of volcanic activity to those who need it in simple and understandable manners; these should be practised and accompanied by effective administrative frameworks, land use planning and efforts to influence the behaviour of populations through community participation and establishing trust

• There is a need to better identity and quantity areas at risk, strengthen local and national coping strategies, and strengthen national and international capacities

Barclay et al., 2019

• Volcanic eruptions can be prolonged and of variable intensity, a survey revealed 63% of primary volcanic deaths occurred after the first week of activity and 44% of deaths were associated with citizens returning to a high hazard zone due to dynamic pull and push factors coupled with forecasting uncertainties and rapid landscape changes that shift physical and social wellbeing

• The strongest pull factors are related to a desire to protect assets to reduce income losses, place attachment, a desire for a traditional way of life and a sense of purpose that arises from living in close proximity to ancestral lands

• Push factors are associated with poorly organised shelter provisioning, under-resourcing of shelters and reductions in wellbeing, health and personal security 

• This was seen in the La Soufriere, St Vincent eruption in 1979 and the Tungurahua, Ecuador eruption 1999

Barclay et al., 2015

• There is a strong link between livelihood insecurity, poverty and vulnerability to volcanic hazards with many who rely directly on the volcano for their livelihoods suffering the greatest impacts

• For smaller volcanic islands or isolated nations volcanic activity can devastate a country’s economy as well as industries associated with different levels of development; however, social capital can offset economic impoverishment due to the positive impact of strong social networks in mitigating the impact of eruptions

• Alongside different cultures and religions, women, the very old, the very young and those with disabilities are often among the most vulnerable due to limited mobility and ability to take direct action

• Trust is a fundamental factor influencing how people interpret the information and advice they receive, as volcanic crises are often uncertain effective management requires a balance between precaution and reassurance, there may be false alarms which undermine the credibility of risk management teams but if a more relaxed approach is taken the consequences of a disaster must be born

• Discussions is encouraged among scientists, officials and the public about hazards to build trust in advance of crises; communities can also use their own informal social networks and social media to communicate during disasters

Andreastuti et al., 2023

• Knowledge, experience, risk perception, communication and drills shape good community responses; these require both top-down and bottom-up communication and joint work between scientists, decision makers and the community in a culturally sensitive manner

• Effective early warning protocols including risk analysis, monitoring, hazard analysis, forecasting and warnings can be useful when appropriately communicated and trust is built

• In Indonesia, a scale with four levels is used and is communicated to the public through the MAGMA website, these alter levels describe the potential impact of volcanic behaviours; there is also a community based early warning system that seeks to strengthen community capacity through knowledge improvement, rescue training, the identification and safe places and encouragement of independent responses

• Community action depends on psychological condition, leadership and preparedness culture which can be built up through evacuation drills

Francis & Oppenheimer, 2004

• Risk reduction has been characterised by two approaches, a technological and scientific monitoring and engineering approach and a more ‘radical’ approach that states that the reason people get killed by natural disasters is due to marginalisation and socio-economic factors

• Political and economic solutions are now required to reduce risk in line with a broader shift from technology focused top-down strategies to those aimed at improving the social and economic position of people within the community 

• Event trees can be useful in allowing volcanologists to define hazard scenarios, but increasingly social scientists are being consulted to add insight on vulnerability, exposure, capacity and resources to offset this that help to tolerate levels of risk

• While volcanological science is of great value, it must be embedded into a broader strategy to reduce volcanic risk that promotes community preparedness

Cronin et al., 2004

• Indigenous tribes are able to connect with the signs and languages of eruptions in a manner that natural scientists cannot, an example of this is seen in the ability of Indigenous peoples living on Ambae Island, Vanuatu to identify precursor events of eruptions

• Passed down through oral histories, the people are able to recognise the death of trees around Lake Vui, unusual bubbling and lake disturbances as signs that an eruption is soon to occur

• Furthermore, they implement effective management strategies in their unique form of land zoning, where the summit of the volcano is viewed as sacred land and therefore visits are forbidden; in these ways, the Ambaean tribe effectively utilise their traditional knowledge in order to mitigate the impacts of an eruption

Gabrielsen et al., 2017

• The integration of social scientists opens up to new, diverse perspectives on the management of volcanic crises, a key part of this being the inclusion of Indigenous scholars and the peoples they represent 

• Indigenous tribes living on the flanks of volcanoes possess deep, spiritual connections to volcanoes that allow them to connect with the signs and language of eruptions in a manner that natural scientists cannot; therefore, they have much to contribute to decision making and management techniques; however, this knowledge is often under utilised and excluded from dominant narratives 

• This is seen in the Ngati Rangi Indigenous tribe living on the southern plants or Mount Ruapheu who are familiar with the mood, signs and language of the mountains 

• There are now efforts to better recognise the knowledge, improve communications and work with local governments to improve outcomes for the tribe and local communities

Pardo et al., 2015

• The Māori tribe, living in close proximity to Mount Ruapheu in New Zealand, offer insights into the manner in which Indigenous tribes engage in hazard management; these peoples use oral histories, place names, songs and proverbs passed down through generations in order to communicate the histories and risks associated with eruptions

• Although natural scientists have historically judged these methods as less rigorous than their own, by integrating Indigenous forms of knowledge, experiences and observation scientific narratives can learn from their successes and improve their own management techniques; this can also help to reduce the social vulnerability of Indigenous groups

• However, this raises concerns over power and questions if Indigenous tribes desire to be ‘helped’

