PAL Unit 2 Source Analysis

Principle of fair elections

Elections should be free, regular, open and equal: all eligible adults can vote and stand, each vote carries equal weight (one person, one vote), voting is secret and free from intimidation, results are counted accurately by an independent body, and the outcome reflects the will of voters. Use it as the yardstick to judge each part of the US system.

First Past the Post / Simple Majority

The candidate with the most votes (a plurality) wins, even without over 50%. Used in most US congressional and presidential state contests. Fair link: simple and decisive, but can waste votes cast for losing candidates and favours a two-party system.

Primaries

State-run elections where party voters choose who will be their party's presidential candidate (by choosing delegates). Can be closed (party members only) or open (any voter). Fair link: gives ordinary voters, not just party insiders, a say.

Caucus

A local meeting of party members who openly discuss and vote (often by gathering in groups) to choose delegates for their preferred candidate. Run by the party, takes longer than a primary, and has lower turnout (eg Iowa).

Electoral College

The body of 538 electors that formally elects the US President and Vice President. Voters in each state choose electors, not the President directly. A candidate needs 270 to win.

Electors

People chosen by each party in a state to cast that state's electoral votes for the candidate who wins the state's popular vote. Each state has as many electors as it has Senators plus Representatives (DC has 3). They vote in mid-December.

Candidate

A person who runs for public office, such as President. In the US, a presidential candidate must be a natural-born citizen, at least 35 years old and a US resident for 14 years, and usually runs for a major party (Republican or Democrat).

Battleground states

States where the vote is expected to be close and could go to either party, so candidates focus their time, advertising and money there. Often used interchangeably with swing states.

Swing states

States with no long-term loyalty to one party, whose voters can swing between Democrats and Republicans from election to election. Opposite of 'safe' states. 2024 swing states: Pennsylvania, Georgia, North Carolina, Michigan, Arizona, Wisconsin and Nevada (93 electoral votes in total).

Winner takes all

In 48 states and DC, the candidate who wins the most votes in the state gets ALL of that state's electoral votes. Maine and Nebraska split theirs by congressional district. Fair link: votes for the losing side in a state count for nothing.

National Convention

A large party gathering held in summer of election year (2024: Republicans in Milwaukee in July, Democrats in Chicago in August) where delegates formally nominate the presidential and VP candidates and adopt the party platform.

Delegate

A person chosen through primaries and caucuses to represent voters at the party's national convention and formally vote for the presidential nominee. Republicans needed 1,215 delegates to win in 2024 and Democrats needed a majority of pledged delegates (1,976).

Outline of the process of a presidential election

1) Candidates announce and campaign. 2) Primaries and caucuses (Jan-June) choose delegates. 3) National conventions (summer) formally nominate candidates and VP picks. 4) General election campaign and debates. 5) Election Day: first Tuesday after the first Monday in November, voters choose electors. 6) Electors vote in the Electoral College in mid-December. 7) Congress counts the votes on 6 January. 8) Inauguration on 20 January.

Reasons for voluntary voting in the US

Voting is seen as a right and a matter of individual liberty, so people should be free to choose whether to take part. Elections are run by individual states (federalism) and there is no national push for compulsion. Supporters argue forced votes are less meaningful. Result: lower turnout (roughly 63-65% of eligible voters in 2024) than compulsory systems like Australia (90%+).

Purpose of primaries and caucuses

To let party members and voters (not just party leaders) choose their party's presidential nominee, narrow a large field of candidates to one, test candidates' appeal before the general election, and select delegates for the national convention.

Purpose of national conventions

To formally nominate the party's presidential and VP candidates, adopt the party platform (policies), unify the party after the primary contest, and launch the general election campaign with big media coverage.

Importance of swing states in the campaign

Because of winner-takes-all, only a few close states decide the winner, so candidates focus visits, ad spending, and policies on them and largely ignore safe states. Fair link: voters in swing states have far more influence than voters in safe states, challenging political equality.

Why was the Electoral College introduced?

It was a compromise at the 1787 Constitutional Convention between those wanting Congress to choose the President and those wanting a direct popular vote. Founders distrusted direct democracy, wanted to protect smaller states and states with large non-voting populations (such as slave states), and found a national popular vote impractical at the time.

What is the Electoral College and how does it elect a President?

A system where each state gets electors (Senators + Representatives, with DC having 3). Voters in each state vote for a candidate, the winner takes all of that state's electors (except Maine and Nebraska), and electors then formally vote in December. The first candidate to reach 270 of 538 electoral votes becomes President.

