VCE Politics - Units 3 & 4: Exam Evidence

1 Piece3 of Evidence on Burning Fossil Fuels

1) Global absolute coal use in 2025 reached 166 exajoules, being responsible for 15.6bn tons of CO2 emissions.

Analysing Burning Fossil Fuels

Australia exports 147 million metric tons of coal for 2025-26, worth $38bn. 23.8% goes to China, who is responsible for over 50% of global coal-fired emissions, due to its energy and manufacturing needs.

Deforestation - 2 Pieces of Evidence

1) Dec. 2025 - The Climate Council found that 3.7 million hectares of global tropical forests were lost, and produced roughly 6% of global CO2 emissions in 2023.

2) Nearly 10 million hectares of forests are cut down each year, and 10% of CO2 emissions are caused by deforestation

Analyzing Deforestation

2) In 2025, Australia lost 350,000 hectares of natural forest in 2025, equivalent to 68 million tons of CO2. Of this, approximately 77-89% was converted to agriculture, an industry that records about $100bn a year.

Transportation - 2 Pieces of Evidence

1) In 2024, in Vietnam, car sales increased by 12.6%, and total emissions then grew by 7.6%.

2) 22% of Australia’s emissions came from transport, ranking 3rd overall (2024).

Negative Impacts of Global Interconnectedness (3)

1) In 2025, global trade hit a record high, surpassing $35tn according to data from the UN Trade and Development. Consequently, 20-30% of 2025’s 60.63bn tons of CO2 emissions are attributed to global trade.

2) Australia exported $127.4bn of coal in 2022/23, and in 2023, Australia exported 1.15 billion tons of carbon dioxide emissions.

3) Global shipping makes up 3% of global GHG emissions, and of this, 40% of the goods transported are fossil fuels.

Positive Impact of GI

193 countries, plus the EU, attended COP30 in Brazil. It led to agreeing to mobilize $1.3tn annually by 2035 for climate change action by 2035, as well as doubling adaptation finance by 2025 and tripling it by 2035.

USA Paris Agreement Withdrawal and 2 Exec Orders

a)      Jan. 2026 – USA withdraws from UNFCCC and Paris Agreement. In the executive order, Trump says they “no longer serve American interests.”

b)      Jan. 2025 – USA executive order titled “Unleashing American Energy” saying the US will “rebuild” the “nation’s economic and military security” by eliminating the EV mandate and prioritizing oil, natural gas, and coal.

c)      April. 2025 - “Reinvigorating America’s Beautiful Clean Coal Industries” Executive order states domestic energy production like coal must increase to “secure America’s economic prosperity and national security.”

Negative Consequences of US action (Paris Withdrawal Consequence, CAT, Production)

1) US withdrawal from Paris will lead to an extra 4bn tons of GHG emissions by 2030 according to Climate Brief.

2) USA is rated “Critically Insufficient” in CAT

3) USA remains top producer of oil and natural gas. In 2025, the USA exported 2.8 million barrels per day of petroleum to 130 countries.

2 Challenges to US Climate Action

1) Economic Interests - It is also estimated that the USA needs at least $12tn to go net-zero, depending on the scope of upgrades.

2) Energy Demands - Fossil fuels power roughly 82-83% of the total US energy supply.

4 of China’s responses to the issue (Creating energy, NDCs, energy law, investment)

a)      2024 - China creates 1200GW capacity of wind and solar energy ahead of government schedule. Xi Ji Ping states, “China will not slow down” or “reduce its support for international cooperation.”

b)      2025 - China submits NDCs to reduce economy wide emissions by 7-10% from peak levels. This will unlikely lower emissions though, as China is on track for a 10-16% increase in gross emissions. (Highly Insufficient on CAT)

c)      Nov. 2024 - China passed its first energy law, which will promote the development of wind and solar power, with 200 million kilowatts of wind and solar power installed.

d)      2024 - China’s renewable energy investment was over USD $625bn.

Positive Consequences of China (plateau and power mix)

·       China’s CO2 emissions peaked in 2024-25, and are now at a plateau, meaning they have stopped rising.

