spanish politics midterm

Before the Republic, Spain was a

monarchy under King Alfonso XIII

Elections of 1931

• Municipal elections in April 1931 were perceived as a major vote on the monarchy itself.

• Although monarchists won in rural areas (due to local bosses / caciquismo), republican coalitions swept the major cities.

• Suspended from his duties, the King left for exile to avoid bloodshed, leading to the peaceful proclamation of the Second Republic on April 14, 1931.

The Reformist Agenda (1931-1933)

• Agrarian reform: Land redistribution in the South

• Educational/Religious reform: Secularization of schools, reducing Church power

• Military reform: Reducing the size of a macrocephalic officer corps

• Territorial reform: Drafting a Statute of Autonomy for Catalonia

• The Reaction: These reforms severely threatened traditional power structures (Church, Army, Landowners).

The Conservative Turn (1933-1935)

Center-right coalition wins elections and paralyzes previous reforms

October 1934 Revolution

Major uprising by miners in Asturias violently suppressed by the army, deepening the political divide

The Popular Front (February 1936) + The Breakdown of Democracy

• A narrow victory for the left-wing coalition leads to extreme polarization

• Institutional deadlock, street violence, and a lack of moderate consensus paved the way for the military coup in July 1936

The Non-Intervention Agreement

Western democracies (UK, France) refused to intervene, fearing a broader European war

Who aided the The Rebels (Nationalists)

Received massive, decisive military aid (troops, planes, weapons) from Nazi Germany and Fascist Italy

who aided the republic

• Soviet Union (which created internal political conflicts) and volunteer International Brigades

When was the military coup proceeding the civil war

• July 17-18, 1936

• It failed to take the whole country, splitting Spain in two

• •Republicans: Loyalists, urban workers, secularists, regional nationalists

• Nationalists (Rebels): Military, conservative Catholics, monarchists, Falangists.

The Francoist Dictatorship (1939–1975)

• Nationalists win war

• Institutional Foundations

  • No political parties allowed (except the state party: Movimiento Nacional)

  • Systematic repression of political dissidents

  • Strict censorship and Catholic moral control (National-Catholicism)

  • Absolute suppression of regional languages (Catalan, Basque, Galician) and identities

Phases of the Franco Regime

• The Autarky (1940s-1950s)

  • Economic isolation, poverty, rationing, and international ostracism

• The Cold War Shift (1953)

  • The US signs military agreements with Spain. The regime gains international recognition as an anti-communist ally

• The Technocratic Era (1960s):

  • Technocrats drive economic liberalization following the 1959 Stabilization Plan.

  • The "Spanish Economic Miracle" (tourism, industrialization, migration to cities).

Economic Modernization vs. Political Stagnation

• Mass migration from rural villages to cities

• Expansion of university education

• Millions of European tourists bringing foreign ideas

• The creation of a large, urban middle class

• By the time Franco died in 1975, the society had modernized, but the political structure remained frozen in the 1940s

Collective Memory

How society constructs, shares, and uses interpretations of the past for present purposes

Amnesty Law (1977)

Forgave political crimes of the dictatorship but also prevented the prosecution of human rights abuses by the Franco regime.

Social Transformations 70s Spain

• Urbanization & Internal Migration

• Birth of the Middle Class

• Generational Shift

• Secularization

The Vatican II Shift (1962–1965)

• The global Church began championing human rights, causing a deep internal fracture in the Spanish clergy.

• contrary to previous support for the dictatorship

• Cardinal Taracon distanced from Francoism

25th of April

Portugal (1974): The Carnation Revolution dismantled dictatorship via a military coup, causing panic among Spanish elites about radical left army takeovers

Pressure of “3rd wave democratization”

• Greece (1974): The collapse of the Regime of the Colonels highlighted the vulnerability of Mediterranean autocracies

• EEC Pressure: The European Economic Community made full democratic institutions an explicit requirement for economic integration.

