Week 2 - chapter 3: aging in the world and Canada

3 factors that account for the shift to an older population

1. Decline in birth rates

   • Total fertility rate: average number of births per women in her life

     • lower in developed countries, high in least developed countries

2. Decline in death rates

3. increased life expectancy

Population aging will affect…

social systems (economy, healthcare, labour markets, and pension programs

trend in less developed nation

high fertility rates, low life expectancy and portion of older people

Change of intergenerational relationships in less developed countries

1. young rely on older person for their well-being

2. older adults can’t count on younger family members for support

Less developed nations need solutions to support aging pop that…

fit their cultures and current economic conditions

Developed nation have more __ people

older , highest in Europe countries

challenges faced in developed nations

• increasing costs for healthcare and pensions —> moderate by staying in workforce longer and change pension policies, raise taxes to cover increased costs, or increase national debt

• rethink long-term care for older pop.

• need to provide more services for their aging population

Western societies and how they handled aging

1. have a problem-centred approach that make traditional view of old age appear old-fashioned and ineffective

2. moved away from family-centred support for older people —> pension and other welfare programs

issues in developing countries regarding supporting aging

1. don’t have social services or economic resources to help elderly

2. countries can’t afford housing, health, or welfare services (that developed countries set up)

May need a hybrid system that combine fam. support w/government program

Canada’s demographic forces to older age

1. Decreased fertility rates

2. increase life expectancy

3. immigration (played smallest part)

How immigration helped w/aging

helped keep population young —> dropped the portion of people over 65 years for a period

Immigration wave history of Canada

1. first decade of 20th century —> most came as children or young adult (helped keep pop young)

2. During the Great Depression —> mostly European males (account for drop in people >65)

   • immigrant did more, changes face of Canadian society

3. Early 2010s —> mainly asians

4. now more likely from China and South Asian countries

Death rate

number of deaths per 1000 people in a pop.

Reason for decreased infant mortality rate

1. control of childhood disease

2. better prenatal care

3. improves nutrition

what accounted for high infant and child mortality in mid-19th century epidemic?

cholera, typhus, and smallpox

main causes of death in adulthood

non-infectious, chronic and degenerative diseases

What are the risk factors of older people during COVID-19?

• underlying condition like diabetes and heart/lung

• seniors in nursing homes that show distancing and isolation more difficult

When did Canada begin it’s demographic transition?

around 1850 as birth and death rates decreased

2 phenomena’s that affect birth rate

1. Baby boom (after WWII, 20 year long) —> explosion in fertility rates

   • age-specific birth rate nearly doubled for 20 year women

2. Baby dust

   • low fertility rate fell below 2.1 (rate needed to replace pop)

   • led to sharp drop in # young people —> sped rate of pop. aging

Age-specific birth rate

number of births per 1,000 women in a given age group

Conditions that caused the baby boom

1. A good economy (people felt confident about their future)

2. large number of immigrants (child-bearing age)

benefits of baby boom

reverse trend of decreased fertility rate and aging population

2 trend of the baby dust

1. birth control pills

2. increase participation of women in labour force

Will an increase in birth rate solve the aging problem?

no

• more women having children in older age —> childbearing in short span

Stages of demographic transition

• Stage 1 —> high fertility and mortality rate

  • small pop

  • slow and varied pop. growth

  • higher portion of young people, small portion of old people

• Stage 2 —> high fertility - mortality start to decline

  • pop. being to slow as more children survive

  • pop. explosion can occur and society may get younger

  • small portion of elderly

• Stage 3 —> fertility decline and mortality decline further

  • pop. growth begin to level off at larger size

  • stage where young high-growth to older low-growth pop.

  • older pop. begin to grow as a portion of the pop.

• Stage 4 —> low fertility and mortality

  • low pop. growth and large portion of older people in pop.

