Exam 2: Study guide

Public opinion and polling

Public opinion is a collection of popular views about a person, event, or idea. Modern scientific polling began in the 1930s with George Gallup, and its accuracy rests on sampling and question wording.

Random Sample

Everyone in the population has an equal chance of being picked, e.g. random digit dialing across diverse people at varied hours

Non- Random (unscientific samples)

Call-in polls, social media polls, and people stopped outside one store; they reflect who chose to respond

sample size

a solid national poll has about 1,000 respondents

margin of error

an acceptable national margin is about 3 to 5%

Biased or leading question

wordin that is not neutral and pushes the respondent toward one answer (e.g. mentioning “dramatic increase in taxes")

push poll

a fake poll that gives misleading information to persuade people to vote against a candidate

bandwagon effect

a frontrunner gets a boost because voters like to back the leader

bradley effect

voters tell pollsters they support a candidate, or hide that they do not, because the honest answer feels socially unacceptable

exit poll

taken as voters leave the polling place; the most accurate type, since respondents have actually voted

straw and brushfire polls

informal or early polls, less accurate

why policy polling matters

the government tends to respond to shifts in public opinion, and candidates use polls to choose positions

nominations

To compete for a party’s nomination, a person first runs in a primary election. In an open primary any registered voter may vote regardless of party. In a closed primary only voters registered with that party may vote. Presidents are officially nominated by delegates at the national convention. A congressional candidate advances to the general election by winning the primary with the most votes.

how long is one term for a president

4 years, limited to two terms by the 22nd amendment

how often can you elect for a president

every 4 years

How long is one term for a house member

2 years

how often can you elect a house member

every 2 years, all seats

how long is one term for senators

6 years

how often can you elect for a senator

every 2 years, one-third of seats

how long is one term for congress overall

no term limits

how often can you vote for congress

N/A

general election rules

A presidential candidate must win 270 of the 538 Electoral College votes. House and Senate members are elected by popular vote, not by the Electoral College..

who votes and why?

-primary voters tend to be stronger partisans than general election voters

-the largest predictor of voter choice is ideology or party affiliation

-the president’s popularity, the economy, and candidates’ previous actions also affect vote choice

-US turnout in national elections tends to be lower than in other developed democracies

-a mandate is the sense of authority winners feel to act on specific policies, based on their election win.

campaign money

A Political Action Committee (PAC) is a committee formed to raise and spend money to influence politics and campaigns, often through negative issue ads. Super PACs may make unlimited expenditures to influence elections, but they may not coordinate directly with candidates.

who is the party in the electorate

ordinary citizens who identify with the party and support its candidates with votes and contributions

who is the party organization

professionals who hold the official party positions

who is the party in government

elected and appointed officials who represent the party

Duverger’s law

single-member district systems with plurality winners tend to produce two-party systems

barriers to third parties

ballot access rules, the broad platforms of the democratic and republican parties, and gerrymandering all limit other parties, even when polls show people want more choices

reapportionment

adjusting the number of house seats among the states to reflect population shifts, done after each census

redistricting

drawing new district lines after the census

gerrymandering

redistricting to benefit one political interest at the expense of another, often by cracking (splitting) or packing (concentrating) the other side’s voters.

party vs interest groups

-only parties nominate candidates for office,

-interest groups try to influence policy and may support candidates, but they do not put their own names on the ballot

why do interest groups form

to stand in solidarity with people who share policy goals

to protect disturbed interests, and

to solve collective action problems.

lobbyist

a person who represents an organization before government to influence policy.

legislator ratings

scoring a legislator by the percentage of times they vote favorably on issues the group cares about.

tactics in policy formation

providing research to legislators and bureaucrats, and lobbying

courts

groups file an amicus curiae (“friend of the court”) brief to present their analysis of a case. They do not meet privately with judges.

