Climate Change Evidence: VCE Politics - Units 3 & 4

1 Piece of Evidence on Burning Fossil Fuels

1) Global absolute coal use in 2025 reached 166 exajoules, being responsible for 15.6bn tons of CO2 emissions.

Analysing Burning Fossil Fuels - Aus coal exports and value. Who does it go to and how much do they emit

Australia exports 147 million metric tons of metallurgical coal for 2024-25, worth $40bn. 13% goes to China, who is responsible for over 50% of global coal-fired emissions, due to its energy and manufacturing needs.

Deforestation - 2 Pieces of Evidence

1) Dec. 2025 - The Climate Council found that 3.7 million hectares of global tropical forests were lost, and produced roughly 6% of global CO2 emissions in 2023.

2) Nearly 10 million hectares of forests are cut down each year, and 10% of CO2 emissions are caused by deforestation

Analyzing Deforestation - Australian deforestation and agriculture link

2) In 2025, Australia lost 350,000 hectares of natural forest in 2025, equivalent to 68 million tons of CO2. Of this, approximately 77-89% was converted to agriculture, an industry that records about $100bn a year.

Transportation - 2 Pieces of Evidence (Vietnam and Australia)

1) In 2024, in Vietnam, car sales increased by 12.6%, and total emissions then grew by 7.6%.

2) 22% of Australia’s emissions came from transport, ranking 3rd overall (2024).

Negative Impacts of Global Interconnectedness (Global Trade)

1) In 2025, global trade hit a record high, surpassing $35tn according to data from the UN Trade and Development. Consequently, 20-30% of 2025’s 60bn tons of CO2 emissions are attributed to global trade.

Negative Impacts of Global Interconnectedness (Australian Exports)

2) Australia exported $127.4bn of coal in 2022/23, and in 2023, Australia exported 1.15 billion tons of carbon dioxide emissions.

Positive Impact of GI

193 countries, plus the EU, attended COP30 in Brazil. It led to agreeing to mobilize $1.3tn annually by 2035 for climate change action by 2035, as well as doubling adaptation finance by 2025 and tripling it by 2035.

USA Paris Agreement Withdrawal

a)      Jan. 2026 – USA withdraws from UNFCCC and Paris Agreement. In the executive order, Trump says they “no longer serve American interests.”

Exec Order 1

b)      Jan. 2025 – USA executive order titled “Unleashing American Energy” saying the US will “rebuild” the “nation’s economic and military security” by eliminating the EV mandate and prioritizing oil, natural gas, and coal.

Exec Order 2

c)      April. 2025 - “Reinvigorating America’s Beautiful Clean Coal Industries” Executive order states domestic energy production like coal must increase to “secure America’s economic prosperity and national security.”

US consequence of withdrawing from Paris

1) US withdrawal from Paris will lead to an extra 4bn tons of GHG emissions by 2030 according to Climate Brief.

USA CAT

2) USA is rated “Critically Insufficient” in CAT

USA fossil fuel production

3) USA remains top producer of oil and natural gas. In 2025, the USA exported 2.8 million barrels per day of petroleum to 130 countries.

China renewable capacity created

a)      2024 - China creates 1200GW capacity of wind and solar energy ahead of government schedule. Xi Ji Ping states, “China will not slow down” or “reduce its support for international cooperation.”

China NDCs

b)      2025 - China submits NDCs to reduce economy wide emissions by 7-10% from peak levels. This will unlikely lower emissions though, as China is on track for a 10-16% increase in gross emissions. (Highly Insufficient on CAT)

China Energy Law

c)      Nov. 2024 - China passed its first energy law, which will promote the development of wind and solar power, with 200 million kilowatts of wind and solar power installed.

China renewable investment

d)      2024 - China’s renewable energy investment was over USD $625bn.

Positive Consequences of China (plateau and power mix)

·       China’s CO2 emissions peaked in 2024-25, and are now at a plateau, meaning they have stopped rising.

·       Clean Electricity Capacity is worth 52% of China’s total power mix as of early 2026.

China CAT

·       China’s targets are rated “Highly Insufficient” by the Climate Action Tracker.

