Campaigns and elections exam 1

incumbency

whether the candidate or party already holds office.

• usually have advantage

Presidential approval

A presidents popularity often affects the presidents party in congressional elections, especially midterms

state of the nation

economic conditions, war and peace, major events influence how voters judge the incumbent

partisanship

party identity is a powerful predictor of vote choice, as partisan identities calcify, fewer voters switch parties

electoral rules and geography

the electoral college, winner take all rules, district boundaries, ballot access, and state election laws shape strategies and outcomes

campaigns

campaigns can affect information, turnout, and close contests, but their effects are constrained by partisansihp, the political environment, and the opponents campaign.

competititiveness

most house districts are not toss-ups. campaigns and resources therefore concentrate on the small number of genuinely competitive races

retrospective voting

voters judge incumbents based on past performance such as the economy or handling of war and crises

• voters must connect outcomes to the people in office; partisan id can shape that judgement

policy mandate

an election is interpreted as public support for a candidates stated policy agenda

• assumes voters are informed, candidates have clear and distinct positions, and elected officials acton those positions.

egalitarianism

equality before the law and equal opportunity; the historical franchise often excluded many people

populism

belief in the wisdom and virtue of ordinary people and mistrust of political/economic elites

freedom and self-reliance

individuals should be able to participate in economic and political life without excessive government regulation and responsible for their own well-being

popular sovereignty

government authority ultimately rests on the people, but institutions determine how that authority is expressed

Federalist No.10 (james madison)

factions are inevitable because people have different interests and opinions. the goal is not to eliminate factions, but to control their effects.

• a large representative republic makes it harder for a single faction to dominate

Federalist No. 45

powers delegated to the federal government are few and defined, while state powers are numerous and indefinite

Article 1, Section 4- The Elections Clause

gives states authority over the times, places, and manner of congressional elections, while allowing congress to make or alter those rules.

15th Amendment

Voting rights may not be denied on account of race; it did not by itself end racial disenfranchisement

17th Amendment

direct election of U.S senators

19th Amendment

prohibited voting discrimination on the basis of sex; women’s turnout later rose and eventually exceeded mens

23rd Amendment

gave D.C electoral votes in presidential elections

24th amendment

prohibited poll taxes in federal elections

26th amendment

lowered the voting age to 18

27th amendment

Congressional pay changes cannot take effect until after an intervening house election

voting rights act of 1965

federal protections against racial discrimination in voting, later amended

Motor voter legislation

enabled voter registration through dmv transactions

help America vote act

election administration reform following problems in the 2000 election.

Historical voting limit examples

• property based restrictions

• 3/5ths compromise

• post reconstruction disenfranchisement of black voters

• sexism

things state rules differ on

• registration

• early voting,

• mail and absentee ballots

• ballot deadlines

• provisional ballots

• recounts

• equipment

• ballot curing

why rules matter

 Election rules affect who can participate, which candidates emerge, campaign strategy, turnout, and election outcomes.

Mail in and absentee process

1.     Delivery: a voter requests a ballot or one is automatically sent.

2.     Return: ballot is sent through the mail, deposited in a drop box, or delivered to an election office.

3.     Intake: officials record the ballot and check identifying information or barcodes.

4.     Verification: signatures, identification, and other requirements vary by state.

5.     Cure: in some jurisdictions, voters receive notice and a deadline to correct certain discrepancies.

6.     Count: valid ballots are counted under state procedures.

turnout is affected by

registration requirements, voting convienience, mobilization, competitiveness, election type, and voters interest in the contest.

• midterm

Midterm electorates are smaller than presidential electorates

turnout is about 20% lower

plurality rules

means the candidate with the most votes wins, even without a majority

• different from majority rule, majority requires more than half

Duverger’s Law

Single member districts and plurality/winner take all elections tend to produce two major parties

 Structural barriers in 2 party system

single-member districts, winner-take-all rules, ballot-access laws, fundraising difficulties, and the Electoral College.

