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Business cycle
short-run fluctuations around potential GDP that are driven by changes to aggregate demand
Capacity utilization
the percentage of business’ capacity that is being used for production
Countercyclical (stabilization) monetary policy
monetary policy that pushes against the current direction of a business cycle
Consider an economic shock that results in an increase in aggregate demand for the economy
In the short run, what are the expected changes to firm production levels, the price level
in the economy, and the unemployment rate?
▪ Firms would be expected to increase production levels.
▪ Firms would be expected to keep prices unchanged.
▪ Higher production would result in lower unemployment.
Consider an economic shock that results in an increase in aggregate demand for the economy
In the long run, what is the expected outcome for GDP, unemployment, and inflation if
monetary policy is successful?
▪ GDP will return to its long-run trend (potential GDP).
▪ Unemployment will return to the level associated with potential GDP.
▪ Inflation will remain stable
Consider an economic shock that results in an increase in aggregate demand for the economy
In the medium run, what happens to capacity utilization? How do changes in capacity
and unemployment cause pressure for higher inflation? What is the expected response
from the Federal Reserve?
▪ Capacity utilization will increase as firms continue to increase production. Firms
will run out of excess capacity, and this will force them into raising prices.
▪ Lower unemployment means that firms need to compete more for labor, forcing
them to pay higher wages.
▪ Both of these will pressure inflation to increase in the economy.