Rougier et al., 2013

• Uncertainty and risk are key challenges in assessing natural hazards, there is a need to increase transparent quantification of these factors so that informed choices can be made to reduce risks and evaluate mitigation strategies; uncertainties must be transparently assessed, honestly reported, effectively communicated and available for scrutiny by all parties

• Vulnerability to natural hazards is increasing around the world as a result of increasing concentration of populations and infrastructure in urban areas, development, changes to the natural environment etc.; this impacts both developed and developing nations but may have a larger impact on the latter due to a lower adaptive capacity, worse building materials, a lack of regulations, planning and potential government corruptions

• Scientists have a role in minimising loss of life, economic losses and disruption through assessing risks and analysing uncertainty; they have different roles in the quiescence, imminent, event and recovery stages which involve gathering data, assessing risk and documenting the hazard to improve future resilience 

• There are challenges in false alarm reporting, model limitations and gaps in science, action and completion of actions that must continue to be improved in order to increase resilience to natural hazards in the future

Rougier et al., 2013

• The risk manager acts as an agent for choosing between interventions that affect the impact of future hazards, this involves concern with aleatory and epistemic uncertainties

• As hazards are uncertain there is a need to quantify this uncertainty, a dominant method for this is probability which is favoured as it has simple axioms and limitations can be addressed by using sensitivity analysis 

• Risk can be defined quantitatively as a mathematical explanation of loss that can be structurally modelled and used to form hazard maps that take into account aleatory uncertainties, the footprint of hazards and probabilities of loss distribution

Whyte, 2017

• Indigenous and allied scholars are creating a field to support Indigenous peoples’ capacities to address issues of environmental change including Indingeous climate resiliency plans, declarations and academic papers

• Indigenous studies often reflect the memories and knowledges that arise from Indigenous peoples’ living heritages as societies with stories, lesions and histories

• They offer critical, decolonising approaches to how to address climate change, this arises from how our ways of imagining the future guide our present actions

• This can be linked to the management of volcanic hazards to decolonise knowledges on volcanic crises and form more holistic and sensitive methods of volcanic risk reduction

Wright et al., 2023

• After the extensive damage caused by the 1980 eruption of Mount St Helens in Washington there was acceleration of risk management techniques, this included expanding staffing, deploying new instruments, improving eruption forecasting by using an event tree for the first time and creating new pathways for communications

• Hazard Working Groups were established to unite scientists, emergency and land managers, tribal nations and community leaders in the common cause for the promotion of risk reduction and by the 2004 eruptive sequence there was improved response and resilience 

• The 2004 eruption exposed further issues that demanded a renewed focus on hazard communication and the participation of organisations within working groups; by 2008 the knowledge of the volcano system had improved alongside forecasts

• All of these management systems have been successful in improving the response to eruptive periods of Mount St Helens, and it is clear that the system works best when communication of hazard and risk information is clear and efficient

Lopez-Saavedra & Marti, 2023

• Volcanic islands are one of the most vulnerable environments to natural hazards due to their social, economic and political contexts as well as multi-hazard nature

• Much scientific knowledge and management focuses on individual hazards and risks, there is a need to better implement the multi-hazard concept into disaster reduction policies to establish cross-sectoral, climate change oriented, socially inclusive and multi-risk management systems based on scientific knowledge and linked to critical societal demands

• The Canary Islands are an active volcanic archipelago in the Atlantic Ocean, islands experience cascading extreme events combined with demographic factors of high population, tourism pressure and urban expansion into risky areas

• Although monitoring of many hazards is in place, emergency plans are limited in all being very similar for different hazards and lacking a multi-hazard perspective; this means the potential for cascading events is underestimated as well as not taking into account the influence of climate change on hazard events

• The combination of irregular and scarce knowledge on the multi-hazardous nature of the islands combined with urban expansion and demographic increase mean many homes and infrastructures are located in hazardous zones to complicate the already fragile management system; protected areas and better land use planning may help improve this 

• Risk reduction approaches for vulnerable areas including volcanic islands must incorporate the multi-hazard approach rather than considering individual hazards and risks, this should be formed from improving knowledge on cascading events and effectively educating the population

Sparks, 2003

• Forecasting is a central goal of volcanology, the ability to forecast is being advanced by new technology including broad-band seismology, satellite observations of ground deformation and improved spectrometers for volcanic gas studies; this is occurring alongside improvements in computer speed, data transmission, analysis and modelling techniques 

• Studies of volcanic samples, experiments and theoretical modelling have provided insights into the dynamics of magmatic systems to show how ground deformation, material failure, groundwater disturbances and degassing are formed through interactions with magmatic ascent and therefore precede and accompany eruptions

• In understanding the physics of these processes and how they may progress forecasting can be attempted, this must be expressed in probabilistic terms and take into account uncertainties

• Volcanoes are complex and dynamic systems controlled by the interactions of many processes that are non-linear and stochastic leading to many uncertainties; however, probabilistic forecasting can be achieved through working with and analysing physical processes

• Models can simulate complex patterns of eruptive fluctuations and transitions to provide a conceptual framework for forecasting

Timmreck, 2012

• Large volcanic eruptions are important drivers of natural climate variability; therefore an assessment of the role of volcanoes in the climate system compared to other forcing factors is important in understanding past and future climate variability 

• There have been advances made through comprehensive modelling showing how volcanoes impact atmospheric compositions and dynamics, as well as impacts on ocean dynamics, hydrological and carbon cycles and on marine biochemistry over multiple time scales

• These climate models are dependent on the quality of the model, volcanological input data and the treatment of aerosol size and distribution resulting from chemistry and radiation calculations; model intercomparison helps to improve and calibrate these models as well as tackling challenges such as simulating NH winter climate response to large tropical eruptions