Psychological barriers in 2 party system

voters may fear a vote for a third party is “wasted,” and strong party attachments discourage switching.

additional barriers in 2 party system

third parties often lack a durable pipeline of candidates, donors, activists, and organization.

third party effects

can influence debate, draw attention to neglected issues, and affect which major party candidate wins by taking votes from one side

• winner take all electoral college rules generally disadvantage third party candidates because they can win substantial popular support without winning electoral votes

House of Representatives

• 435 voting members

• 2 year terms

• seats apportioned among states by populations, districts within a state should be equal in pop size

• congressional districts cannot cross state lines

• more populous states recieve more seats

Senate

• 100 members

• 6 year terms, roughly 1/3 elected every 2 years

• each state receives 2 senators

• senators represent entire state

• smaller states have greater representation per resident

Redistricting

redrawing district boundaries, usually after census.

• in most states, legislatures and governors play a central role

• some states use commissions

Compactness-redistricting

district boundaries should avoid unnecessary sprawling shapes.

Contiguity- redistricting

all parts of a district should be connected

   Respect political communities- redistricting

 preserve municipalities, communities of interest, and other meaningful boundaries where possible.

Cracking-redistricting

split a group of opposing voters among multiple districts so they cannot form a majority in any one district.

Packing-redisticting

concentrate opposing voters in a small number of districts so their votes are “wasted” in overwhelming wins

Hijacking-redistricting

pair incumbents or otherwise restructure districts to force opponents into difficult contests

Partisan Gerrymandering

seeks to maximize a party’s seats. Racial gerrymandering and racial vote dilution raise distinct legal questions, even when race and party are correlated.

Efficiency gap

compares parties’ wasted votes—votes for losing candidates and votes beyond what winners needed—to estimate partisan advantage.

Unintentional Geographical advantage

voters of one party may cluster in cities, leading to wasted votes and uneven seat outcomes even without deliberate line manipulation

Minnesota recent redistricting

• MN congressional and state legislative lines are drawn by the legislature and subject to the governor’s veto. When political branches cannot agree, courts may appoint a special panel

• redistricting mid decade (2025-26) including partisan pressure, litigation, state con rules, and ballot measures

Geographic representation

the representative is responsive to a district’s shared local interests

partisan representation

a party’s share of seats roughly matches its share of votes

competitive representation

close districts may encourage representatives to work harder to retain support

majority representation

a larger majority of voters can elect the representative they prefer

representation goal conflicts

map optimized for partisan proportionality may not produce compact communities; highly competitive map may not reflect the states partisan vote share

Pre democratic campaign era

Elite networks; candidates often avoided open campaigning because it could appear self-serving; restricted electorate.

mass mobilization campaign era

Party rallies, newspapers, events, patronage, and personal appeals mobilized voters.

progressive campaign era

Primaries, ballot and registration reforms, and mass media weakened some traditional party machines.

Candidate campaign

Television, candidate image, polling, consultants, professional staff, and expensive advertising.

contemporary

Social media, email, digital ads, databases, analytics, and targeted messaging.

permanent campaign

 political leaders continuously campaign, fundraise, communicate, and prepare for the next contest rather than campaigning only in the formal election period.

  Campaign strategy

includes deciding where to campaign, which voters to target, which issues to emphasize, how to present the candidate, and how to allocate limited resources.

Campaigns can influence information and turnout, but the effects may be limited when voters are strongly partisan or when both candidates’ efforts cancel one another out.

    The media can inform voters but often emphasizes the “horse race”—who is ahead or behind—and conflict over policy substance.

party in the electorate

voters who identify with or support a party

party organization

formal organizations that coordinate party activity

party-in-government

elected officials affiliated with the party

what parties do

    Recruit candidates and act as gatekeepers.

·       Raise and allocate money, especially to competitive races.

