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Deloitte Holiday Forecast 2026

Projected U.S. holiday retail sales of 1.70-1.71 trillion, showing a growth of 4.0%-4.8% over the prior holiday season.

E-Commerce Growth

Holiday e-commerce sales expected to reach 316.1-318.9 billion, with a year-over-year growth of 7.5%-8.4%.

Disposable Personal Income (DPI)

Forecasted to grow 4.5%-5.2% during the holiday season, indicating a strong predictor of retail and e-commerce spending.

Value-Seeking Consumer Behavior

Shoppers focus on making holidays special while carefully managing budgets, comparing retailers, seeking promotions, and shopping strategically.

Self-Service Customer Experience

Self-service experiences should empower users, balancing automation with human empathy.

Modern Customers Expectations

Customers demand control, speed, and simplicity in self-service offerings.

Ralph Lauren's Strategy

Reversed brand dilution by reducing discounting, focusing on controlled retail channels, and appealing to Gen Z with elevated storytelling.

Choosing Retail Locations

A successful location aligns with target demographics, assesses competitive landscape, and ensures accessibility.

Gymshark's Growth

Grew from a garage startup to a £646M brand by focusing on a specific fitness subculture and pioneering influencer marketing.

Kith Rewards Program

Focuses on emotional connection and exclusivity, offering non-expiring points and status tiers for members.

Supreme's Business Model

Built on scarcity and collaborations, Supreme became an iconic streetwear brand while facing authenticity pressures after acquisition.

Rapha's Decline

Premium cycling brand that faced nine years of losses after acquisition due to growth dilution and brand promise erosion.

Supply Chain and Brand Strategy

Supply chains should reinforce the brand promise and not just maximize production volume.

New Revenue Streams in Retail

Retailers are leveraging platforms like retail media, data monetization, and B2B services for growth and enhancing consumer experience.

BCG's Retailer Analysis

Top retailers achieve one-third of total shareholder return from new revenue streams like marketplaces.

Walmart's New Strategies

Leads in executing retail media, data monetization, and a third-party marketplace to enhance consumer offerings.

Target's Loyalty Program

Excellently monetizes traffic with deep loyalty integration via its Target Circle program and uses first-party data for personalization.

Kroger's Data Strategy

Utilizes its analytics arm to monetize customer data, offering personalized promotions and investing in automated fulfillment.

Best Buy's Digital Transformation

Diversified into services and third-party marketplaces while developing tech support services for B2B offerings.