Mizzou Polici unit 3

Normative question about polling

The philosophical debate over whether poll results should guide elected officials' actions or if leaders should lead based on their own independent judgment.

Delegates

Representatives who vote strictly according to the preferences and immediate desires of their constituents.

Trustees

Representatives who use their own independent judgment, conscience, and expertise to make decisions on behalf of constituents.

Politicos

Representatives who adopt a hybrid style, acting as delegates on high-salience issues that voters care deeply about and as trustees on complex or low-salience issues.

Four types of problems with polls

1. Measurement error (question wording/ordering); 2. Sampling error (unrepresentative sample); 3. Selection bias (non-response or cell phone/caller ID issues); 4. Respondent truthfulness (social desirability effect/Bradley effect).

Scientific polling

Polling method that uses random sampling and representative design to accurately gauge public opinion with a known margin of error.

Random sample

A subset of a population in which every individual has an equal and independent chance of being selected.

Representative sample

A sample that accurately reflects the demographic, political, and socioeconomic characteristics of the broader population.

Literary Digest (1936)

A famous polling disaster that incorrectly predicted Alf Landon would beat FDR because its sample relied on telephone directories and auto registration lists (skewed wealthy during the Great Depression).

Population

The entire group of people whose opinions a poll aims to measure.

Sample

The smaller subset of the population actually contacted and surveyed in a poll.

Margin of error

A statistical measure expressing the amount of random sampling error in a poll's results (e.g., +/- 3%).

Bradley effect

A phenomenon where voters tell pollsters they will vote for a minority candidate to avoid appearing prejudiced, but then vote for the white candidate in the privacy of the ballot box.

2016 Polling Inaccuracy

Missed working-class, non-college-educated white voters in key Rust Belt states and late-breaking undecided voters.

2020 Polling Inaccuracy

Overstated Democratic support and missed enthusiastic Trump voters due to pandemic-era differential response rates (supporters of Trump were less likely to answer pollsters).

Variables that affect voter turnout

Education (strongest positive predictor), age (older citizens vote at much higher rates), income, political efficacy, and marital status.

Political efficacy

The feeling that one's individual political participation actually matters and that government is responsive to the people.

Voter turnout in the US vs. other countries

The US consistently ranks lower in voter turnout compared to other advanced industrialized democracies due to registration hurdles, two-party stagnation, and frequent elections.

Voter turnout in presidential vs. midterm elections

Presidential election turnout is significantly higher (~60-66%) than midterm election turnout (~40-50%).

Turnout in 2020 and 2022

2020 saw historic highs (~66%) driven by mail-in/early voting expansions during the pandemic; 2022 saw surprisingly high midterm turnout (~46%) driven by hot-button issues like abortion access.

Proportional Representation (PR)

An electoral system where legislative seats are allocated to parties in exact proportion to the percentage of the total vote each party receives (promotes multi-party systems).

Single-Member Simple Plurality (SMSP) / First-Past-the-Post

An electoral system where the candidate with the most votes in a single-member district wins the seat, regardless of whether they achieve an absolute majority (forces a two-party system, known as Duverger's Law).

Reasons US is a two-party country

SMSP electoral rules, single-member districts, historical institutional inertia, and restrictive ballot access laws for third parties.

Role of third parties in the US

Bring attention to ignored issues, act as safety valves for discontent, and occasionally act as spoilers by siphoning votes from major candidates.

Types of third parties and examples

Ideological parties (Libertarian), splinter/factional parties (Dixiecrats, Bull Moose), and single-issue parties (Green Party).

Ross Perot

Independent/third-party presidential candidate in 1992 who won nearly 19% of the popular vote by focusing on the national debt, proving third parties can disrupt debates.

Progressives and their reforms

Early 20th-century reform movement that implemented direct primaries, the Australian (secret) ballot, voter registration laws, and initiatives/referendums/recalls.

Impact of Progressive reforms on turnout

While they successfully weakened corrupt urban party machines, new registration requirements and ballot rules initially created friction that lowered overall voter turnout in the short term.

Five ingredients of a good election

1. Clean/fair competition; 2. Meaningful choice; 3. Freedom of speech and press; 4. Broad franchise/access; 5. Honest ballot counting.

Daisy Ad (1964)

A shocking political advertisement by Lyndon B. Johnson featuring a little girl plucking daisy petals followed by a nuclear explosion, framing opponent Barry Goldwater as dangerous.

Willie Horton Ad (1988)

An outside-group ad attacking Michael Dukakis over a Massachusetts weekend prison furlough program, featuring a Black convict who committed violent crimes while on leave (noted for racialized fear appeals).

Spiro Agnew Ad (1968)

A famous television ad showing a TV screen laughing uncontrollably at Hubert Humphrey's choice of running mate, weaponizing humor and media mockery.

Electoral College function

A system of 538 total electors where a candidate needs 270 electoral votes to win; 48 states use winner-take-all while Maine and Nebraska allocate by congressional district.

Defenses of the Electoral College

Forces candidates to build broad multi-state coalitions, protects small states from being ignored, and provides a clear, decisive winner in close elections.

Critiques of the Electoral College

Can lead to a candidate winning the popular vote but losing the presidency (e.g., 2000, 2016); treats individual votes unequally based on state population.

12th Amendment

Amended the Constitution in 1804 to require separate Electoral College votes for President and Vice President, avoiding ties like the election of 1800.

Chiafalo v. Washington (2020)

Supreme Court ruling that states have the constitutional authority to penalize or replace "faithless electors" who refuse to vote for their state's popular vote winner.