Assassination of Carrero Blanco

• Assassination of Carrero Blanco 1973

• ETA killed Franco’s designated successor, shattering the regime’s continuity plans

Arias Navarro’s Failure (1974-1976)

• Attempted timid reforms (Espíritu del 12 de febrero) but remained a prisoner of the hardliners (El Búnker)

"De la Ley a la Ley"

• Torcuato Fernández-Miranda (Suárez’s mentor and President of the Cortes)

• The Dilemma

  • How to create a democracy without breaking the legal continuity of the authoritarian state (which would provoke a military coup)

• The Solution

  • Using Article 10 of the Francoist Fundamental Laws, which allowed constitutional amendments via the Francoist Cortes and a national referendum

• The Outcome

  • Authoritarian institutions legally voted themselves out of existence without creating a legal vacuum.

Terrorist Threats from Multiple Fronts

• ETA (Basque Separatists): Escalated assassinations targeting military officers to provoke a army coup

• GRAPO (Far-Left): Executed high-profile kidnappings and bombings to disrupt stability

• Far-Right Violence: Neo-fascist paramilitaries (Guerrilleros de Cristo Rey) targeted left-wing activists.

Death of Franco

• 1975

• King Juan Carlos I becomes Head of State.

• Arias Navarro cannot lead the reform→ Adolfo Suárez is appointed

The Atocha Massacre

• 1977, far-right gunmen murdered 5 labor attorneys in Atocha Street, Madrid

• goal was to trigger violence from the left, forcing the military to impose martial law

• PCE (communist) Response: Carrillo organized a silent, disciplined funeral march

• Proved to Suárez, the King, and public opinion that the Communist Party was responsible, disciplined, and essential for stability.

The "Black Week"

• Extreme tension. Far-right terrorists murdered five left-wing labor lawyers (Atocha massacre)

• PCE responded with massive, peaceful, and highly disciplined protests

• Suárez realized a true democracy was impossible without the main anti-Francoist opposition force

Legalization of the PCE

• Holy Saturday (April 1977): Suárez unexpectedly legalizes the Communist Party (PCE) while the military leadership was on holiday.

• in exchange for legalization, PCE leader Santiago Carrillo accepted the Monarchy and the traditional red and yellow Spanish flag.

The 1977 Elections: "Alphabet Soup"

• UCD (Center): Led by Suárez. A moderate coalition of former reformist regime officials, liberals, and Christian democrats

• PSOE (Center-Left): Led by young Felipe González. Pushed for a modern, European social democracy

• PCE (Left): Led by Carrillo. The historical anti-Francoist resistance

• AP (Right): Led by Manuel Fraga. Represented conservative, former regime figures.

Results of the 1977 Elections

• Held on June 15, 1977

• The electoral system (D’Hondt method, provincial districts) favored moderate and large parties, avoiding extreme fragmentation in parliament

• Suárez and UCD win

The Moncloa Pacts (1977): Economic Stabilization

• 1977 — all major parliamentary parties, trade unions, and employers

• Left unions accepted wage growth caps tied to expected (lower) inflation, not past inflation

• Business and government agreed to progressive tax reform, welfare expansion, and job creation controls.

• Proved political consensus could solve economic emergency

• Established the foundations of the modern Spanish welfare state

Ponencia Constitucional (Drafting Committee-7)

• UCD (3 seats): Gabriel Cisneros, Miguel Herrero y Rodríguez de Miñón, José Pedro Pérez-Llorca

• PSOE (1 seat): Gregorio Peces-Barba. (UC3M founder)

• PCE/PSUC (1 seat): Jordi Solé Tura.

• AP (1 seat): Manuel Fraga Iribarne.

• Catalan Nationalists (1 seat): Miquel Roca i Junyent

• Glaring Absence: The Basque Nationalist Party (PNV) was excluded from the committee, causing long-term legitimacy debates in the Basque Country.

Key Compromises of Constitution

• Form of State: Parliamentary Monarchy (concession by the left)

• Religion: Non-confessional state, but acknowledging cooperation with the Catholic Church

• Territorial Model: The highly ambiguous "State of Autonomies" to balance national unity with historical regional demands (Catalonia, Basque Country).

Article 2 of spanish constitution

• Article 2: "The Constitution is based on the indissoluble unity of the Spanish Nation... and guarantees the right to autonomy of the nationalities and regions..."

• The term "Nationalities" (Nacionalidades) was insisted upon by Catalan and Basque representatives

• The Military High Command saw the term as an explicit step toward national dissolution.

