APHG Chapter 2: Population & Health Flashcards

Vocabulary flashcards covering all 78 key concepts, terms, and cases from APHG Chapter 2: Population & Health.

Why does population geography matter? (3 reasons)

1) More people are alive now than at any other point in history. 2) Virtually all global growth is in developing countries. 3) Growth in the second half of the 20th century was the fastest ever; it has slowed since, but is still high by historical standards.

Carrying capacity

The maximum population size the environment can sustain indefinitely, given available resources like food and water. Depends on the natural environment and on how humans modify it (agriculture, industry, raw materials).

Overpopulation

When the number of people exceeds the environment's capacity to support life at a decent standard of living. A threat in some regions but not others. The most populous regions are not always the ones with the worst people-to-resources balance.

Demography

The scientific study of population characteristics. Demographers study how people are distributed by age, gender, occupation, fertility, health, etc.

Census

A complete enumeration (count) of a population. The single most important data source for population geography. U.S. census happens every 10 years, in years ending in 0.

Two reasons the census is controversial

Nonparticipation: homeless people, ethnic minorities and undocumented people may avoid it out of fear. Sampling: statistical sampling can be more accurate, but the U.S. Supreme Court ruled it can't be used to redraw Congressional districts.

The four major population clusters

East Asia, South Asia, Europe, Southeast Asia. Together hold about two-thirds of the world's people. Mostly low-lying, fertile, temperate land near an ocean or river.

South Asia cluster

Biggest concentration: a 1,500 km corridor from Lahore, Pakistan through India and Bangladesh to the Bay of Bengal. Concentrated on the plains of the Indus and Ganges rivers. Also heavy along India's two coasts: Arabian Sea (west), Bay of Bengal (east).

East Asia cluster

China: world's most populous country (India passing it) and 4th largest by area. People cluster near the Pacific coast and in fertile river valleys. Much of China's interior is sparsely settled mountains and deserts.

Southeast Asia cluster

Indonesia: 14,752 islands, 4th most populous country. Largest concentration is Java, with more than 150 million people. Also dense: Philippine islands, river valleys and deltas of the mainland.

Europe cluster

About four dozen countries, from Monaco (2 sq km) to Russia (largest by area). Densest near the major rivers of Germany and Belgium, and capital cities like London and Paris.

Other notable concentrations

Western Hemisphere's largest: northeastern U.S. and southeastern Canada. Africa: west coast from Senegal to Nigeria, and east coast from Eritrea to South Africa.

Four kinds of sparsely populated land

Too dry: deserts, about 20% of land; can't grow enough crops; some herding; often hold petroleum. Too wet: near the equator; rain + heat strip soil nutrients. Too cold: polar lands, ice and permafrost. Too high: steep, snowy mountains (exception: some high plateaus at low latitudes are dense).

Cartogram

A map that sizes countries by population instead of land area. Canada is 2nd largest by area but 38th by population, so it looks small. Bangladesh is 92nd by area but 8th by population, so it looks large.

Ecumene

The portion of Earth's surface occupied by permanent human settlement. It has grown over time (most land occupied by 7,000 years ago, except Antarctica). About 3/4 of people live on only 5% of Earth's surface. Oceans cover about 71%.

Arithmetic density

Total number of people ÷ total land area. Answers the 'where' question. Data is easy to get, so it's the most common measure. Example: Canada 4, U.S. 36, Egypt 97, Netherlands 511 people per sq km.

Arable land

Land suited for agriculture.

Physiological density

Number of people per unit of arable land. Shows how much pressure people put on land to produce food. Egypt: 97 arithmetic vs 3,350 physiological, because about 95% of Egyptians live in the Nile valley and delta.

Agricultural density

Ratio of farmers to the amount of arable land. Lower in developed countries: technology and finance let a few farmers feed many people. Example: U.S. 0.4, Netherlands 9, Egypt 208.

Egypt vs the Netherlands: what do their densities show?

Both have high physiological density (Egypt 3,350, Netherlands 1,668), so both put heavy pressure on the land. Dutch agricultural density is far lower (9 vs 208), so Dutch farming is more efficient and needs fewer farmers.

Natural increase rate (NIR)

Percentage by which a population grows in a year. $\text{NIR} = \text{CBR} - \text{CDR}$. 'Natural' means it excludes migration. World NIR in the 21st century: about 1.2%.

Where is population growth happening?

