arab uprising midterm

Zine al-Abidine Ben Ali

Former interior and prime minster who took power in a bloodless coup in 1987. Second president of Tunisia. Between 1987 and 2010 he hired 1 policeman for every 3 citizens. He had a tight grip over all three branches of power and the media. Made his own security using his “sovereignty fund” 6 months after he fled Tunisia, they sentenced him and his wife to 35 years in prison and a $66 million fine for embezzlement. He died in September 2019 in jeddah.

“Ruling bargain” (across the Arab countries)

Arrangement between Arab authoritarian regimes and their people: the state provided economic benefits, subsidies, jobs, and social welfare in exchange for political compliance. The effects of neoliberal policies violated the "ruling bargain", producing declining living standards and inequality increased. The collapse of the "ruling bargain" was a cause of the 2010-2011 uprisings.

Wael Ghonim

A Google executive and Egyptian activist. After police beat Khaled Saeed to death in June 2010 for having a video in which police were taking the loot of a drug bust. He made a Facebook page called "We Are All Khaled Saeed." The page gained hundreds of thousands of followers and was Egypt's biggest dissident page with 130,000 members.

The “Kefaya” movement (Egypt)

Arabic for "Enough,” founded in 2004. 1 of 3 rounds of political protests before the government held a vote to confirm Mubarak's fifth presidential term. It was the first group ever to call for Mubarak's resignation. Had nationalists, communists, and Islamists. Its members connected on Facebook and some were beaten and jailed repeatedly.

Habib Bourguiba

The 1st president of Tunisia after independence from France in 1956. He established the trade union federation (UGTT) and Neo-Destour Party. His authoritarian regime denied citizens religious freedom and free expression. During the 1983 protests over IMF-mandated economic reforms, they tore down his statues, “rejection of the regime.” He was removed from power in a bloodless coup by Ben Ali in 1987.

Waithood

The time that elapses from getting a college degree to getting a job. Youth couldnt, afford housing, or marry due to economy. By 2010, one in four young Arabs was unemployed. Youth unemployment in Egypt measured 62%, in Syria 56.9%, and in Yemen 48.4%.

Muammar Qaddafi

Came to power at 27 after leading a military coup against King Idris in 1969 with a group of “Free Officers.” He modeled himself on Nasser and promoted Arab nationalism. Libya nationalized its oil industry in the 1970s. Oil wealth helped Gaddafi provide welfare, he governed through personal networks instead of building strong political institutions.

The April 6 Movement

An Egyptian youth movement that played a role in organizing and leading the initial protests of January 25, 2011. Its leader, Ahmed Maher, organized protest in Cairo's Tahrir Square, and co-founder Asmaa Mahfouz posted a video calling on them to join the protests. After the revolution, they debated whether to become a political party to challenge the Muslim Brotherhood. They remained as a pressure group due to brotherhoods size. They supported the Tamarod campaign for President Morsi's removal.

Ennahda (political party)

A Tunisian Islamist political party that wasn’t allowed to form a political party before the regime change. They won more than 40% of the vote in Tunisia's first free elections in October 2011, and got 90 seats in the Assembly. They led a coalition government for two years (2011–2013) and compromised on key Islamist demands. The party stepped down from power in October 2013 under pressure from the National Dialogue Quartet.

Freedom and Justice (political party)

The political arm of the Muslim Brotherhood, formed after the fall of Mubarak. In the 2011–2012 parliamentary elections the FJP won 47.18% of the seats, while the Salafist al-Nour Party won 24.29 percent, giving Islamists a majority. Liberal, secular, and leftist parties did poorly. The FJP's candidate, Mohamed Morsi, won Egypt's presidential election in June 2012 with 52%. The FJP had political and economic failures, which led to Morsi's overthrow in the July 2013 military coup by Sisi.

Hosni Mubarak

Ruled Egypt for more than 30 years and be president until he died. He concentrated power in the presidency and coached his son Gamal to succeed him. He would extend the emergency law every 3 years, caused police power to inc, and constitutional rights were suspended, After the January 25, 2011 uprising, Mubarak was deposed by the military on February 11, 2011. He was released from prison in 2017 and died in February 2020.

Khalifa Hifter

A Libyan general who took inspiration from el-Sisi and argued that Libya should be ruled by the military. In early 2014, he announced that a Libyan Supreme Council of the Armed Forces would dissolve the General National Congress (GNC), arrest Islamists, and eradicate their movement. Hifter received support and weapons from Egypt and UAE.

