lec 23 modelling climate change

predictive models

tools to determine a system's future evolution and properly respond to it

empirical approach

relies on past data to predict the future through derived relationships

numerical approach

prediction of system's future evolution with complex physics and math

earth system models

divide Earth’s atmosphere and surface into a 3d cell grid, characterized by properties

coarseness of spatial resolution can be resolved by

running regional climate models

paramaterizations help

simplify the representation of complex interactions e.g. clouds

known uncertainty

we have knowledge that we lack data

unknown uncertainty

we don’t know that we are missing data

greater degree of uncertainty means

a less accurate model

hindcasting

forecasting the past to calibrate a model, if it can accurately predict current conditions based on the past

shared socio-economic pathways

a set of storylines for how society could evolve based on the expected dominant challenges