Exam 1

The 3 objectives secretary Hegseth gave for attacking Iran

• Destructions of Irans Ballistic missile arsenal

• Destruction of Irans navy

• Eliminating Irans ability to ever develop a nuclear weapon

Mojtaba Khamenei

• Son of former supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei

• replaced him after his death

• considered more hawkish and repressive

COW

• Correlates of war

• At least 1,000 battle related deaths among all participating states, or an annual avg of 1,000

Deterrence and deterrence model

• Deterrence: using military buildup and coercive strategies to prevent another state from attacking

• Deterrence model: wars occur when deterrence fails; one side lacks military capabilities or threats lack credibility

Kenneth Waltz

• developed the levels of analysis framework in his book man, the state, and War

Waltzian neorealists

• believe Bipolar systems are more stable than a multipolar one

• each state has to balance the other out because they have no choice

• In multipolar systems, states have an incentive to “free ride” and let other states pay the costs of balancing an aggressor, undermining deterrence

• In bipolar systems, there is less chance of war through miscalculations, as there is only one aggressor to gather info on

Defensive realism

• Does not believe anarchy in itself forces states into war, and states balance against the greatest threat to their interests and the strongest state in the system.

• Factors such as geographical proximity and possession of defensive vs offensive weapons determine that threat (fine-grained structure of power)

• State and individual level factors cause predatory states

• In a world with only defensive states, no predatory states, and no misperceptions, there would be no wars,

Offensive realism

• Predatory states are caused by the inherent uncertainty of the international system and anarchy-induced tendencies towards worst-case analysis

• Best way to achieve security is through global and regional hegemony

• Can be achieved because balancing coalitions are slow to form

• Not possible to distinguish between defensive/offensive weapons.

War

sustained, coordinated violence between political orgs

Realists paths to war

• Predatory/Deliberate: two states have a direct conflict of interest and at least one decides war is the best way to achieve its interests.

• Inadvertent war: security seeking state content with the status quo fears potential predatory state.

• Builds up its power for defensive purposes in response to an adversary’s increased strength or alliances.

• Adversary views the build-up as threatening, triggering a conflict spiral.

Security/Spiral model

Actions states take to increase their security often trigger responses from adversaries, which results in a dec in security, and the possibility of war.

System Polarity

categorizes the distribution of power among states in the international system by counting the number of poles( states of groups of states) where power is concentrated

Multipolar, Bipolar, Unipolar

• Multipolar: 3 or more great powers, ex europe in 1914( Britain, France, Germany, Russia, Austria-Hungary, and Italy)

• Bipolar: two fairly equal powers, ex cold war

• Unipolar: one hegemon, suspends the conditions of anarchy, ex US after the Cold War

power transition theory

• A single powerful state manages the IS

• most often a state dissatisfied with the status quo begins to approach the strength of the begins to approach the strength of the leading state

• the Challenger initiates a war to accelerate the power transition

• Sometimes the declining power initiates a preventative war

Conditions for expansion in developed states

• Overproduction of goods and services

• Underconsumption by workers and lower classes because of low wages

• Over savings by upper classes and bourgeoisie

Democratic peace

• Democracies rarely fight wars against other democracies

• democratic leaders are particularly concerned with failure, as a domestic audience can punish them.

• Two democracies in a dispute are inclined to negotiate rather than fight

Narizny Model

• Class based model

• Leftist govs are more likely to build up armaments in response to an external threat because they can tax the wealthy, who are not in their coalition.

• See inc in taxation that can later be used to expand social programs and gain greater control of the economy

• Conservative govs are less likely to build up armaments because taxing the poor could lead to negative electoral consequences, and the wealthy, who are in their coalition, won’t accept higher taxes.

4 authoritarian regime types

• Non-personalist machines: face high accountability from civilian domestic audience with a cautious attitude towards military force

• Non-personalist juntas: face high accountability from a military domestic audience with more hawkish preferences towards force.

• Personalist bosses/ strongmen: low accountability from domestic audiences and the individual is usually drawn towards force, even more so than juntas

Authoritarian regime most like democracies regarding war

non-personalist machines are the closest because they are accountable to a civilian audience that is cautious towards war and face the possibility of removal if unsuccessful

Soft power

• Coined by Joseph Nye

• The ability to affect others through attraction rather than coercion

• Soft power resources: culture, political values domestically, foreign policy

Public diplomacy

• an instrument govs use to mobilize soft power resources to communicate and attract the publics of other countries, rather than merely their govs

• draws attention to resources through broadcasting, cultural exports, and exchanges

• doesn’t work when a country’s values are offensive/ not attractive

3 dimensions of public diplomacy

Daily communication: communicate current policies and positions to foreign audiences through news and media

Strategic communication: develop specific themes and messages to communicate to foreign audiences

lasting relationships: building lasting relationships with foreign populations through exchanges

Hard and smart power

• hard power: coercing others to act in ways they wouldn’t otherwise though military intervention and economic sanctions

• smart power: combining elements of hard and soft power to mutually reinforce an actors goals

Hierarchical belief systems in foreign policy

• Beliefs are organized into fundamental assumptions and policy objectives, strategic policy beliefs, and tactical beliefs

• Most likely to change tactical beliefs, and repeated failure allows people to change strategic beliefs

• Fundamental assumptions are so psychologically difficult to change that those policies only change with massive personnel shifts

Early experiences that affect political beliefs

• Experiences that establish a person as an autonomous and valued individual

• The political issues that advanced their early career and established them as someone of great talent

• the values, problems, and ways of thinking that dominate a successful career

• Many of the values and beliefs that dominate the climate of opinion when they first begin to think about politics

Rationality

The selection of means that will maximize previously determined goals

3 elements of the rational decision making process

• identifying goal

• specifying the set of available strategies and policies one might adopt to advance one’s goals

• estimating the consequences for each alternative strat

How to think rationally since the world in uncertain

• think probabilistically rather than deterministically

• Weigh the utility of each outcome by its probability of occurrence to find the utility of each strat; choose the one with the highest utility.