• A delicate ambiguity that allowed consensus but left territorial sovereignty permanently contested.

Rationalized Parliamentarism

• Structural mechanisms to guarantee executive stability and avoid legislative paralysis

• Inspired by the German Grundgesetz (1949) to prevent the instability of the Second Republic (where governments fell constantly)

• It is intentionally made easy to form a government, but difficult to overthrow one.

• A political system strongly skewed toward Executive Dominance over the legislative branch.

Mechanism I: The Investiture Process (Art. 99 CE)

• The King consults parliamentary leaders and proposes a candidate

• First Vote: Candidate needs an Absolute Majority (176/350 seats)

• Second Vote (48 hours later): Candidate only needs a Simple Majority (more YES than NO votes)

• Parliament invests the person of the Prime Minister, not the cabinet. The PM alone chooses, appoints, or dismisses ministers without parliamentary approval

Mechanism II: Constructive Vote of No Confidence (Art. 113 CE)

• To bring down a sitting Government, Parliament cannot simply vote "No" to the PM

• Requirements for a Moción de Censura:

  • Must be proposed by at least 1/10 of Deputies (35 seats)

  • Must explicitly propose an alternative candidate for Prime Minister

  • Must achieve an Absolute Majority (176 votes) to succeed

• Prevents "negative majorities" (far-right and far-left combining to defeat a government without agreeing on a successor)

• Only one successful moción de censura in modern Spanish history (Pedro Sánchez against Mariano Rajoy in June 2018).

Historical Record: Motions of No Confidence in Spain

• Since the adoption of the 1978 Constitution, 6 motions of no confidence have been presented, with only one succeeding

• 1980 — Felipe González (PSOE) vs. Adolfo Suárez (UCD): • Failed (152 in favor). Projecting PSOE as the primary governing alternative

• 1987 — Antonio Hernández Mancha (AP) vs. Felipe González (PSOE): • Failed (67 in favor). Attempted to consolidate right-wing leadership

• 2017 — Pablo Iglesias (Podemos) vs. Mariano Rajoy (PP): • Failed (82 in favor). Denounced corruption cases affecting the incumbent PP

• 2018 — Pedro Sánchez (PSOE) vs. Mariano Rajoy (PP): • SUCCESSFUL (180 in favor). First PM ousted after the Gürtel sentence

• 2020 & 2023 — Santiago Abascal / Ramón Tamames (Vox) vs. Pedro Sánchez (PSOE): • Failed (52 and 53 in favor). Used as opposition platforms during polarized periods.

Question of Confidence (Cuestión de Confianza, Art. 112 CE)

• The PM can ask Congress for support on their political program or a general declaration

• Requires only a Simple Majority to pass. If lost, the PM must resign

Dissolution of Cortes (Art. 115 CE)

• The PM holds the exclusive power to dissolve Congress, the Senate, or both, and call snap elections

• A powerful strategic weapon used by the Executive to discipline rebellious parliamentary allies or time elections for partisan advantage.

Question of Confidence in Spain

• Initiated exclusively by the Prime Minister (upon deliberation by the Cabinet) on a political program or policy statement

• Proposed only twice since 1978, both resulting in success:

  • 1980 — Adolfo Suárez (UCD): • PASSED

  • 1990 — Felipe González (PSOE): • PASSED

Decree-Laws (Real Decreto-Ley, Art. 86 CE)

• The Executive can enact immediate legislation in cases of "extraordinary and urgent necessity."

• Takes effect immediately, but must be ratified by the Congress of Deputies within 30 days.

• Cannot affect core constitutional rights, regional autonomy statutes, or electoral law.

• Originally designed as an exceptional tool, Decree-Laws have become a primary method of ordinary governance for both PSOE and PP administrations, bypassing long parliamentary debates.

Free Mandate vs. Party Discipline

Prohibition of Imperative Mandate (Free Mandate):

• Legal Principle (Art. 67.2 CE): MPs represent the entire nation, not just their party or district.