How many electors are there and where does the number come from?

538 electors. 435 (members of the House of Representatives, based on state population) + 100 (Senators, two per state) + 3 (Washington DC, granted by the 23rd Amendment in 1961).

Why is 270 the 'magic number'?

270 is a majority of the 538 electoral votes (half is 269, so a majority is 270). If no candidate gets 270, the House of Representatives chooses the President.

Advantages of the Electoral College

Protects the influence of smaller states (every state has at least 3 electors). Forces candidates to build support across different regions. Usually gives a clear, decisive winner and encourages a stable two-party system. Keeps federalism, with states running elections. Contains disputes to individual states' recounts.

Disadvantages of the Electoral College

A candidate can win the popular vote but lose the election. Votes are unequal (a Wyoming vote counts for more than a California vote). Winner-takes-all wastes votes for the losing side in a state. Campaigns focus on swing states and ignore others. Electors could be 'faithless' (rarely happens). Fair link: challenges the principle of equal votes.

Process of congressional elections

All 435 House seats (2-year terms, one member per district, FPTP) and about one-third of the 100 Senate seats (6-year terms, two per state) are elected on the same day as the presidential election in presidential years. Each party runs primaries to choose candidates first. A majority of 218 is needed to control the House and 51 to control the Senate.

2024 Congress results

Republicans won control of both chambers. Senate: Republicans 53, Democrats 47 (34 seats were up, Republicans gained four seats). House: Republicans 220, Democrats 215 (a very narrow majority). It created a 'Republican trifecta' with the White House.

What is gerrymandering?

Drawing electoral district boundaries to favour one party or group. 'Packing' puts opposing voters in one district so they win by a huge margin. 'Cracking' splits them across several districts so they never win. The word comes from Governor Elbridge Gerry's 1812 oddly shaped district.

How gerrymandering can influence an election outcome

A party can win a majority of seats while winning fewer total votes, as it makes many seats 'safe' and reduces competition. Reduces voter influence and accountability. Fair link: breaks the principle of equal vote value and fair representation. The Supreme Court (Rucho v Common Cause 2019) ruled federal courts cannot decide partisan gerrymandering cases, though racial gerrymandering is illegal.

What is a mid-term election?

An election held halfway through a President's four-year term (2 years after the presidential election, in November). All 435 House seats, about one-third of the Senate, many governors and state positions are contested. The next one is 3 November 2026.

Why are mid-term elections significant?

They act as a referendum on the President's performance. The President's party usually loses seats, which can end their control of Congress (producing divided government and gridlock) and make passing laws harder in their last two years.

Equality of political rights and principles of fair elections (check against p220 of your textbook)

Equal political rights mean all adult citizens have an equal right to vote and stand for office regardless of race, gender, wealth or religion. Key principles: universal suffrage, equal value of each vote, secret ballot, free speech and media, regular elections, independent administration, accessible voting and fair funding/transparency.

Australian political rights: 1902 Franchise Act

The Commonwealth Franchise Act 1902 gave (non-Indigenous) women the right to vote and stand for federal Parliament, one of the first countries to do so. However, it excluded most Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander people. Expanded political equality, though not fully.

Australian political rights: 1962 Indigenous voting rights

In 1962 the Commonwealth Electoral Act was amended to give all Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander people the right to enrol and vote in federal elections (enrolment was voluntary until 1984). Major step toward equal political rights.

Australian political rights: 1967 Referendum

A 1967 referendum, which got over 90% support, changed the Constitution so the Commonwealth could make laws for Aboriginal people and so they would be counted in the census. A symbolic milestone for equality and recognition.

Other Australian political rights events

1924: compulsory voting introduced federally to increase participation. 1973: voting age lowered from 21 to 18. 1984: Indigenous enrolment and voting made compulsory like other citizens.

Threats to the US electoral system

Disinformation and fake claims of fraud, foreign interference and cyberattacks, AI deepfakes, voter suppression (ID laws, polling closures), gerrymandering, big money in politics (super PACs), political polarisation and falling trust, threats and harassment of election officials, and violence (eg 6 January 2021 Capitol attack).

What are PACs and Super PACs?

PACs (Political Action Committees) raise money from members and donors to support candidates, with limits on donations. Super PACs can raise and spend unlimited sums from individuals, corporations and unions on ads supporting or opposing candidates, but must not coordinate directly with campaigns. Made possible by the Citizens United v FEC (2010) ruling.

