Infectious Disease in an area of Global Change + How to read a Scientific Article Part 2

what was the main idea of the Baker et al “infectious disease in an era of global change

the 21st century has seen a lot of outbreak and the authors ask whether climate change, demographic change, and technology have raised the risk of outbreaks, even as sanitation and health care have improve

What is the stages of a new infection

emergence —> local spread —> global spread

what is emergence and give examples

(spillover from animals)

• people moving into wildlife habitat, farming, and destroying habitat

• ageing population changing susceptibility + end of smallpox vaccine

what are local dynamics and give examples

urbanization - benefits one virus and reduces others

falling birth rates/school attendance - changes who gets infected and at what age

climate - shapes seasonality of disease

vaccines - reduces incidence, but gaps allow big outbreaks

what are different global spreads and give examples

• airline passengers doubling between 2000 and 2019 which increased the spread of Covid 19

• animal and plant trade moves pathogens

What does the author of Baker et al conclude about the paper

declining infectious disease deaths are a public health success, but reemerging is a new threat

• need better surveillance, health equity, and global collaboration

According to Raff, what key points should we do when we read a scientific article

• Read the introduction first, not the abstract, so you aren’t biased by the authors’ conclusions

• Decide for yourself whether the results answer the question

• Read the abstract last, then see what other experts say