More than 95% of natural increase is in developing countries. Share of growth since 1980: Asia 66%, sub-Saharan Africa 20%, Latin America 9%, North America 4%, Europe 1%. NIR is above 2.0% in most of sub-Saharan Africa and negative in Europe.

NIR through history

Essentially zero for most of human history. All-time peak: 2.1% in the 1960s. Declining since the 1990s. People added per year: peak 93M (1988), 78M (1999), about 85M now. The drop is smaller than the NIR drop because the base is bigger.

Doubling time

Number of years needed to double a population, assuming a constant NIR. At 1.2%, about 58 years. At 2.1% (1968), 33 years. Tiny NIR changes cause huge swings: 2.1% through the 21st century would mean about 56 billion people by 2100.

Crude birth rate (CBR)

Total live births in a year for every 1,000 people alive. CBR of 20 = 20 babies per 1,000 people per year. Highest in sub-Saharan Africa (many over 35), lowest in Europe (many under 10). Map mirrors NIR.

Total fertility rate (TFR)

Average number of children a woman will have through her childbearing years (about 15 to 49). World 2.4. Sub-Saharan Africa 4.9. Europe 1.6. CBR is a snapshot of society as a whole; TFR predicts future behavior of individual women.

Infant mortality rate (IMR)

Annual deaths of infants under 1 year old per 1,000 live births. Reflects the quality of a country's health-care system. Europe 4 vs sub-Saharan Africa 54 (1 in 250 babies die vs 1 in 18).

Crude death rate (CDR)

Total deaths in a year for every 1,000 people alive. Does NOT follow the NIR/CBR pattern: developing countries 7, developed 10. Much less variation than CBR: CDR ranges 1 to 16, CBR 7 to 48.

Why does rich Denmark have a higher CDR than poor The Gambia?

They are in different stages of the demographic transition. Denmark (stage 4) has a much older population, so more people die each year even with great health care. Same reason for Germany.

Demographic transition

Process of change from high CBR and CDR + low NIR, to low CBR and CDR + low NIR + higher total population. Two big breaks: 1) death rate drops from technology (happened everywhere); 2) birth rate drops from changing social customs (not yet everywhere).

Demographic transition Stage 1: Low growth

Very high CBR, very high CDR, very low NIR. Most of human history. Hunting and gathering; population rose and fell with food supply. No country is in stage 1 today.

Demographic transition Stage 2: High growth

Still high CBR, rapidly declining CDR, very high NIR. Europe and North America entered after 1750 through the Industrial Revolution. Africa, Asia, Latin America entered around 1950 through the medical revolution. Example: The Gambia.

Industrial Revolution

A series of improvements in industrial technology that transformed manufacturing. Began in the UK in the late 1700s. Created wealth that made communities healthier, pushing Europe and North America into stage 2.

Medical revolution

Medical technology invented in Europe and North America that diffused to poorer countries after about 1950. Eliminated many traditional causes of death, pushing developing countries into stage 2.

The Gambia (stage 2)

Smallest country in Africa, one of the poorest. British colony until 1965. In stage 1 until the 1970s, when a WHO child immunization program cut the CDR. Fewer than 10% of women use family planning, so CBR stays high.

Demographic transition Stage 3: Moderate growth

Rapidly declining CBR, moderately declining CDR, moderate NIR. Why fewer kids: delayed reaction to lower mortality + people move to cities and office/factory jobs, where kids aren't farm help. Europe and North America: early 1900s. Asia and Latin America: late 1900s.

Mexico (stage 3)

Entered stage 2 in the 20th century; the government thought higher birth rates would boost the economy. After 1974: a constitutional amendment gave families the right to choose number and spacing of children, and a National Population Council promoted family planning. Birth rates dropped sharply.

Demographic transition Stage 4: Low growth

Very low CBR, low or slightly increasing CDR, zero or negative NIR. Why: women join the labor force; more access to birth control. Example: Denmark, in stage 4 since the 1970s.

Zero population growth (ZPG)

When CBR roughly equals CDR and NIR approaches zero. Typical of stage 4. Defined precisely as a TFR of about 2.1, which produces no long-term change in population.

Medical facilities: developed vs developing

Hospital beds per 10,000 people: many European countries 50+, sub-Saharan Africa and South/Southwest Asia under 30. Physicians per 10,000: Europe 30+, sub-Saharan Africa under 5.

Who pays for health care?

Most developed countries: government pays over 70% (Europe), individuals under 30%. Developing countries: individuals pay more than half. Exception: the U.S., where individuals pay about 55%, like a developing country.