Campaign finance laws (major laws)

Federal Election Campaign Act (FECA) of 1971/1974 and the Bipartisan Campaign Reform Act (BCRA / McCain-Feingold Act of 2002).

PAC (Political Action Committee)

An organization that pools campaign contributions from members and donates them to campaigns for or against candidates, subject to strict federal contribution limits.

Super PAC (Independent-Expenditure Only Committee)

PACs that can raise unlimited sums of money from corporations, unions, and individuals, provided they spend it independently and do not coordinate directly with candidate campaigns.

Max donation limit to a candidate

Federal campaign contribution limits per election ($3,500 per candidate, per election cycle for the 2025-2026 cycle).

Buckley v. Valeo (1976)

Landmark Supreme Court case ruling that spending money on political campaigns is a form of protected free speech under the First Amendment (struck down limits on candidate self-funding).

McConnell v. FEC (2003)

Supreme Court ruling that upheld the constitutionality of most of the BCRA (McCain-Feingold), including its ban on unregulated "soft money" donations to political parties.

Wisconsin Right to Life Inc. v. FEC (2007)

Supreme Court case that narrowed restrictions on corporate/union "issue ads" close to elections, ruling that bans only apply if an ad has no reasonable interpretation other than advocating for a candidate's defeat or election.

Citizens United v. FEC (2010)

Landmark Supreme Court ruling that corporate and union funding of independent political broadcasts in candidate elections cannot be limited, equating corporate spending with free speech.

Speechnow.org v. FEC (2010)

Federal appeals court ruling (building on Citizens United) establishing that groups making only independent expenditures can accept unlimited donations from individuals, officially creating Super PACs.

News media focus on image over substance

The modern media trend of prioritizing candidate personality, gaffes, physical appearance, and soundbites over deep policy analysis.

Impact of Richard Nixon on politician media behavior

Nixon revolutionized political media strategy by tightly controlling his image, avoiding hostile press corps, and utilizing planned, controlled TV appearances (such as his famous cameo on Laugh-In).

Framing

The way news media covers a story by emphasizing certain angles, words, or contexts, thereby shaping how the public interprets the issue.

Agenda Setting

The power of the media to determine which issues the public thinks and talks about by deciding what stories to cover and how prominently to feature them.

Priming

The process by which the media prepares the public to evaluate a political figure or institution based on specific criteria emphasized in news coverage.

Watchdogs for democracy

The traditional journalistic role of the media in investigating, monitoring, and exposing government corruption, abuses of power, and deceit.

Unofficial fourth branch of government

A term describing the media's powerful role as an informal check and balance on the traditional three branches of government.

Trial balloons

Strategic leaks of a tentative policy or nomination floated by politicians to the media to gauge public and political reaction before making it official.

When to release bad news

Politically strategic timing (such as late Friday afternoons) used by administrations to release damaging or unpopular news so it receives minimal media coverage over the weekend.

Laugh-In

A popular 1960s NBC comedy sketch show where Richard Nixon famously delivered the line "Sock it to me!", proving politicians could use entertainment media to humanize their image.

Demagoguery

Political speech that appeals to fear, anger, prejudice, and simplistic emotional triggers rather than rational argument to manipulate the masses.

Frank Luntz

Influential Republican pollster and strategist famous for pioneering strategic political framing and language re-branding (e.g., calling the estate tax the "death tax" or global warming "climate change").

Two standard ways to think of Hollywood and politics

1. Hollywood as a mirror reflecting existing American social and political values; 2. Hollywood as a hammer actively shaping, molding, and shifting public political culture.

Why Mr. Smith Goes to Washington (1939) is important

Frank Capra's classic film remains vital because it highlights the enduring American populist myth of the idealistic outsider fighting a corrupt, entrenched political machine.

A Face in the Crowd (1957) and its modern meaning

Elia Kazan's dark satire about an ordinary drifter who becomes a powerful, manipulative media demagogue; serves as a chilling warning about the intersection of television, celebrity, and authoritarian politics.

Impact of The China Syndrome (1979)

A thriller about a nuclear power plant accident released just 12 days before the real Three Mile Island disaster, dramatically shifting public opinion against nuclear energy.

The Birth of a Nation (1915)

D.W. Griffith's silent epic that glorified the Ku Klux Klan and used distorted history to promote white supremacy, famously screened inside Woodrow Wilson's White House.

The Great Dictator (1940)

Charlie Chaplin's courageous cinematic satire mocking Adolf Hitler and fascism directly before the United States entered World War II.

Norman Lear

Legendary television producer of groundbreaking 1970s sitcoms (All in the Family, Maude) who used comedy to inject real-world social and political debates (civil rights, abortion, war) into American living rooms.

The Real World

MTV’s pioneering reality television series that brought diverse identities, LGBTQ+ visibility (such as Pedro Zamora), and real social conflict directly into youth culture.

Sidney Poitier

Groundbreaking actor who broke racial barriers by playing dignified, intelligent, and complex Black leading roles during the Civil Rights era, shifting racial representation in Hollywood.

Representation (Hollywood)

The presence and portrayal of diverse racial, gender, and LGBTQ+ groups in film and TV, which shapes societal empathy, political visibility, and civil rights progress.

Recent movies and their civil rights impact

Modern films (such as Selma, Moonlight, Hidden Figures, or Get Out) challenge historical erasure, highlight systemic racism or LGBTQ+ experiences, and keep civil rights issues active in public discourse.