·       Provide campaign services, research, strategy, and voter mobilization.

·       Offer voters cues about candidates and simplify complicated political choices.

·       Coordinate policymaking and organize governing coalitions.

·       Provide opposition and accountability when another party controls government.

·       Direct contributions to candidates are limited by campaign-finance law; independent expenditures are treated differently and can be much less restricted, though they cannot be coordinated with the candidate under the applicable rules.

·       National campaign committees include the DCCC and NRCC for House races and the DSCC and NRSC for Senate races.

·       American parties are decentralized. Party organizations may be institutionally weak while partisan identities are strong.

·       The paradox: strong partisanship plus weak party control can allow leaders or insurgent candidates to intensify polarization while party elites struggle to coordinate or enforce norms.

closed primary system

participation is limited to voters registered with that party, subject to in state rules

open primary system

voters may choose which party’s primary to participate in under the states rules; this does not necessarily mean voting in both parties primaries

top-two primary system

all candidates compete in the same primary; the top two advance regardless of party, as in california

caucus system

party participants meet and follow a party-run delegate selection process

how the presidential nomination process evolved

• by 1800, congressional party caucuses helped select presidential nominees

• 1831, parties began using national nominating conventions

• In the late nineteenth and early twentieth centuries, direct primaries spread; in the 1920s, some party leaders weakened or repealed primaries.

• The 1968 Democratic convention—where Hubert Humphrey won the nomination despite winning none of the 15 state primaries—helped trigger the McGovern–Fraser reforms.

• The reforms aimed to make nominations more open, timely, and representative and expanded the role of voters in selecting delegates.

invisible primary

occurs before voting, candidates compete for endorsements, money, organization, media attention, and perceived viability.

early contests such as Iowa and New Hampshire can create momentum and expectations despite representing a small share of the electorate and delegates.

·       Front-loading moves contests earlier, making early results more consequential and shortening the nomination season.

·       Caucuses tend to have lower turnout than primaries because they require participation at a particular time and place, often lack a private ballot, and can be intimidating.

The party decides argument

endorsements by party leaders. and organized groups help signal. viability and can shape voters’ perceptions; endorsements may matter more than fundraising alone.

what influences vice-presidential selection

 Compensate for perceived weaknesses in the presidential nominee.

·       Appeal to a state, region, or demographic group.

·       Add governing or policy experience.

·       Reinforce the nominee’s image, message, or coalition.

origins of the electoral college

   The framers sought a process less vulnerable to scheming and corruption and created an indirect presidential selection system.

·       Originally, each elector cast two votes for president; the runner-up became vice president.

·       In 1796, John Adams became president and Thomas Jefferson vice president despite belonging to opposing parties. In 1800, Jefferson and Aaron Burr tied, requiring 26 House ballots.

·       The 12th Amendment separated electoral votes for president and vice president.

how the electoral college works

   The framers sought a process less vulnerable to scheming and corruption and created an indirect presidential selection system.

·       Originally, each elector cast two votes for president; the runner-up became vice president.

·       In 1796, John Adams became president and Thomas Jefferson vice president despite belonging to opposing parties. In 1800, Jefferson and Aaron Burr tied, requiring 26 House ballots.

·       The 12th Amendment separated electoral votes for president and vice president.

consequences and reform options of the electoral

 Candidates prioritize battleground states because winner-take-all rules make victories in competitive states more valuable than adding votes in safe states.

·       A candidate can win the Electoral College while losing the national popular vote. Examples in the notes: 1824, 1876, 1888, 2000, and 2016.

·       The system overrepresents small states relative to population and generally disadvantages third-party candidates.

·       Reform options include the National Popular Vote Interstate Compact, a uniform winner-take-all system, district allocation (used by Maine and Nebraska), proportional allocation, or direct national popular vote.

·       District allocation could introduce or magnify partisan gerrymandering concerns because electoral votes would depend on congressional district lines.