·       Clean Electricity Capacity is worth 52% of China’s total power mix as of early 2026.

3 Negative Consequences of China Inaction (CAT, Imports, Emissions)

·       China’s targets are rated “Highly Insufficient” by the Climate Action Tracker.

·       China remains the world’s largest fossil fuel importer, accounting for roughly 18-23% of the global total, and 13.8 million barrels per day.

·       China remains the world’s top CO2 emitter, producing over 13 billion tons annually (2024).

3 Challenges to China CC Action

·       Economic Interests – It is estimated to cost between $10tn and $15tn USD for China to achieve carbon neutrality according to its Ministry of Ecology and Environment.

·       Energy Needs – Fossil fuels supply about 83-86% of China’s primary energy consumption. Therefore, it is unrealistic for the state to simply abandon the source.

·       Inequality – At COP29, China led the push for developing states to not need to contribute to the $300bn a year pledge to provide developing countries with mitigation and adaptation funding. They do not believe developing countries have an obligation to do so. China’s climate envoy Liu Zhenmin said, “it is the obligation of developed countries to support developing economies in this matter.”

3 Aus Responses to CC (Bill, NDCs, Power Plant)

·       2022 - Climate Change Bill is passed making Net Zero by 2050 a law. Albanese states it is to “secure the opportunities of Australian net zero future.”

·       Sept. 2025 - Australia’s NDCs are updated and set a 62-70% lowering of emission compared to 2005 levels by 2035.

·       Jan. 2026 - Australia’s largest coal fired power plant, Eraring in NSW, is announced to stay open until 2029 despite being meant to close in 2027. It will emit roughly 33 million to 35 million tonnes of CO2 between now and its closure.

Positive Consequences of Australia’s Climate Change Action

·       Australia’s total GHG emissions fell by 2.1% in the year to December 2025 compared to 2024.

·       Australia is officially projected and legislated to reach net zero greenhouse gas emissions by 2050.

Negative Consequences of Australia Climate Action

• Australia’s targets are rated “Insufficient” by the Climate Action Tracker.

•  Australia remains the world’s 3^rd largest fossil fuel exporter, making up roughly 6-7% of total global exports (a consequence of continuing to renew gas plants for instance).

• Aus exported $160bn in fossil fuels in 2023-24

• Aus in 2024 accounts for 1% of global CO2 emissions. But when considering fossil fuel exports, it is 4.5%

Challenges to Aus resolving CC

·       Economic Interests – Australia needs to attract and invest $7-9tn of capital to 2060 from international and domestic sources to achieve net zero. Also, fossil fuels account for about 39% of Australia’s total commodity exports.

·       Energy Needs – Fossil fuels account for 89.9% of Australia’s total primary energy consumption mix. Therefore, it is unrealistic for the state to simply abandon the source.

UN Responses

·       Nov. 2025 - COP30 outcome to mobilize $1.3tn annually by 2035 for climate action, and triple adaptation finance by the same year.

·       Facilitated COP30 in Belem, Brazil. It was attended by 56,118 delegates across 194 UNFCCC parties/states. 57 world leaders / heads of state were in attendance.

·       July 2025 - ICJ ruled states have a legal and human rights obligation to address climate change. It says states must exercise “due diligence” to limit warming to 1.5C.

·       Nov. 2024 - COP29 saw developed nations pledge to mobilize $300bn a year to support mitigation and adaptation in developing nations.

Positive Impacts of UN

·       According to the Climate Council, since the Paris Agreement’s in 2015 implementation, we can see:

a)      Low emissions sources now make 40% of global electricity

b)      Global clean energy investment climbed to $2.2tn. Before Paris, it was about $300bn.

d)      Roughly 83% of the global economy has a net-zero emissions target, whereas 0 countries had formal targets in 2015.

e)      While pollution still rises, the annual growth rate lowered from 2% to 0.6%.

Inability of UN Action

·       The world leaders of the world’s three largest polluting countries, the US, China, and India, did not attend COP30. Nor did Putin or Albanese.

·       According to the Climate Action Tracker, the world is still on track for 2.6-2.7-degree global warming above preindustrial levels by 2100.

