Public Opinion in Politics Midterm

What is Public Opinion?

Public opinion refers to the preferences, attitudes, and beliefs of the adult population on matters relevant to the government.

How is public opinion measured?

Through surveys and polls that ask people questions about political issues, candidates, and government policies.

What are three challenges of measuring public opinion?

• People may be uncertain or lack enough political information to form an opinion.

• People may not have fixed opinions and may give different answers depending on what comes to mind.

• Sampling problems, bias, and nonresponse can make polls inaccurate.

Why is uncertainty a challenge when measuring public opinion?

Some people do not know enough about politics or an issue to form an informed opinion but may still answer survey questions.

What is ambivalence?

Having conflicting feelings or beliefs about a political issue.

What are non-attitudes?

Responses people give to survey questions even when they do not have a meaningful or well-formed opinion.

What is the difference between uncertainty and non-attitudes?

Uncertainty means someone does not know enough about an issue. Non-attitudes refer to giving an answer despite not having a meaningful opinion.

What is a population?

The entire group of people a researcher wants to study.

What is a sample?

A smaller group selected from a population to participate in a survey.

What is a sampling frame?

The list or source of people researchers draw their sample from. These are the people who could potentially be contacted.

What is probability sampling?

A sampling method where every member of the target population has a known, nonzero chance of being selected.

What is quota sampling?

A nonprobability sampling method where researchers recruit a predetermined number of people from specific demographic groups.

What is sampling error?

The difference between a sample's results and the actual opinions of the entire population because only a portion of the population was surveyed.

What is the margin of error?

The estimated range of uncertainty around a poll's results.

If a poll shows 50% support with a ±3% margin of error, what does that mean?

The estimated support is approximately between 47% and 53%.

What is nonresponse bias?

When people who do not participate in a survey differ systematically from those who do, potentially making the results unrepresentative.

What is the soup analogy for sampling?

You do not need to eat the entire pot of soup to know how it tastes. A small spoonful can represent the whole pot, just like a properly selected sample can represent a larger population.

What are considerations according to Zaller and Feldman?

The information, beliefs, values, and feelings people draw on when forming political opinions.

What is Feldman's consideration model?

People do not necessarily have fixed political opinions. Instead, they draw on different considerations when asked a question, which can cause their answers to change.

Why might someone have different opinions about Donald Trump versus an unfamiliar politician?

They may have more information and established considerations about Trump. With an unfamiliar politician, they may have to think more deeply about what they know or believe.

What is ideological innocence according to Kinder and Kalmoe?

The idea that many Americans do not have consistent or fully developed ideological beliefs. Their opinions are often shaped by political parties, specific issues, experiences, and political leaders.

What is ideology?

A set of political beliefs and principles about how government and society should operate.

What is partisanship?

A person's psychological identification with a political party, such as the Democratic or Republican Party.

What is opinion leadership?

When certain people influence the political opinions and decisions of others through conversations, information, and social relationships.

How do political elites influence public opinion?

Politicians and party leaders shape political messages, influence what political parties stand for, and affect how people understand political issues.

What is misinformation?

False or inaccurate information that people may believe to be true.

What is motivated reasoning?

When people process information in ways that support their existing beliefs, identities, or preferred political outcomes. Motivated reasoning

How do family and friends influence political opinions?

People's political beliefs and voting behavior are influenced by conversations, shared experiences, and social expectations within their networks.

What is the social approach to public opinion?

The idea that people's political opinions and voting behavior are strongly influenced by their social relationships, group memberships, and environments.

What is cross-pressure?

When people experience competing political influences from different parts of their social networks.

What is an example of cross-pressure?

Someone's family supports Democrats, but their religious community supports Republicans. They feel pulled in different political directions.

Why are social networks important in understanding voting behavior?

People often share similar political views with their family and friends, and these relationships can influence their voting decision

What is social sorting according to Mason?

When people's social identities, such as race, religion, geography, and cultural values, increasingly align with their political party identification.

What is a mega-identity according to Mason?

When multiple social identities become connected to one political party, making party membership part of how people understand themselves and others.

What happens when partisanship becomes a mega-identity?

Political disagreements become personal rather than simply disagreements about policies. This increases hostility and makes compromise more difficult.

What is negative partisanship?

When people are motivated by their dislike or opposition toward the other political party rather than simply their support for their own party.

What is affective polarization?

The growing emotional divide between people who identify with opposing political parties, resulting in greater hostility and distrust. Affective

What is political polarization?

Increasing division between political groups and parties, making it harder for people to find common ground.

How can weak party organizations contribute to candidates like Donald Trump gaining support?

Weak party organizations can make it easier for unconventional candidates to gain influence, especially when strong partisan identities motivate voters to support their party's candidate.

Why is measuring public opinion difficult?

• People may not know enough about an issue.

• People may not have fixed opinions.

• Answers can change depending on what comes to mind.

• Sampling errors, bias, and nonresponse can affect accuracy.

Do people always have consistent political opinions?

• No, people do not always have fixed opinions.

• Zaller and Feldman argue that people draw on different considerations when answering questions.

• These include beliefs, values, feelings, and information.

• Different considerations can produce different answers at different times.

How do political elites and ordinary citizens contribute to misinformation?

• Political elites may spread misleading information to gain support or attack opponents.

• Ordinary citizens may share information without checking its accuracy.

• People are more likely to believe information that supports their existing beliefs.

• Social media allows misinformation to spread quickly.

How does the Columbia School explain voting behavior?

• Voting is influenced by social relationships and group memberships.

• Family and friends shape political preferences.

• People may support candidates who reflect their social group's views.

• Voting is not based solely on individual opinions or policy knowledge.

• Columbia

How does partisanship contribute to polarization?

• Social identities become connected to political parties. This is how it contributes to polarization.

• Party membership becomes part of people's identities.

• Political disagreements become personal.

• This increases hostility and reduces willingness to compromise.

What is the relationship between social sorting and mega-identity?

• Social sorting occurs when social identities increasingly align with political parties.

• These identities combine to form a mega-identity.

• Party membership becomes a bigger part of how people identify themselves.

• This increases political divisions and emotional hostility.

Symbolic ideology(Mason)

how people label themselves politically, such as identifying as liberal, moderate, or conservative

operational ideology (Mason)

 refers to their actual positions on specific political issues

Delegate model

delegate model argues that elected representatives should follow the preferences of their constituents when making political decisions. It is important because it suggests that representatives should act on what voters want rather than relying primarily on their own personal beliefs.