• Constitutional Doctrine: The parliamentary seat (escaño) belongs to the individual MP, not to the party. An MP cannot be legally forced to resign or vote in a specific way

• Party Discipline (Disciplina de Partido):

  • Political Reality: Internal party regulations enforce strict voting cohesion on parliamentary groups. •

  • Enforcement Tools: Fines for rebellious MPs, removal from committee posts, and exclusion from future electoral lists (descarte en listas)

  • Total legal freedom vs. near-total political obedience in closed-list party systems.

Asymmetric Bicameralism

Spain has a bicameral parliament (Cortes Generales), but power is heavily asymmetric.

Parliamentary Groups

• Governance in Congress is structured around Parliamentary Groups (Grupos Parlamentarios), not individual MPs

• Closed-List Proportional System: Party leaders control candidate selection on electoral lists. Defying party leadership means political career termination

• Spokesperson Model (Portavoz): Party whips control parliamentary speaking time, committee assignments, and voting directions

• Financial and Bureaucratic Resources: State subsidies and parliamentary resources flow to parliamentary groups, not individual deputies.

Office-Seeking Politicians

• Interested in the intrinsic benefits and power of holding ministerial posts (portfolios)

• A formateur can get other parties to join the government primarily by giving them office

Policy-Seeking Politicians

• Driven by the desire to shape public policy and legislative outcomes

• A formateur gets other parties to join by making policy concessions.

Gamson’s Law

Cabinet portfolios will be distributed among government parties in strict proportion to the number of seats each party contributes to the government’s legislative seat total

Minimal Winning Coalition (MWC)

A coalition in which there are just enough seats to controll congress

Least Minimal Winning Coalition

Among all possible MWCs, the formateur will choose the MWC with the lowest number of surplus seats to maximize their own share of office

Types of Minority Executivies

Single-Party Minority: A single party holds office without commanding a legislative majority.

Minority Coalition: Multiple cabinet parties that together still short of a majority.

A minority government must always rely on an implicit majority in the legislature in one of two ways:

Public Support Pacts: External parties publicly state they will support the government in investiture/no-confidence votes.

Ad-Hoc Majorities: The government builds legislative majorities on a bill-by-bill basis

Surplus Majority (Oversized) Government:

Comprises more parties than are strictly necessary to control a legislative majority

Why form an Oversized Cabinet?

• Formed during national emergencies or post-war periods (unity governments)

• Constitutional Reforms: Required when passing amendments that demand supermajorities (e.g., qualified 2/3 or 3/5 votes)

• Strategic Protection: Prevents any single small party from holding single-handed veto power over the cabinet

The "Open List" Model

The Constitution did not create the Autonomous Communities (CCAA); it merely established the right for territories to form them

Nationalities v Regions

• Nationalities: Refers historically to Catalonia, the Basque Country, and Galicia. Territories with their own distinct language, history of self-government (statutes approved during the Second Republic), and strong nationalist movements

• Regions: The rest of the Spanish provinces (e.g., Castilla y León, Extremadura, Murcia) which shared a common Spanish identity and had no historical claims for self-government prior to 1978.

The Andalusian Exception

• However, mass mobilizations on February 28, 1980, demanded access to autonomy via the Fast Track (Art. 151), refusing to be a "second-class" region

• Despite the UCD government’s attempts to stop it, Andalusia succeeded, completely disrupting the original plan of reserving the fast track only for the historical nationalities.

Exclusive Institutions of nationalities and regions

• Police Forces + Civil Law

The LOAPA (1982)

• Organic Law for the Harmonization of the Autonomic Process (LOAPA)

• Following the failed military coup of 1981 (23-F), the two main national parties—UCD (in government) and PSOE (in opposition)—panicked about the speed of decentralization

• Through the Pactos Autonómicos (1981), they agreed to pass the LOAPA to "harmonize" (slow down and rationally control) the transfer of powers to the regions

• Constitutional Court Ruling (1983): Struck down the core of LOAPA, ruling that the State could not unilaterally rewrite the constitutional distribution of powers via an ordinary law. The decentralization train could not be stopped.

The Constitutional Court

• The Constitutional Court (TC) became the de facto architect of the Territorial State

• Throughout the 1980s and 1990s, the TC had to resolve hundreds of jurisdictional conflicts between the central government and the Autonomous Communities

• Spain’s territorial model was not settled in 1978; it was built sentence by sentence through constitutional jurisprudence over 40 years.