Health-care spending gap

Per person per year: over $1,000 in developed countries vs under $100 in sub-Saharan Africa and South Asia. Share of government spending: over 15% in Europe/North America vs under 5% in SSA/South Asia. U.S.: over $5,000 per person and about 17% of GDP (vs about 11% in Canada and Europe). Only populous developed country without universal health care.

Maternal mortality rate

Annual female deaths per 100,000 live births from causes related to pregnancy. World: 216 in 2015, down from 385 in 1990. Over 500 in sub-Saharan Africa vs 8 in Europe. Top causes in poor countries: heavy bleeding, then high blood pressure. U.S. rate (14) is higher than other developed countries and has risen since 1990.

Sex ratio

Number of males per 100 females in the population. Natural ratio at birth: about 105 boys per 100 girls. At birth: China 114, India 112.

"Missing" baby girls

About 700,000 per year in China and India; 117 million across Asia over several decades (UN). Causes: sex-selective abortion (via ultrasound), infanticide, or girls hidden from officials. Root cause (UN): gender inequality. Son preference + small-family policies. Result: a large surplus of men who can't find wives.

Life expectancy

Average number of years an individual can be expected to live, given current social, economic and medical conditions. At birth: 81 in Europe vs 60 in sub-Saharan Africa.

Potential support ratio (elderly support ratio)

Number of working-age people (15 to 64) ÷ number of people 65 and older. World: about 9 now, expected about 4 by 2050. Smaller ratio = fewer workers paying for pensions and health care of the elderly.

Dependency ratio

People too young (under 15) or too old (over 64) to work, compared to people in their productive years. Europe 52% vs sub-Saharan Africa 85%. Higher ratio = bigger financial burden on workers.

Share of population under 15

World 26%. Developed countries 16%. Developing 28%. Sub-Saharan Africa 43%. Stage 2 countries have more young people because of high CBR/TFR and lower life expectancy. Strains schools, hospitals, day care in poor countries.

Population pyramid

A bar graph showing the percentage of a place's population by age and sex. Stage 2 (The Gambia): broad base, lots of young people. Stage 4 (Denmark): narrower base; top is wider on the female side because women live longer.

Epidemiology

Branch of medical science concerned with the incidence, distribution and control of diseases that are prevalent in a population at a particular time.

Epidemiologic transition

The distinctive causes of death in each stage of the demographic transition. Formulated by epidemiologist Abdel Omran in 1971. Uses geographic concepts like scale and connection to track diffusion.

Epidemic vs pandemic

Epidemic: widespread occurrence of an infectious disease in a community at a particular time. Pandemic: an epidemic over a wide geographic area that affects a very high proportion of the population.

Epidemiologic Stage 1: Pestilence & famine

Infectious and parasitic diseases, plus accidents and attacks, are the main killers. Malthus called these 'natural checks' on population. Black Plague (1347 to 1350): about 25 million Europeans died, at least half the continent.

Epidemiologic Stage 2: Receding pandemics

Better sanitation, nutrition and medicine during the Industrial Revolution reduce infectious disease. Cholera spread in crowded industrial cities; water and sewer systems ended it in Europe/North America by the late 1800s. Still persists in sub-Saharan Africa, South/Southeast Asia, Yemen.

Dr. John Snow's cholera map (1854)

British physician mapped cholera victims and water pumps in Soho, London. Deaths clustered around the Broad Street pump, whose water was contaminated by sewage. A hand-made early version of GIS.

Epidemiologic Stage 3: Degenerative diseases

Fewer deaths from infectious disease, more from chronic disorders of aging. Main two: cardiovascular disease and cancer. Cancer map is the opposite of stage 2 diseases: lowest in sub-Saharan Africa and South Asia because life expectancy is lower.

Epidemiologic Stage 4: Delayed degenerative & lifestyle diseases

Added by S. Jay Olshansky and Brian Ault. Heart disease and cancer linger but medicine delays them (slower cancer spread, bypass surgery). Helps: better diet, less tobacco and alcohol, exercise. Hurts: prescription and illegal drugs (opioids), junk food, sedentary life.

UN population estimates for 2100

Median: 11.2 billion. High: 16.2 billion. Low: 7.2 billion (a decline). The future depends mostly on fertility.

Possible demographic transition Stage 5

Very low CBR, increasing CDR, declining (negative) NIR. Few young women age into childbearing years, so CBR falls below stage 4 levels; an aging population raises CDR. Likely first: Japan.