Difference between collective security and alliance and entente

• Alliance: agreement to help members in the event of war against a specific threat, can be defensive (defend if attacked by a third party) or offensive (agree to initiate war against a third party) ex triple alliance

• Collective security: broad institutions to promote peace and security from any threat. Deals with inter- and intra-state conflict. ex the UN

• Entente: agreement between states to cooperate but generally less binding than alliances, ex triple entente

NATO

• founded after WW2 to protect europe against communist threats

Challenges NATO faced leading up to 2001

• Further enlargement, namely former soviet states

• the commitment of the majority of NATO members to a partly autonomous European security and defense Policy

• The prospect of reduction of US troops in europe, calling into question US commitment and leadership role

Chainganging

When a small number of states drag all allies into war

Main bodies of the UN

• General assembly

• security council

• Economic and social council

• International court of justice

• Secretariat

• Trusteeship Council

UN Security council members

• 15 members

• 5 are permanent: US, China, Russia, France, and the UK

Locations of UN main offices

• New York, USA

• Geneva, Switzerland

• Vienna, Austria

• Nairobi, Kenya

How many international orgs and agencies did Trump withdraw from and why

• 66

• claimed they undermine US independence, waste taxpayer money, are ineffective, and have hostile agendas

• negative effect on soft power because US seems not to support orgs that help promote equality and protection for the vulnerable

• now will be difficult for the US to make progress on issues that span borders, ex health and climate

• halted funding prevents orgs from helping many people

• sends message that the US wants to work with the international community in a way where it sets the agenda

Haitis double debt

• The reparations Haiti agreed to pay to France, and the loan they had to take to start repaying it

1914 Haiti double debt

• America invaded Haiti, pushed by the City Bank of new york, to remove gold from Haiti’s national bank

• The following summer america took control of Haiti’s gov and occupied the country for 19 years

First to use the term crimes against humanity in the context of Leopolds Congo

• George Washington Williams, an African-American lawyer and historian

• visited the Congo and discovered the crimes

Edmund Dene Morel

• Discovered the trade anomaly between Belgium and the Congo

• realized the raw materials were being extracted by force

Mobutu Sese Seko

Authoritarian president who changes the name DRC to the republic of Zaire

Patrice Lamumba

• The first democratically elected leader of the DRC

• assasinated in a military coup

Raw materials extracted from the DRC in Chronological order

• Ivory

• Rubber

• Copper

• Uranium

• Coltan

Ibn Battuta

• Arabized Amazigh explorer who traveled almost 5 times farther than Marco Polo

• wrote the travelogue the Rihla

First University

• University of al-Qarawiyyin

• In fez, morocco

• founded by Fatima al-Fihriya

SSC 1.0, 2.0, and 3.0

• 1.0: 1950s to late 1990s. Couched in third worldist claims, relatively less powerful as a geopolitical tool, and largely ignored by mainstream theorists of international development

• 2.0: Early 2000s to 2015. SSC boomed in resources, visibility, and ideational legitimacy. Inc visibility led to inc scrutiny from media, political actors, and civilians.

• 3.0: 2015-now. The affective framing of shared poverty and moral purpose is being overtaken by a more pragmatic framing on concrete achievements, and less symbolism. Partners compromise their previous claims to non-interference as outcomes have become more important in themselves

benefits and drawbacks to Belt and road initiative in Africa

• Benefits: Expands the market for African exports and offers an alternative to US hegemony in Africa.

• Drawbacks: Chinese presence has intensified the scramble for African resources and reinforces the old pattern of trade where Africa mainly provides raw materials.

Zambia/Uganda BRI experiences

• Zambia: has the highest external debt of all recipient countries. Borrowing from China to implement projects has been happening at an unsustainable rate and risks a debt crisis.

• Uganda: Has a lower external debt. Borrowed from China for hydropower and transport projects. At a low risk of debt distress.

Similarities/ Differences beyween western aid and SSC

• Similarities: Both provide resources for development and provide donors with political influence, diplomatic relationships, and economic opportunities

• Differences: Donors from Western countries are wealthier and have more power in the international system. Donors from Global South states are emerging economies and claim to represent the interests of the marginalized Global South.

• Western aid has political and economic conditions, while southern aid generally emphasizes non-interference and has fewer political conditions.

Debt-trapping

Chinese loans to African countries with unsustainable debt profiles may negatively impact poverty reduction and sustainable development. However, others argue Chinese financial assistance is crucial for Africa’s sustainable development.

Angola-model loan

• China gives loans to African countries in return for natural resources. Criticized for reinforcing the colonial division of labor where Africa is a raw material provider

• China argues similar loans were used in the past to build its own infrastructure and doesn’t necessarily perpetuate neo-imperialism.

Brazil Triangular cooperation projects

• Brazil has cooperated with traditional donors for development projects such as Japan, Spain, and Germany

DAC and SSC

• Development assistance fund (DAC): Org founded by Western countries. Defined what could and couldn’t count as developmental assistance, and developed standards members should follow

• SSC: non-traditional donors from the Global South. Donors at least partially reject DAC principles. Based in horizontal relationships and non interference in domestic affairs

Yevgeni Primakov, Russia

• Foreign minister who launched a doctrine of multipolarity which contributed to the rise of BRICS( focused on economic cooperation between the BRICS countries)