·       The National Popular Vote Compact would take effect when participating states control enough electoral votes to reach the required majority; class notes list 18 states plus D.C. and 222 electoral votes at the time of the notes.

2016 election and polling error

   Trump won the Electoral College while Clinton won the national popular vote. The notes list Trump at 306 electoral votes and Clinton at 232 in the final allocation.

·       Potential polling problems: sampling error; difficulty measuring undecided voters; late decisions by independent/third-party voters; lower response rates among less-engaged voters; turnout higher than expected; and failure to adjust for educational differences in who responded.

·       Not all forecasts were wrong. Models based on fundamentals sometimes anticipated a Trump victory.

·       The fundamentals listed include the economy/GDP growth, presidential approval, incumbency/party seeking a third consecutive term, and the closeness of the contest.

Campaigns and voters in 2016

·       Trump received less money, fewer newspaper endorsements, fewer ads, and fewer field offices than Clinton in the notes, but still won the Electoral College.

·       Trump won 58% of the white vote; white voters were about 70% of the electorate. Clinton won women by 12 points but lost men by 12; white women voted for Trump by a narrow majority.

·       The rural–urban divide widened; education became especially important; Trump performed strongly among white evangelicals.

·       Partisanship remained powerful. Many Sanders voters ultimately supported Clinton, and opposition to Clinton among voters with sexist attitudes mattered.

2020 election

·       The pandemic changed the context, expanded mail and absentee voting, and coincided with record turnout.

·       The election functioned as a referendum on Trump. Approval of his handling of COVID-19 was sharply divided by party.

·       The notes describe the 2020 outcome as a change in president without a fundamental realignment of the electorate.

2024 election and calcification

     The notes emphasize presidential approval, inflation/economic perceptions, the Electoral College, and a narrowly divided electorate as central fundamentals.

·       The election was also a referendum on Biden’s presidency even though Biden was not the Democratic nominee in the general election.

·       Low approval ratings for both major candidates reflected intense partisan polarization.

Calcified Politics

voters’ partisan loyalties are more firmly fixed, making them less likely to switch parties

ideological polarization

the parties positions are farther apart and voters within each party are more ideologically aligned

affective polarization

people increasingly dislike or distrust the opposing party’s supporters.

negative partisanship

voters support their own party partly because they strongly oppose the other party.

partisan sorting

party identity increasingly aligns with ideology and demographic, religious, racial, educational, or cultural attributes.

Calcification does not mean the same party always wins.

 Because the electorate is closely divided, small changes in turnout, new voters, deaths, migration, or national conditions can change outcomes.

·       The notes emphasize identity issues—including race, religion, ethnicity, gender, and immigration—as increasingly aligned with party divisions.

·       Economic concerns and identity concerns can interact; neither should automatically be treated as the only explanation for vote choice.

·       Partisan calcification weakens the link between economic performance and presidential approval when voters refuse to credit a president from the opposing party.

Mayhew’s concept of members of congress

“single minded reelection seekers”

advertising-incumbents

incumbents communicate with constituents and maintain name recognition, including through the franking privilege for official mail.

position taking- incumbents

Incumbents publicly take positions on issues and build a recognizable record.

Credit claiming- incumbents

Incumbents claim responsibility for benefits, funding, and help delivered to the district.

Casework- incumbents

Staff help constituents navigate federal agencies; this can build trust and goodwill.

District presence

Travel budgets, local contact, and staff offices help members maintain relationships with constituents.

Fundraising and war chest

Incumbents usually raise more money; a large balance can discourage strong challengers from running.

Weak opposition

Strategic, experienced challengers are less likely to run in districts they expect to lose.

quality challenger

someone with prior elected experience and the ability to raise money and run a credible campaign

sophomore surge

the average increase in vote share when a candidate runs for reelection as an incumbent for the first time

retirement slump

the average drop in a party’s vote share when an incumbent leaves and the seat becomes open