"Café para todos"

• The political decision to generalize the creation of Autonomous Communities across the entire Spanish territory, rather than granting autonomy only to the historical nationalities

• Manuel Clavero Arévalo (UCD) argued that asymmetrical autonomy would create unacceptable inequalities between Spaniards

• 17 Autonomous Communities and 2 Autonomous Cities (Ceuta and Melilla), covering 100% of the national territory

Why Spain is NOT formally a Federation

• The 1978 Constitution locates sovereignty exclusively in the "Spanish people as a whole", not divided among constituent units.

• Federations usually form by independent states joining together (bottom-up). Spain decentralized from a unitary state (top-down)

• The Spanish Senate is not a true chamber of territorial representation (as we talked last week)

• Autonomous Communities cannot veto national constitutional amendments

Why Spain ACTS like a Federation

• Expenditure: The Spanish central government controls less public spending than the federal governments of the USA or Germany. The CCAA manage Healthcare and Education (the biggest welfare budgets)

• Constitutional Adjudication: The Constitutional Court acts exactly like a federal supreme court, resolving jurisdictional conflicts between the center and the regions.

• Intergovernmental Relations: Sectoral conferences (State + Regional ministers) operate like federal coordination bodies

The "Moreno Question"

• Dual Identity

• Citizens are asked how they identify themselves

The Foral Regime (Régimen Foral )

• Acknowledged in the 1st Additional Provision of the Constitution

• The Basque Country and Navarre collect 100% of all taxes in their territory (Income tax, Corporate tax, VAT)

• They do not participate in the financial solidarity pool with the rest of Spain

• Tremendous fiscal autonomy and significantly higher per-capita funding.

The Common Regime (Régimen Común)

• Applies to the rest of Spain

• The Central Government collects most major taxes.

• The funds go into a complex Solidarity Pool

• Wealthier regions pay more into the system than they receive back

• Poorer regions receive more than they collect, ensuring equal funding for public services across Spain.

The Basque Country

• Marked by ETA’s terrorism and a heavily divided society

• The Ibarretxe Plan (2003-2005)

Catalonia

• Dominated for decades by CiU (Convergència i Unió), a center-right nationalist coalition

• "Pactism" Strategy: CiU acted as a moderate kingmaker in Madrid (supporting both PSOE and PP governments) in exchange for gradual transfers of power and resources to Catalonia. Secession was not on their agenda.

I Legislatura (1979–1982): Decentralization & Autonomy

• Government: Adolfo Suárez / Leopoldo Calvo-Sotelo (UCD, Minority - 168 seats)

• PSA-PA forced the historical Art. 151 referendum for Andalusia (1980)

• Approval of LOAPA (1981)

II Legislatura (1982–1986): Absolute Majority & Institutionalization

• Government: Felipe González (PSOE, Absolute Majority - 202 seats)

• Non-State Representation (25 seats):

  • Catalonia: CiU (12), ERC (1)

  • Basque Country: PNV (8), HB (2), EE (1)

• Legislative Relevance:

  • Period of consolidation of regional institutions (first regional elections, launch of TV3 and ETB)

III Legislatura (1986–1989): Regional Expansion

• Government: Felipe González (PSOE, Absolute Majority - 184 seats)

• Non-State Representation (35 seats):

  • Catalonia: CiU (18)

  • Basque Country: PNV (6), HB (5), EE (2)

  • Canary Islands & Valencia: AIC (1), UV (1)

  • Galicia & Aragon: CG (1), PAR (1)

• Legislative Relevance:

  • First major expansion of non-state parties.

  • CiU expansion, 4th position overall.

IV Legislatura (1989–1993): The Return of Short Majorities

• Government: Felipe González (PSOE, 175 seats)

• Non-State Representation (36 seats):

  • Catalonia: CiU (18)

  • Basque Country: PNV (5), HB (4), EE (2), EA (2)

  • Valencia & Canary Islands: UV (2), AIC (1)

  • Aragon & Andalusia: PAR (1), PA (2)

• Legislative Relevance:

  • PSOE required ad-hoc negotiation with CiU and PNV to pass state budgets and secure parliamentary committee majorities, anticipating the kingmaker era

V Legislatura (1993–1996): The Golden Era of "Pactism"

• Government: Felipe González (PSOE, Minority - 159 seats)

• Non-State Representation (32 seats):

  • Catalonia: CiU (17), ERC (1)

  • Basque Country: PNV (5), HB (2), EA (1)

  • Canary Islands, Valencia & Aragon: CC (4), UV (1), PAR (1)

• Legislative Relevance (Pivotal Kingmakers):

  • Formal governance agreement between PSOE and CiU

  • Transfer of 15% of Income Tax (IRPF) collection to Autonomous Communities.

