US Primacy and Decline

What is Primacy

A grand strategic objective that seeks to preserve the US as the world’s dominant power

What does primacy assume

That US security and prosperity are best protected when no rival can challenge their dominance

Explain the connection between Walt and primacy

Walt argues the US has often acted as a hegemonic power seeking to preserve its dominant position

How do realists measure decline

Through changes in material capabilities such as military strength and economic power

Why would American influence be preserved if their power declines

Because, as Ikenberry says, by creating the post-1945 liberal world order, the US has created a durable system that benefits both itself and its alies

How did the US emerge from the Cold War

With global military reach, extensive overseas bases, advanced technology, and a network of alliances

Why does military superiority not necessarily guarantee political success

Because interventions in Iraq and Afghanistan produced long term instability and demonstrated overwhelming military power can fail to produce stable political outcomes

How did Afghanistan and Iraq damage US credibility

The interventions undermined the claim that the US promotes global stability as they lead to long-term instability

What is soft power

The ability to attract other states to do what you want, rather than coercing them

What is hard power

When a state coerces other states though military force or economic sanctions

How does Ikenberry relate to soft power

He says the US strategically embedded their power within institutions and encouraged cooperation though rules, institutions and economic openness

How did exceptionalism contribute to US soft power

By projecting an image of democracy, liberty and self-government

What did the January 6th riots highlight

Tensions between the US’ democratic rhetoric and domestic political reality

Besides China, what does Ikenberry identify as a challenge to the liberal world order

Democratic erosion within liberal states

What is considered the most significant external challenge to American primacy

The rise of China

What has led to China intensifying the great power competition

Rapid economic growth, military modernisation and expanding national influence

What do realists say about rising powers

That they will inevitably challenge dominant states

What advantages does the US have over China

Stronger alliance networks, global military reach, technological leadership and international influence

Why would liberals say US influence will continue despite the rise of China

Because China’s integration into the global economy has occured largely within a US-created international system

Besides China, what is another external challenge to US leadership

Russia’s renewed assertiveness

How has Russia challenged the US led international system

Through military aggression

What are the limits on Russia’s influence

Limited economic capacity and global influence

What has Russia’s challenge highlighted

NATO’s relevance and dependence on US leadership

What theory aligns with Trump’s transactional approach to NATO burden sharing and why

Realism as Trump believes alliances should directly serve national interests

How does liberalism see NATO

As an institution that amplifies US power and provides long term strategic benefits such as intelligence sharing

How does NATO show that no alternative leader has emerged to challenge US primacy

Because it shows there is continued reliance on US security guarantees, and NATO signals the ongoing centrality of US leadership

What did January 6th expose regarding American domestic politics

Deep democratic polarisation and concerns regarding democratic instability

Why is democratic instability bad for the US

Because historically their leadership has rested on democratic legitimacy, so democratic instability can undermine international credibility

What internal factors affect the US’ ability to present coherent foreign policy

Political polarisation, declining trust in institutions and contested elections