Prospective aging

measure focuses on # years left to live instead of # years lived

• allow demographers to compare societies w/diff life expectancies & societies @ diff. point in time as life expectancy increase

• one measure of prospective aging uses # of years of remaining life expectancy as the start of old age

  • (15 years - average life expectancy serve as starting of old age)

  • diff.. in other societies

how affects of old aging shape retirement and work

• Many older people delay the start of retirement

  • realize longer life expectancy will mean more years of retirement and shrinking pension payments due to inflation

What does prospective aging help societies w/?

better calculate start of pension plans & other benefits

• less developed societies (w/lower life expectancy) - start programs below 65 year

• developed nations - start above 65 years

3 stages of the demographic transition in Canada

• Stage 1 (before 1850) —> high death, birth rates, and immigration (in Ontario & Maritimes)

  • kept average age low (doubled in in 2016)

• Stage 2 (after 1850) —> major decline in birth & death rates

  • unlike Europe where birth rates stayed high before dropping and death rates declined

  • Canada both drop caused pop. to transform from young to older nation

• Stage 3 (today) —> low death and birth rate - aging pop.

  • pop. pyramid from wide-base —> triangular —> rectangle

what do these graphs show?

3 important trends:

1. Dramatic growth in size of older age cohort

2. higher portion of women compared to men in oldest cohorts

3. movement of Baby Boom cohorts into old age

differences in centenarians, male vs. female

female:male —> 5:1

• centenarians projected to increase 5x

New issues with the growing centenarians in Canada

• higher rate of poor health, disabilities, and institutionalization

  • 90 year old had more

• most 85 above resided in seniors’ residence, nursing home, or long-term care facility

ratio of men:women

89 men: 100 women

Projected ratio of men:women will be even in the future. What are the implications of this?

Women:

• lower rate of widowhood for older married women

  • if experience widowhood, will do so in later years

  • need more support

Men:

• more social support form spouse as age

Indigenous seniors

have young pop due to higher fertility rate and low life expectancy

• small population of seniors

• growing rapidly as fertility rate decline and life expectancy increase

  • median age will increase

  • Inuit will have youngest pop. and Métis oldest among Indigenous pop.

• live in population centres than rural/reserves

• higher rate of chronic illness (ex. high bp, arthritis, etc)

English/French in older age sexes

women worked only in the home adn spoke mother tounge

• have less ability in French/English compared to men

3 stage of later life seniors chose to move

1. retirement stage —> freedom from having to live near work, move to pleasant climate/relaxed lifestyles

   • People in good health, grown children, good income

   • Canadian snowbirds

   • when person health decline, five up seasonal visits leading to migration stage

2. Disability stage —> physical limitation/long-term illness lead to live closer to people who can help

   • this type of move increase w/age

3. Severe disability stage —> older people move to long-term care home/long-term care

   • absence of healthcare support leads to this type of move

Apocalyptic demography

view aging in as a economic burden or crisis for society

• aging pop. —> GDP growth slow —> working-age pay more to support elderly —> public budgets strain under burden of high cost of health and retirement

Overall dependency ratio

used to gauge burden old and young place on people in middle age

• ratio read as the # of dependent persons per 100 people of working age

dependency ratio went up

• declines as fertility decline & senior dependency ration increase

Crude dependency rates

based solely on number of people in each group tell only part of story

• ex. not all people in labour force age take part in labour force, etc

does not address economic burden of older population

Ways that decrease the impact of pop. aging on the economy & dependency ratio (moderate cost of large pop.)

1. large # of immigrants join the labour force —> supports aging domestic pop.

2. women increase participation in labour force in middle/later life —> reduce burden implied by dependency ratio

3. many work past 65 —> reduces demand on public pension

4. government encourage to delay Canada Pension and the Old Aage Security benefits until age 70

dependency ratios work best at estimating…

impact of pop. aging on public pensions and healthcare costs

Dependency ratios ignore the fact that…

people save in one part of their lives and use these savings later

• in future retirees will have to rely on own money

dependency ratio leads to demographic determinism

assumes population dynamics determine future of social relations and social institutions

senior dependency ratio

number of people age 65 + /pop. age 20-64

Youth dependency ratio

number of people age 0-19/ pop. age 20-64