VI Legislatura (1996–2000): The Majestic Pact

• Government: José María Aznar (PP, Minority - 156 seats)

• • Non-State Representation (32 seats):

  1. Catalonia: CiU (16), ERC (1)

  2. Basque Country: PNV (5), HB (2), EA (1)

  3. Canary Islands, Galicia & Valencia: CC (4), BNG (2), UV (1)

• Legislative Relevance (Pivotal Kingmakers):

  • Pacto del Majestic (1996): PP secured investiture with CiU, PNV, and CC.

  • BNG entered Congress for the first time

VII Legislatura (2000–2004): PP Absolute Majority & Regional Growth

• José María Aznar (PP, Absolute Majority - 183 seats)

• Non-State Representation (34 seats):

  • Catalonia: CiU (15), ERC (1), ICV (1)

  • Basque Country: PNV (7), EA (1)

  • Canary Islands, Andalusia, Aragon & Galicia: CC (4), PA (1), CHA (1), BNG (3)

• Legislative Relevance:

  • PP’s absolute majority caused severe central-regional friction.

  • The Ibarretxe Plan (2003): The Basque Parliament proposed a "Free Association" model, which was formally rejected in Congress in 2005

  • High diversification: Regionalist parties from Aragon (CHA) and Andalusia (PA) gained seats.

VIII Legislatura (2004–2008): Statute Reforms & ERC Surge

• Government: José Luis Rodríguez Zapatero (PSOE, Minority - 164 seats)

• Non-State Representation (33 seats):

  • Catalonia: CiU (10), ERC (8)

  • Basque Country & Navarre: PNV (7), EA (1), NaBai (1)

  • Canary Islands, Galicia & Aragon: CC (3), BNG (2), CHA (1)

• Legislative Relevance:

  • Wave of Statutes of Autonomy reforms (Catalonia 2006, Valencia, Andalusia, Aragon, Balearic Islands)

  • Entry of Nafarroa Bai (NaBai) in Navarre

IX Legislatura (2008–2011): Economic Crisis & 2010 Statute Shock

• Government: José Luis Rodríguez Zapatero (PSOE, Minority - 169 seats)

• Non-State Representation (26 seats):

  • Catalonia: CiU (10), ERC (3)

  • Basque Country & Navarre: PNV (6), NaBai (1), UPN (2)

  • Canary Islands & Galicia: CC-PNC (2), BNG (2)

• Legislative Relevance:

  • During the 2008 financial crisis, PNV and CC became indispensable for passing state budgets in exchange for active employment policy transfers

  • June 2010: Constitutional Court ruling on the Catalan Statute (TC 31/2010), altering the territorial consensus.

X Legislatura (2011–2015): Fiscal Centralization & The Catalan Pivot

• Government: Mariano Rajoy (PP, Absolute Majority - 186 seats)

• Non-State Representation (38 seats):

  • Catalonia: CiU (16), ERC (3)

  • Basque Country: Amaiur (7), PNV (5), Geroa Bai (1)

  • Galicia, Canary Islands, Valencia, Asturias: BNG (2), CC-NC (2), Compromís (1), FAC (1)

• Legislative Relevance:

  • Strict fiscal control over regions

  • 2012 Pivot: CiU shifted from autonomism/kingmaking to open secessionism following Rajoy’s refusal of the "Pacto Fiscal."

XI & XII Legislaturas (2015–2019): End of Bipartisanship & 2018 Motion

• Government: Mariano Rajoy (PP, 2016-18) / Pedro Sánchez (PSOE, 2018-19)

• Non-State Representation (25-29 seats)

  • Catalonia: ERC (9), CDC / PDeCAT (8)

  • Basque Country: PNV (5), EH Bildu (2)

  • Valencia & Canary Islands: Compromís (4 in XI), CC (1), NC (1) •

• Legislative Relevance:

  • Collapse of the two-party system; 2017 Catalan referendum & invocation of Article 155.