How PACs/Super PACs influence elections

They pay for huge amounts of advertising, voter turnout, and canvassing, which can shape voter opinions and give wealthy donors major influence. In 2024 Elon Musk gave roughly $119 million to his pro-Trump America PAC, and Future Forward was the main pro-Harris super PAC. Fair link: raises questions about equal political influence.

How a candidate can win the popular vote but lose the Electoral College

Because electoral votes are allocated by state with winner-takes-all, a candidate can win big in some states (wasting extra votes) and narrowly lose key states. A candidate can also lose popular votes in safe states but win enough close states to reach 270. Happened in 2000 (Gore lost to Bush) and 2016 (Clinton, who won by about 2.9 million votes, lost to Trump).

Ways majority rule is reflected in the US electoral system

Candidates win by getting the most votes (FPTP) in each state or district. A majority (270) of electoral votes is needed to win the presidency. A majority of delegates is needed to win the party nomination. Majority of seats (218 in House, 51 in Senate) gives party control of Congress. Limit: the President may win without a national majority of votes.

2024 case study: How Trump emerged as the Republican candidate

Despite losing 2020 and facing four criminal indictments, Trump kept strong support among Republican voters. He won the Iowa caucus (Jan 2024) and then won nearly every primary. Rivals like DeSantis and Haley dropped out (Haley after Super Tuesday in March). He survived an assassination attempt in July 2024 and was formally nominated at the Republican National Convention in Milwaukee.

2024 case study: Why Trump chose JD Vance

Vance, a Senator from Ohio and author of Hillbilly Elegy, was loyal to Trump and appealed to working-class voters in the Rust Belt (Ohio, Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin). He was young (39), strengthened Trump's messages on the economy and immigration, and was a strong media performer. Announced 15 July 2024.

2024 case study: How Harris emerged as the Democratic candidate

Joe Biden won the primaries but dropped out on 21 July 2024 after a poor debate performance against Trump on 27 June and pressure from his own party over his age. He endorsed his Vice President, Kamala Harris, who quickly secured enough delegates (via an early virtual vote) and was formally nominated at the Democratic National Convention in Chicago in August.

2024 case study: Why Harris chose Tim Walz

Walz, the Governor of Minnesota, was a former teacher, National Guard veteran and Midwest politician with a relatable, folksy image who appealed to working-class and rural voters. He balanced the ticket and could help win Midwest swing states (Wisconsin, Michigan, Pennsylvania). Chosen on 6 August 2024.

2024 result in numbers

Trump won 312 electoral votes to Harris's 226, and swept all seven swing states. Trump also won the popular vote with about 49.8% (over 76 million votes), around 2.3-2.5 million ahead of Harris, the first Republican to win the popular vote since 2004. Trump became the 47th President and the first since Grover Cleveland to win non-consecutive terms.

2024 case study: Significance of swing states

Pennsylvania (19 electors) was the biggest prize and both campaigns focused on it. Trump won all seven swing states (PA, GA, NC, MI, AZ, WI, NV), flipping the six that Biden had won in 2020 (PA, GA, MI, AZ, WI, NV) and holding North Carolina. Wisconsin's result pushed him past 270. A few close states decided the outcome, even though the national popular vote was wider.

2024 case study: Harris campaign strategy and spending

Harris raised over $1 billion in about 15 weeks, outraising Trump's campaign, and ended with debt. Focused on the 'Blue Wall' swing states (especially Pennsylvania) and on abortion rights, protecting democracy, and the middle class. Relied on large TV advertising, celebrity endorsements and the super PAC Future Forward (donors included Dustin Moskovitz).

2024 case study: Trump campaign strategy and spending

Trump raised less through his official campaign but relied on outside groups and super PACs, especially Elon Musk's America PAC (roughly $119 million reported) for door knocking and turnout in swing states. Focused on the economy, inflation and immigration, used large rallies and appeared on podcasts and social media to reach young men.

2024 case study: Key factors in Trump's victory

Voter anger about inflation and the cost of living (the economy was the top issue for Trump voters, 51% in NBC exit polls). Concerns about immigration and the border. Anti-incumbent mood and Biden's unpopularity, which hurt Harris (who had a short 107-day campaign). Trump gained with Latino voters, young men and non-college voters, while Democrats lost millions of votes compared with 2020. Trump also used new media and Musk's ground game.