China fossil fuel imports

·       China remains the world’s largest fossil fuel importer, accounting for roughly 18% of the 2025 world total

China CO2 emissions

·       China remains the world’s top CO2 emitter, producing over 13 billion tons annually (2024).

China cost for carbon neutrality

·       Economic Interests – It is estimated to cost between $10tn and $15tn USD for China to achieve carbon neutrality according to its Ministry of Ecology and Environment.

China fossil fuel reliance

·       Energy Needs – Fossil fuels supply about 83-86% of China’s primary energy consumption. Therefore, it is unrealistic for the state to simply abandon the source.

CC Challenge - China Inequality

·       Inequality – At COP29, China led the push for developing states to not need to contribute to the $300bn a year pledge to provide developing countries with mitigation and adaptation funding. They do not believe developing countries have an obligation to do so. China’s climate envoy Liu Zhenmin said, “it is the obligation of developed countries to support developing economies in this matter.”

Aus CC Bill

·       2022 - Climate Change Bill is passed making Net Zero by 2050 a law. Albanese states it is to “secure the opportunities of Australian net zero future.”

Aus NDCs

·       Sept. 2025 - Australia’s NDCs are updated and set a 62-70% lowering of emission compared to 2005 levels by 2035.

Aus powerplant

·       Jan. 2026 - Australia’s largest coal fired power plant, Eraring in NSW, is announced to stay open until 2029 despite being meant to close in 2027. It will emit roughly 33 million to 35 million tonnes of CO2 between now and its closure.

Positive Consequences of Australia’s Climate Change Action

·       Australia’s total GHG emissions fell by 2.1% in the year to December 2025 compared to 2024.

·       Australia is officially projected and legislated to reach net zero greenhouse gas emissions by 2050.

Aus CAT

• Australia’s targets are rated “Insufficient” by the Climate Action Tracker.

Aus fossil fuel exports/global CO2 contribution

• Aus exported $160bn in fossil fuels in 2023-24

• Aus in 2024 accounts for 1% of global CO2 emissions. But when considering fossil fuel exports, it is 4.5%

Challenges to Aus resolving CC (economic interests (2) and energy needs)

·       Economic Interests – Australia needs to attract and invest $7-9tn of capital to 2060 from international and domestic sources to achieve net zero. Also, fossil fuels account for about 39% of Australia’s total commodity exports (Beyond Zero Emissions)

·       Energy Needs – Fossil fuels account for 89.8% of Australia’s total primary energy consumption mix (2024-25)

COP30 and COP29

·       Nov. 2025 - COP30 outcome to mobilize $1.3tn annually by 2035 for climate action, and triple adaptation finance by the same year.

·       Nov. 2024 - COP29 saw developed nations pledge to mobilize $300bn a year to support mitigation and adaptation in developing nations.

ICJ Ruling

       July 2025 - ICJ ruled states have a legal and human rights obligation to address climate change. It says states must exercise “due diligence” to limit warming to 1.5C.

Obligations of States in Respect of Climate Change, Advisory Opinion, 2025 I.C.J.

Positive Impacts of UN

·       According to the Climate Council, since the Paris Agreement’s implementation in 2015, we can see:

a) Low-emission sources now make up 40% of global electricity

b)      Global clean energy investment climbed to $2.2tn. Before Paris, it was about $300bn.

d)      Roughly 83% of the global economy has a net-zero emissions target, whereas 0 countries had formal targets in 2015.

Inability of UN Action (Current warming tracking and CAT NDCs)

·       According to the Climate Action Tracker, the world is still on track for 2.6-2.7-degree global warming above preindustrial levels by 2100.

·       The Climate Action Tracker says that only 3 countries submitted NDCs that are 1.5C compatible.

Shell Stock Exchange

·       April 2024 - Shell threatens to leave the London Stock Exchange for the New York Stock Exchange, as the New York one is move positive on fossil fuel investment.

Shell net carbon intensity

·       Mar. 2024 - Shell weakens its goal to cut “net carbon intensity” of all carbon products from 20% by 2030 to only 15-20%. Shell claims this is due to business priorities and oil and gas “will be needed.”