  • June 2018 Motion of No Confidence: Pedro Sánchez ousted Rajoy with votes from PSOE, Podemos, ERC, PDeCAT, PNV, EH Bildu, Compromís, and NC — first successful motion of no confidence in modern Spanish history.

XIII & XIV Legislaturas (2019–2023): Peak Fragmentation & Coalition

• Government: Pedro Sánchez (PSOE-Unidas Podemos Coalition)

• Record Non-State Representation (11 Formations, 40 seats):

  • Catalonia: ERC (13), Junts (8/4), CUP (2)

  • Basque Country: PNV (6), EH Bildu (5)

  • Galicia, Canary Islands, Valencia, Cantabria, Teruel: BNG (1), CC (2), NC (1), Compromís (1), PRC (1), Teruel Existe (1)

• Legislative Relevance:

  • First coalition government in modern Spain based on external regional support.

XV Legislatura (2023–Present): Total Leverage & Legislative Friction

• Government: Pedro Sánchez (PSOE-Sumar Coalition)

• Non-State Representation (27 seats):

  • Catalonia: ERC (7), Junts (7)

  • Basque Country: EH Bildu (6), PNV (5)

  • Galicia, Canary Islands, Navarre: BNG (1), CC (1), UPN (1) •

• Legislative Relevance:

  • Investiture tied to the 2024 Amnesty Law

  • Recent Crisis: Junts vetoed government decrees (e.g. Housing Law decree), showing that non-state parties hold absolute blocking power over state legislation

Peripheral Nationalists

• Parties: PNV, EH Bildu (Basque); ERC, Junts/CiU, CUP (Catalonia); BNG (Galicia).

• Core Identity & Goals: Strong distinct national identity. They typically seek self-determination, structural redefinition of the State, or independence.

Regionalist / Provincial Parties

Parties: UPN (Navarra), Coalición Canaria, PRC (Cantabria), Foro Asturias, PAR (Aragón).

Core Identity & Goals: Dual identity (regional and Spanish). They focus on securing better territorial funding, local investments, and decentralization

Catalan 2006

• The Catalan Parliament drafted a new Statute of Autonomy to secure a better financial deal and symbolic recognition

• It was approved by the Spanish Parliament (with cuts) and ratified by Catalan voters in a legal referendum.

Catalan 2010

• After a 4-year legal battle initiated by the PP, the Constitutional Court struck down 14 articles and rewrote the interpretation of 27 others.

• Most crucially, it ruled that the term "Nation" used in the preamble to describe Catalonia had no legal validity

• The ruling broke the "constitutional pact" for many Catalans. If maximum autonomy was impossible within the 1978 framework, secession became the perceived alternative.

The 2012 Diada (National Day of Catalonia)

Over a million people marched in Barcelona demanding "Catalonia, next state in Europe."

October 2017 - Catalonia

• October 1, 2017 — Unconstitutional referendum held despite suspension by the Constitutional Court. • State security forces were deployed under judicial order to prevent voting at polling stations

  • Turnout was recorded at approximately 43%, with 90% of votes cast in favor of independence

• October 27, 2017: The Parliament of Catalonia passed a resolution declaring an independent Catalan Republic.

State response to Catalonia 2017

• Constitutional Intervention (October 27, 2017):

  • The Spanish Senate authorized the application of Article 155 of the Constitution

  • dismissed the Catalan Executive (Govern), dissolved Parliament, and called regional elections for December 21, 2017

• Judicial Proceedings:

  • The Public Prosecutor filed charges of rebellion, sedition, and misuse of public funds against leading political figures

• Key political and civic leaders were placed in pre-trial detention, while others moved abroad

  • December 2017 Regional Elections: Pro-independence parties retained a parliamentary majority (70 of 135 seats), though Ciudadanos became the most-voted single party.

2019 Supreme Court Verdict:

Nine leaders were convicted of sedition and misuse of public funds, receiving prison sentences ranging from 9 to 13 years.