Muslim Brotherhood

Egypt's oldest and most organized Islamist movement. Not allowed to form political parties before regime change. Through its political arm, the Freedom and Justice Party, it dominated post-Mubarak elections. On February 1, 2011, while protesters were still in Tahrir Square, Mohammad Morsi and Saad al-Katatni entered secret negotiations with chief Omar Suleiman for more power in exchange for stopping the revolt. It moved from being an illegal organization to the party ruling Egypt. Morsi was in the Brotherhood, and after Morsi, the Muslim Brotherhood was outlawed by Sisi.

Tamarod

(Arabic for "Rebellion") appeared in April 2013 as a campaign to get 15 million signatures demanding that Morsi step aside on the first anniversary of his inauguration, June 30. Tamarod was a campaign to push Sisi. The April 6 Movement gave its support to Tamarod. Tamarod was a front for military action rather than a genuine movement.

Abdel Fattah El-Sisi

Egypt's president since 2014 until 2030. Morsi handed him the defense ministry and the directorship of military intelligence. His rule is known as "Authoritarianism 2.0": ending protests, ending the Muslim Brotherhood and passing constitutional amendments.The February 2019 constitutional referendum granted a third term for the president, increasing the powers of the presidency over two other branches of government. His sons Mustafa and Mahmoud were appointed to senior intelligence positions.

Responsibility to Protect (R2P)

A principle that the international community may act to protect civilians when a state is unwilling to protect them. Resolution 1973, adopted on March 17, 2011, the UN Security Council authorized member states, to protect civilians under threat of attack.

Identify and discuss at least three structural causes of the 2010-2011 Arab uprisings presented in the lectures. 

1. Neoliberal Economic Policies and the Collapse of the "Ruling Bargain": Neoliberal policies were first introduced into the region in the late 1970s, then deepened over the late 1990s and early 2000s. These policies required Arab states to switch to export-oriented development, cut subsidies and social welfare programs, and privatize government-owned assets. The effects of these policies violated the "ruling bargain", causing declining living standards. Political and economic elites benefited, and inequality increased. In Tunisia, 220 firms affiliated with Ben Ali's family got 21% of net private-sector profits. 

2. Spike in Food Prices: The Arab world is more dependent on aggregate food imports than any other region in the world. Egypt was the world's largest wheat importer. The world price of wheat had doubled. As a result of pressure from the US and the IMF, governments had been constrained from intervening in markets to fix food prices. This had an impact on populations struggling economically. 

3. Demographic Factors: The "Youth Bulge" and "Waithood": Over 60% of the Arab population was under the age of 30. One in four young Arabs was unemployed. Many Arab countries had large numbers of educated youth with college degrees but without skills to be competitive. 

4. Lack of Political Accountability: Power was concentrated in rulers or ruling families with no checks and balances at the institutional level to limit power.

Why did the uprising in Libya lead to a civil war?

Libya entered the uprising with weak political institutions, little experience with democracy, and a weak national identity after Qaddafi’s. It had strong tribal and regional divisions between the east and west. After Qaddafi, no unifying leader or strong national government emerged. The Transitional National Council was divided and lacked a united political program, while armed militias kept control of territory and weapons and had more power than the national army. The military was split between regime supporters and opponents, helping remove Qaddafi but contributing to a stalemate and incomplete regime change.

Prior to the 2011 Arab Spring, Egypt and Tunisia have had strong states with a differentiated military. Contrast this with Libya. What was the key difference regarding the role of the military in Libya, on the one hand, and Egypt and Tunisia, on the other?

1. Tunisia: Both Bourguiba and Ben Ali limited military power and its involvement in politics. Ben Ali created the Presidential Guard to protect Ben Ali's family. Tunisia's military was severely underfunded, underequipped, and underpaid. Ben Ali treated the military as second-class citizens. Ben Ali reduced the military's budget and limited its role to border patrols. The military refused to fire on the protesters and deployed onto the streets to protect protesters from the Guard. The Tunisian military had no political or economic interests in governance; it let civilian-led processes operate after Ben Ali fled.

2. Egypt: The Egyptian military had 900,000 men and was pampered financially, both by the Egyptian government and by the US. It was historically involved in politics. When Mubarak fell, the Supreme Council of the Armed Forces (SCAF) assumed governing authority, suspended the constitution, dissolved parliament, dissolved Mubarak's Democratic Party, and promised a transition to democratic civilian rule.  

3. Libya: Unlike Tunisia and Egypt, Libya lacked a strong, independent military institution. Qaddafi kept political institutions and the military weak and relied on overlapping security agencies and personal networks for protection. After the uprising, the military split between regime supporters and opponents, and the national army remained weak. No powerful national institution could manage the transition or bring the armed groups under central control.

Why was the “old guard” of the Muslim Brotherhood hesitant to join the protests against the Mubarak regime in the early stages of political mobilization in Egypt?