Japan (possible stage 5)

Population peaked at 128 million in 2010; UN forecasts 84 million by 2100. Growing share of elderly; worker shortage. Response: get more Japanese (especially women) working rather than raise immigration.

Russia's negative NIR

Low CBR: long family-planning tradition and pessimism about the future. High CDR: legacy of Communist rule, poor pollution controls, inaccurate reporting.

Pronatalist vs antinatalist policy

Pronatalist: government policy that supports higher birth rates. Antinatalist: government policy that supports lower birth rates. China and India have both used antinatalist policies.

China's One Child Policy

Adopted 1980. Couples needed a permit to have a child. Rewards for one child: subsidies, maternity leave, housing, land. Free contraception, abortion, sterilization. Penalties for breaking rules. CBR fell 18 to 12 and NIR 1.2 to 0.5 (1980 to 2018). Relaxed since the UN forecasts decline by 2100.

India's population policies

First national family-planning program in the world (1952). 1970s: sterilization camps caused backlash and distrust. Now: education through radio/TV ads and health centers. Female sterilization still dominant. CBR fell 34 to 20 (1980 to 2018), but India still adds about 19 million a year and may pass China in the 2020s.

Two strategies for lowering birth rates

1) Education and health care: improve local economic conditions so women stay in school, gain economic control, know their reproductive rights, and see lower IMR. 2) Contraception: distribute modern birth control cheaply and quickly instead of waiting for development.

How fast has CBR fallen since 1990?

World: 27 to 20. Developing countries: 31 to 21. Fastest declines in Latin America and South/Southwest Asia.

Bangladesh and contraception

Little improvement in wealth or literacy, but contraceptive use among married women went from 6% (1980) to 62% (2017). Shows ideas can diffuse quickly. Similar growth in Colombia, Morocco, Thailand.

Family-planning use around the world

Developed countries: over 2/3 of couples use a method. Germany: mostly pill and condoms. China: highest rate; mostly IUDs and female sterilization. Sub-Saharan Africa: lowest. Nigeria: about 85% use no method, partly because men are reluctant. Opposition: religious and political, especially to abortion.

Possible epidemiologic Stage 5

A reemergence of infectious and parasitic diseases. Three reasons: evolution, poverty, increased connections. Some say it's only a temporary setback.

Stage 5 reason: Evolution

Microbes evolve resistance to drugs and insecticides. Malaria was nearly wiped out by DDT spraying in the mid-1900s, but DDT-resistant mosquitoes evolved. Malaria now kills about half a million people a year, nearly all in sub-Saharan Africa.

Stage 5 reason: Poverty

Infectious disease thrives where sanitation is poor and people can't afford drugs. Example: tuberculosis (TB, 'consumption'). Airborne lung disease spread by coughing and sneezing. Controlled in developed countries; a major killer in developing ones. Treatment is long and expensive; poor nutrition and HIV raise risk.

Stage 5 reason: Increased connections

Relocation diffusion: travelers carry diseases with them. AIDS: 35 million deaths through 2017; 37 million living with HIV, 26 million of them in sub-Saharan Africa. Entered the U.S. in the early 1980s through New York, California and Florida, home to the top international airports. New U.S. diagnoses fell through expansion diffusion of prevention and medicine. Highest rates now in the South (Louisiana, Georgia).

Thomas Malthus's theory

1798, An Essay on the Principle of Population. Population grows geometrically (1, 2, 4, 8, 16); food grows arithmetically (1, 2, 3, 4, 5). Only 'moral restraint' (lower CBR) or disease, famine, war (higher CDR) could stop population from outrunning food.

Malthus: people vs food after 200 years?

Population doubles every 25 years: $200 \div 25 = 8$ doublings, so $2^8 = 256$ persons. Food adds 1 unit every 25 years: $1 + 8 = 9$ units of food.

Neo-Malthusians

Argue Malthus is even more frightening today. Many poor countries are in stage 2, so the gap between population and resources is wider than Malthus expected. Population is outstripping many resources, not just food: also water and energy.

Critics of Malthus

Food grew faster than predicted: wheat twice as fast; better techniques, higher-yield seeds, more farmland. Population grew slower than predicted, even in India. But Africa may be exceeding carrying capacity: worn-out land, women work longer days, and more children are seen as farm help.

China vs Africa: food and population

China: food production has outpaced population growth, supporting Malthus's critics. Africa: food production has roughly kept pace with population, so production per person has barely improved, closer to the Neo-Malthusian worry.