Elite Negotiations in the Transition

• Context of 1977–1978: Elites drafting the rules feared electoral fragmentation

• Interests during Negotiations:

  • UCD (Center-Right): Demanded a system favoring rural, conservative areas where they had strong electoral footing

  • Left-wing opposition (PSOE / PCE): Demanded strict proportional representation to ensure equal representation

• The Compromise: Formally adopt a Proportional Representation system (to satisfy the Left), but embed strong majoritarian mechanics within it (to satisfy UCD and guarantee executive stability).

The Cube Root Law

• Taagepera→ the size of a national assembly (S) tends to approximate the cube root of the country’s active population (P)

• Formula: S ≈ √3 P

Ballot Structure

• Voters cast a single vote for a pre-ordered party list as an indivisible unit, with no power to alter candidate rankings or select individual representatives.

• Pros:

  • Promotes party cohesion and discipline (MPs rely on party leadership for re-election).

  • Enables guaranteed descriptive representation (e.g., gender quotas via zipper systems).

• Cons:

  • Severely weakens direct candidate-voter accountability.

  • Centralizes power within party elites ("partitocracia").

Spanish Congress Ballot

• Indivisible Choice

  • The voter selects a single party paper (papeleta) and places it inside the envelope.

  • Zero Voter Personalization:

    • Candidate order is fixed strictly by party leadership.

    • No checkboxes or ranking options exist for individual candidates.

  • Seat Allocation: Seats won by the party in the province are assigned strictly top-down (from Candidate #1 downwards).

District Magnitude (M)

• District Magnitude (M): The number of seats allocated to a specific electoral district.

The Allocation Rule in Spain

• Every province receives an initial fixed minimum of 2 seats (Ceuta and Melilla get 1 each) = 102 seats.

• The remaining 248 seats are distributed strictly proportional to population.

• The Resulting Asymmetry:

  • Large M districts: Madrid (M ≈ 37), Barcelona (M ≈ 32). • Small M districts: Over 30 provinces have M ≤ 5 (e.g., Soria M = 2, Teruel M = 3)

D’Hondt vs. District Magnitude

• Public debate often blames the D’Hondt formula for electoral disproportionality in Spain.

• D’Hondt has a minor effect on seat distribution.

• The main driver of disproportionality is the small magnitude of most electoral districts (M) combined with the initial 2-seat minimum allocation.

D’Hondt rule in spain

• The D'Hondt rule is a mathematical formula used in Spain to convert votes into legislative seats proportionally in general, regional, local, and European elections

• Parties must win at least 3% of the valid votes in a general election (or 5% in local elections) to qualify for seat distribution

The Three Mechanical Biases of the LOREG

• Bipartisan/Majoritarian Bias:

  • Overrepresents the top two nationwide parties (historically PP and PSOE) by awarding them bonus seats in small provinces.

• Spatial Concentration Bias:

  • Regional and nationalist parties (e.g., PNV, EH Bildu, Junts, ERC) receive a PROPORTIONAL share of seats because their vote is concentrated in a few medium/large provinces.

• Penalty on Third Nationwide Parties:

  • Parties with nationwide support but no geographic concentration (historically IU, UPyD, and later Ciudadanos/Vox) suffer severe seat loss in small/medium provinces

Malapportionment

• Discrepancy between the share of population and the share of legislative seats assigned to a district.

• Because less populated provinces get 2 fixed seats regardless of population, rural areas are systematically overrepresented relative to urban centers

• Conservative parties historically benefited from higher support in rural, smaller districts, granting them a structural advantage in legislative seat conversion.

Limited Vote system

• District Magnitudes & Voting Limits:

  • Provinces (M=4): Voters can select up to 3 candidates.

  • Major Islands (M=3): Gran Canaria, Mallorca, Tenerife. Voters select up to 2 candidates. • Ceuta & Melilla (M=2): Voters select up to 2 candidates. • Minor Islands (M=1): Ibiza-Formentera, Menorca, etc. Voters select 1 candidate.

• Result: Plurality rules. In a 4-seat province, the most voted party typically takes 3 seats, and the second party takes 1 (a 3-1 split).

Single Unified Ballot ("La Sábana"):

Contains all candidates from all competing parties on one sheet