Shell investment

·       2022 - Over the year, Shell invested $8.2bn in low carbon energy and non-energy products, a third of total cash expenditure for the year.

Shell emissions

·       2024 - Shell emits a total of 1.2 billion tons of C02 emissions and thus have emitted more than all but 6 states in the whole world.

Positive Consequences of Shell (methane, total carbon emissions, net zero)

·       Shell achieved a 78% reduction in total methane emissions by the end of 2025 compared to 2016 levels.

·       In 2026, Shell announced its total carbon emissions dropped from 1,154 million tons to 1,137 million tons. This is from direct operations and product sales.

• Shell, on April 16, 2020, announced its net-zero emissions target by 2050 or sooner.

Negative Consequences of Shell

·       2024 - Shell’s CO2 emissions were 1.2bn tons

·       An independent analysis by Reclaim Finance finds that Shell is projected to overshoot 1.5C as early as 2034 (2022 publication date)

Challenge for Shell resolution

·       The vast majority of Shell’s profits come from fossil fuels. In the 2^nd quarter of 2026 alone, net profits were $9.84bn. Abandoning fossil fuels is simply unrealistic for Shell.

COP Ineffectiveness

·       2025 – The European Parliament, after COP30, published an article saying COP30 represents “slow progress” and is “insufficient.” This is mainly due to no fossil fuel phase-out roadmap being announced.

Strengths of PA

·       As of 2026, 194 parties (193 states and the EU) are currently in the Paris Agreement.

·       Around 38 Paris Agreement states have officially adopted net-zero pledges by a certain year (most by 2050) into law as of 2026.

Weaknesses of PA

·       As of Oct. 2026, 39 parties of the Paris Agreement are overdue and late to submitting their 2035 NDCs.

·       2024 and 2025 were respectively the hottest and 2^nd hottest years on record. Also, in 2024, global average temperatures officially breached the 1.5C threshold.

·       The CAT finds that current policies are projected to result in 2.6C warming/increase by 2100.

Consequences for Stability

• Strengthening global governance frameworks - 194 states still follow the Paris Agreement, etc.

Consequences for Change - Migration

• Migration: The World Bank’s 2021 Groundswell Report projects that, by mid-century, up to 216 million people could become internal climate migrants across six regions if warming continues unabated. In 2025, Tuvalu’s first 280 climate migrants started to arrive in Australia. Forces Australia to shift domestic policies and adopt the climate visa.

Consequences for Change - Conflict

• Conflict:  In 2025, a conflict broke out in the Sahel region between nomadic herders and sedentary farmers because of dwindling fertile land and severe water scarcity.

Consequences for Change - Hunger

• Hunger: In October 2022, World Bank research found that 43 million people could be pushed below the poverty line by 2030 due to rising temperatures, thus causing hunger. Furthermore, by 2050, the risk of hunger is projected to increase by 10-20%, and child malnutrition is anticipated to be 20% higher compared to a no-climate-change scenario

Greenpeace Perspective

Oct. 2021 - Annie Leonard of Greenpeace says “Climate change is happening right now, and it’s getting worse” and that it is a “code red for humanity.”

USA perspective

On 23 September 2025, Donald Trump told the United Nations General Assembly that climate change is "the greatest con job ever perpetrated on the world," explicitly labeling the carbon footprint a "hoax"

Aus perspective

Sept. 2025 - Following NDC announcement, Albanese says "It's the right target to protect our environment, to protect and advance our economy and jobs

October 2026 - While Albanese says the renewable transition is needed, the government still supports “existing industries” (coal)

China perspective

Xi Ji Ping - April 2025 - "Green transformation is… a new engine for economic and social development."

Shell perspective

March 14, 2024, CEO Wael Sawan of Shell said, "Energy... has made an incredible contribution to human development.” “Meeting that demand while tackling climate change is an urgent challenge."

UN perspective

May 2018 - UN Secretary General Antonio Guterres - “existential threat” “We must use all our resources to build a sense of urgency.”

Aus Tuvalu Deal

November 9, 2023, Australia and Tuvalu signed an unprecedented cooperation agreement, the Falepili Union. It offers 280 Tuvaluans—2.5 percent of the islands’ population—permanent residency in Australia each year.