Public Opinion

Public opinion

'What people think about an issue or set of issues at any given point in time.' It changes over time.

Efforts to influence public opinion

Straw polls (asking people as many questions as possible, 1930s). Politicians want their own spin on events.

Political socialization

The process of influencing opinion. Six agents: (1) family; (2) mass media; (3) schools; (4) social groups; (5) opinion leaders; (6) events.

Political socialization: family

Teaches you how to think and learn skills.

Political socialization: mass media

Social media, TV, magazines.

Political socialization: schools

Teach the values of the American political system (history, flag salute).

Political socialization: social groups

Religion, race, gender, age.

Political socialization: opinion leaders

People of influence.

Political socialization: events

9/11, JFK, wars shape views.

Sociological factors in forming opinion

Income and occupation; education; region (where you live); sex and age; religious and ethnic background; family make-up.

Psychological factors in forming opinion

Party affiliation and identification; perception of candidates' policies; feeling that your vote will make a statement; programs like the Motor-Voter Act (made registration to vote easier, done at the DMV). (Starred)

Ideology spectrum

Liberal - Moderate - Conservative.

Liberal

Seeks to change the political, economic, or social status; deeper cooperative federalism. 'One who believes in more government action to meet individual needs.'

Moderate

A person without extreme views.

Conservative

'Defender of the status quo; if change becomes necessary, prefers it to come slowly, in moderation.'

Libertarian

Based upon individual freedom; limiting of state power; big government is evil.

Populism

A political party that claims to represent the 'common people' against a perceived corrupt (elite).

Why we form political opinions: personal benefit

Americans are 'me oriented': they choose policies and parties that favor them personally.

Political knowledge (Americans)

Highly illiterate; most Americans don't know how government works.

Effect of low political knowledge

Low levels of knowledge make public opinions hard to measure, and opinions sway quickly.

Measuring public opinion

Look through election results, contacts, public opinion, and surveys.

Fair polls: 3 requirements

(1) Question wording; (2) sampling: random; (3) contacting respondents: random calling.

Tracking poll

A continuous survey that lets a campaign chart its fall and rise.

Push poll

Leads a subject to a conclusion, 'pushing' them away from other candidates.

Exit poll

Asking people on election day as they leave the polling place.

Problems with polls

Sampling errors, limited respondent options, lack of information, intensity.

Census

Taken every 10 years. Immigrants are a key factor of population increase.

2020 Census patterns

Population aging and low births. Fastest growth in the West and South. Greater diversity (younger millennials).

Demographics and party: gender (starred)

Men are more Republican (money). Women vote more Democratic (community).

Demographics and party: Asian Americans

Mostly Democratic.

Demographics and party: Black Americans

73% Democratic; 11% say no.

Demographics and party: Hispanic Americans

57% Democrat; 14% say no.

Demographics and party: white Americans

54% Republican.

Demographics and party: no college degree

45% Republican / 43% lean Democrat.

Demographics and party: college grad

Tend to be Democrat (55%).

Demographics and party: high school only

Tend to lean Republican (45%).

Demographics and party: some college

46% Democrat, 45% Republican.

Demographics and party: college degree (analysis)

Lean Democrat (51%).

Demographics and party: postgraduate degree

Lean Democrat (61%); 38% Republican.

Demographics and party: age

18-29: 54% Democrats. 30-49: 39% Democrats. 50-64: 65% Republican. 65+: more Democratic.

Voter turnout patterns

Women are most likely to go vote compared to men. Turnout among white and non-Hispanic people is high compared to other races.