1. First, they preferred to negotiate for power rather than risk open confrontation with the regime. On February 1, 2011, while protesters were still in Tahrir Square, Mohammad Morsi and the future head of the FJP, Saad al-Katatni, entered into secret negotiations with intelligence chief Omar Suleiman for a larger share of power in return for stopping the revolt. These dealings were conducted behind the backs of youth, unions, liberals, and others.

2. Second, there was organizational caution. The Brotherhood outnumbered the April 6 movement 10 to 1, and as the best-organized force, the Brotherhood had more to lose from a violent crackdown than the loosely organized youth movements. The Brotherhood wanted to be a structured political organization.

3. Third, the Islamists adopted the military's transitional program, elections first, constitution and reform later, positioning themselves well for electoral competition while sidelining the secular and youth forces.

How did the geographic location of Egypt and its relative population size affect the transitional outcome there?

1. Egypt is the most populous Arab nation, with a population of 118.4 million in 2025. 40% of Egypt's population lives below the poverty line (with only $2 per day), and 57% of its population lives in rural areas. 

2. Regarding geographic location, Egypt's proximity to Israel and the Persian Gulf was a factor that made external actors invested in Egypt's outcome. Egypt was the first Arab country to make peace with Israel, developed a close security partnership with Israel over years of jointly combating militancy in northern Sinai, and worked together with Israel to blockade Gaza to contain Hamas. The US, Israel, Saudi Arabia, and the UAE all had interests in Egypt's transition 

3. Egypt's population size created economic challenges. When Morsi took office, the Egyptian government employed 6 million people, not including police and soldiers, more than twice of civil servants as in the US. Egypt's budget in 2011 allocated one-quarter to government employee salaries, another quarter to interest payments on loans, and another 30% to subsidies. No money for infrastructure.

What factors explain the relative success of transition to democracy in Tunisia (until 2021 at least) and the failure of the transition in Egypt?

1. Tunisia's Relative Success (until 2021):

   1. The military: The Tunisian military allowed civilian-led processes to operate. When the uprising occurred, the military refused to fire on protesters and deployed to protect them from the Presidential Guard.

   2. Geopolitics: Distant from the Arab conflict with Israel and homogenous.

   3. The Tunisian Human Rights League, and the Tunisian Order of Lawyers, prevented a democratic collapse and won the 2015 Nobel Peace Prize.

   4. Ennahda's: The Ennahda-led coalition stepped down 

   5. Constitution: In January 2014, parliament adopted a new constitution that enshrined democracy, expanded civil and political liberties and the role of women, and created a semi-presidential system.

2. Egypt's Failure:

   1. The military's: The Egyptian military had 900,000 men and was pampered financially by both the Egyptian government and the US. It was involved in politics and dictated the terms of transition, elections first, constitution later, ensuring it never truly relinquished power. 

   2. Brotherhood's: The old guard negotiated behind the youth with Omar Suleiman, and wanted institutional power-sharing over democratization.

   3. Economic collapse under Morsi: The economy fell. The central bank's reserves had fallen by half since 2010. Morsi failed to get a $4.8 billion IMF loan because he didn’t implement subsidies and job cuts.

   4. Tamarod: Tamarod was a campaign to push Sisi to act, collecting fifteen million signatures demanding Morsi step down. The April 6 Movement gave its support to Tamarod.

What explains the successes of Islamist political parties in foundational elections (first round of elections) in Tunisia and Egypt?

1. Organizational infrastructure: Both Ennahda and the Muslim Brotherhood were not allowed to create political parties before regime change but had spent decades building networks. 

2. Electoral results: In Tunisia, Ennahda won more than 40 percent of the vote in October 2011, converting those votes into 90 seats in the 217-member Constituent Assembly. In Egypt, the FJP won 47.18 percent and al-Nour won 24.29 percent, a combined 70 percent of seats.

3. Public support for religious values in politics: There was a great deal of public support in Tunisia and Egypt for making religion more central to governance, even after Islamists had stumbled while in power. 

4. Weakness of the opposition: The youth movements were organized for street mobilization but were not prepared for the challenges after their initial success.

Why did Islamists perform poorly in governance in Tunisia and Egypt?

1. In Tunisia: Ennahda didn’t manage security. Jihadi terrorism came  in 2012 when the U.S. The Embassy in Tunis came under attack. Ennahda was blamed for some of the crimes committed. The coalition showed leniency on corruption, passing the Economic Reconciliation Law (2017) that granted amnesty to civil servants who carried out corrupt practices during the Ben Ali era. 