·       The Climate Action Tracker says that only 3 countries submitted NDCs that are 1.5C compatible.

Shell Responses

·       April 2024 - Shell threatens to leave the London Stock Exchange for the New York Stock Exchange, as the New York one is move positive on fossil fuel investment.

·       Mar. 2024 - Shell weakens its goal to cut “net carbon intensity” of all carbon products from 20% by 2030 to only 15-20%. Shell claims this is due to business priorities and oil and gas “will be needed.”

·       2022 - Over the year, Shell invested $8.2bn in low carbon energy and non-energy products, a third of total cash expenditure for the year.

·       2024 - Shell emits a total of 1.2 billion tons of C02 emissions and thus have emitted more than all but 6 states in the whole world.

Positive Consequences of Shell

·       Shell achieved a 78% reduction in total methane emissions by the end of 2025 compared to 2016 levels.

·       In 2026, Shell announced its total carbon emissions dropped from 1,154 million tons to 1,137 million tons. This is from direct operations and product sales.

• Shell, on April 16, 2020, announced its net-zero emissions target by 2050 or sooner.

Negative Consequences of Shell

·       Shell’s carbon footprint remains 1.1bn metric tons of CO2 equivalent. This is 3x the total emissions of the UK.

·       An independent analysis by Reclaim Finance finds that Shell is projected to overshoot 1.5C as early as 2034 (2022 publication date)

Challenge for Shell resolution

·       The vast majority of Shell’s profits come from fossil fuels. In the 2^nd quarter of 2026 alone, net profits were $9.84bn. Abandoning fossil fuels is simply unrealistic for Shell.

Greenpeace Responses

·       Dec. 2025 - Greenpeace campaigning led to the UK announcing corporations can no longer get permission to search for new oil and gas reserves.

·       Nov. 2025 - 141 activists blocked coal ships from exiting Newcastle. The head of climate and energy at Greenpeace Australia Joe Rafalowicz said, “we don’t need new fossil fuels, and we will continue to hold you to account.”

·       Nov. 2025 - Greenpeace legally challenges Shell over Jackdaw gas fields. They won the case, and the project would’ve created 36 million tons of C02 if it went ahead.

·       Aug. 2025 - Greenpeace campaign was successful in pressuring Coles to stop all deforestation by the end of 2025.

COP Ineffectiveness

·       2025 – The European Parliament, after COP30, published an article saying COP30 represents “slow progress”, a “very minimal basis for global climate action,” and is “insufficient.” This is mainly due to no fossil fuel phase-out roadmap being announced.

Strengths of PA

·       As of 2026, 194 parties (193 states and the EU) are currently in the Paris Agreement.

·       Around 38 Paris Agreement states have officially adopted net-zero pledges by a certain year (most by 2050) into law as of 2026.

·       States continue to submit NDCs, despite most being insufficient.

Weaknesses of PA

·       As of mid-2026, 44 parties of the Paris Agreement are overdue and late to submitting their 2035 NDCs.

·       2024 and 2025 were respectively the hottest and 2^nd hottest years on record. Also, in 2024, global average temperatures officially breached the 1.5C threshold.

·       The CAT finds that current policies are projected to result in 2.6C warming/increase by 2100.

Consequences for Stability

• Strengthening global governance frameworks - 194 states still follow the Paris Agreement, etc.

Consequences for Change

• Migration: The World Bank’s 2021 Groundswell Report projects that, by mid-century, up to 216 million people could become internal climate migrants across six regions if warming continues unabated. In 2025, Tuvalu’s first 11,000+ climate migrants arrived in Australia.

• Conflict:  In 2025, a conflict broke out in the Sahel region between nomadic herders and sedentary farmers because of dwindling fertile land and severe water scarcity.

• Hunger: In October 2022, World Bank research found that 43 million people could be pushed below the poverty line by 2030 due to rising temperatures, thus causing hunger. Furthermore, by 2050, the risk of hunger is projected to increase by 10-20%, and child malnutrition is anticipated to be 20% higher compared to a no-climate-change scenario