2. In Egypt: Morsi inherited an economy structured on getting aid from abroad. When Morsi took office, the government employed six million people, more than twice as many civil servants as in the US. The country had no money for infrastructure or development. Morsi's had no political, he failed to secure a $4.8 billion IMF loan, announcing major tax increases for gasoline, electricity, cooking oil, cigarettes, and alcohol in December 2012 that caused street violence killing ten people and eight of his advisers resigning in protest, before he canceled them at 2:13 AM via Facebook. The deep stateworked against Morsi.

In both Egypt and Tunisia, the young protesters who made most of the sacrifices in mobilizing against authoritarian regimes ended up sidelined in what followed. What explains the marginalization of the youth who played such an important role in making regime change possible in the first place?

1. Organizational weakness: The youth movements were organized for street mobilization but were not prepared for the challenges.

2. Indecision about transformation: The April 6 movement faced a dilemma, some wanted to transform it into a political party to challenge the Muslim Brotherhood,  They preferred to remain a pressure group to write a new constitution. 

3. Dealings behind the backs of youth: On February 2011, while protesters were in Tahrir Square, Morsi and Saad al-Katatni entered into secret negotiations with Omar Suleiman for a large share of power in return for stopping the revolt.

4. Islamists adopted the military's idea "election first, constitution and reform later.”

5. The April 6 movement gave its support to Tamarod. 

What were the limits of the 2011 NATO military intervention in Libya?

1. The uprising began in February 2011 after the arrest of Fathi Terbil, a lawyer representing families seeking information about relatives who disappeared in Abu Salim prison. Protests began in Benghazi and spread to nearby towns and west toward Tripoli. Security forces used deadly force against protesters, and the conflict developed into civil war. UN Resolution 1973 to protect civilians. 

2. The main limitation was that NATO helped remove Qaddafi but did not help build a stable state afterward. Libya emerged from dictatorship without strong political institutions, a strong national identity, or a unified security force. The Transitional National Council was divided, and militias kept their weapons and power. NATO and Western governments did not commit to the large-scale effort that would likely have been needed to dismantle the militias. The Transitional National Council wanted NATO to stay until the end of 2011; Libyans preferred a lighter international presence. The consequences included political and economic collapse, fighting between militias and tribes.

What factors explain the military coup against Mohammed Morsi in Egypt in July 2013?

1. Economic collapse: Egypt's economy deteriorated under Morsi. The central bank's reserves had fallen by half since 2010.  Inflation and unemployment were rising fast. By April 2013, blackouts lasted hours daily. Morsi failed to secure a $4.8 billion IMF loan because he was unwilling to implement painful cuts.

2. Morsi's constitutional decree (November 22, 2012): Morsi tried to get back the authority taken from him in July. He granted himself unlimited authority to enact legislation, exempted all his decisions from legal challenge, and invested his decrees with immunity from judicial review. The Supreme Court was preparing to annul both the constitutional draft and Morsi's election as president.

3. Deep state resistance: The Supreme Court, police, army, and state-run media all worked against Morsi.

4. Morsi's attendance at the Syria jihad rally (June 15, 2013): Morsi attended a rally packed with hardline Islamists calling for holy war in Syria. "Tipping point" 

5. Tamarod: Appearing in April 2013, Tamarod was "a campaign to push Sisi to act", collecting fifteen million signatures demanding Morsi step down on the one-year anniversary of his inauguration, June 30. 

6. The coup itself: Sisi went on television, deposed Morsi, declared a state of emergency, suspended the constitution, ordered arrests of Morsi and Brotherhood leaders, and shut down television stations.

In July 2021, Tunisia’s decade of democratic development seems to have ended? Explain how it ended and why.

How it ended

1. In July 2021, President Kais Saied dismissed the prime minister, suspended Parliament, and granted himself powers citing Article 80 of the Constitution. On September 22, 2021, Presidential Decree No. 117 suspended the 2014 constitution and gave Saied sole power to legislate in all areas, including justice, the press, political parties, unions, and security forces, without any time limit. In 2023, he arrested more than 20 political figures, including Ennahda leader Rached Ghannouchi. 

Why it happened:

2. Economic failure: GDP per capita fell from $4,264 in 2011 to $3,319 in 2020. Youth unemployment remained between 38% and 42%.  

3. Less support for democracy: support for democracy dropped from 70% in 2013 to 46% in 2018. Voter turnout fell from 68% in 2014 to 42% in 2019. 47% of young Tunisians said they considered leaving the country, and 13,000 crossed to Italy by boat in 2020.

4. Saied's initial popular support: His power grab initially had the blessing of Tunisians who saw it as their chance to escape its spiraling economic and health crises.

5. Long-term harm: Public debt rose from 67.8% of GDP in 2019 to nearly 85% in 2024. Growth fell to 0.2 percent in 2023. Most view Saied's rule as harmful to Tunisia's long-term interests.