targets

standing committees, budget committees, and conference committees get heavy attention. Non-policy administrative functions are the least likely target

regulations

recent reforms focus on restricting lobbyists’ gifts and contacts with members of congress, rather than loosening limits

when did modern polling develop

1930's by George Gallup

what is the solid national poll size

about 1,000 respondents

what is the acceptable margin of error

3% to 5%

what is the most accurate poll

exit poll

what is the most social desirability in polls

bradley effect

frontrunner gets a boost

bandwagon effect

what type of poll was meant to persuade, not measure

push poll

the 22nd amendment says that a president can only serve how many terms

only 2 terms

for the electoral college voters to win you need

270 to 538

who can vote in an open primary

any registered voter

who can vote in a closed primary

only registered members of that party

who officially nominates the president

delegates at the national convention

who advances in a congressional race

winner of the primary

what is the largest predictor of vote choice

ideology or party affiliation

primary voters vs. general election voters

primary are stronger partisans

US turnout vs. other developed democracies

US turnout is lower

super PACs

-unlimited spending

-no coordination with candidates

single-member districts

tend toward two-party systems

adjusting house seats by population

reappointment

adjusting house seats by population

reapportionment

drawing new district lines

redistricting

drawing lines for partisans advantage

gerrymandering

brief presented to a court by a group

amicus curiae

person who represents an organization before government

lobbyist

what changes during reapportionment

the number of house seats each state gets

who or what is affect during reapportionment

states, after the Census

what changes during redistricting

the district lines inside a state

who or what is affected during redistricting

districts, after the Census

what changes during gerrymandering

redistricting done for partisan advantage

who or what is affected by gerrymandering

one party or group gains at another’s expense

opens vs. closed primary

-open means any registered voter may take part

-closed means you must be registered with that party

-the question often says “must be registered with one of the two mainparties,” which signals closed

party vs. interest group

-both seek influence and both can raise money, but only parties nominate candidates

PAC vs. Super PAC

-traditional PACs face contribution limits

-super PACs may spend without limit but may not coordinate with the candidate’s campaign

A radio station asks listeners to call in and vote on a ballot measure. This sample is best describes as:

a. random

b. self-selected and unscientific

c. an exit poll

d. a push poll

B) self-selected and unscientific

A survey asks, “Do you support the senator’s reckless plan to raise your taxes?” The main problem is:

a. sample size

b. margin of error

c. non-neutral question wording

d. the bandwagon effect

C) non-neutral question wording

Pre-election polls showed a candidate well ahead, but he received far fewer votes than predicted because some respondents did not want to admit they would vote against him. This is the:

a. bandwagon effect

b. Bradley effect

c. push poll effect

d. mandate

B) Bradley effect

A state lets any registered voter choose a party’s ballot on primary day. This is a(n):

a. closed primary

b. caucus

c. open primary

d. general election

C) Open primary

how many electoral college voters must be a presidential candidate win?

a. 218

b. 270

c. 435

d. 538

b) 270

which statement about congress is true?

a. Senators serve 4-year terms

b. House members face a two-term limit

c. One-third of the Senate is up for election every two years

d. The entire Senate is elected every six years

C) One-third of the Senate is up for election every two years

Which is the best predictor of how a person votes?

a. region

b. religion

c. party affiliation or ideology

d. primary vote share

C) party affiliation or ideology

After a landslide win, a president claims the voters want a specific policy agenda. This claim

is a:

a. mandate

b. veto

c. filibuster

d. gerrymander

A) Mandate

Which of the following may spend unlimited money to influence elections but may not

coordinate with a candidate?

a. a party committee

b. a Super PAC

c. a lobbyist

d. a candidate committee

B. A Super PAC

The people who hold official positions in the party and run its day-to-day operations are the:

a. party in the electorate

b. party in government

c. party organization

d. caucus

C) party organization

Single-member district systems with plurality rules tend to produce:

a. one-party rule

b. two-party systems

c. multiparty systems

d. no stable pattern

B) two-party systems

After the Census, a state gains two House seats. This is an example of:

a. reapportionment

b. redistricting

c. gerrymandering

d. ticket splitting

A) reapportionment

A legislature draws a district with an odd shape to give its own party an advantage. This is:

a. reapportionment

b. redistricting without bias

c. gerrymandering

d. a mandate

C) gerrymandering

A group tracks how often each member of Congress votes its way and publishes a

percentage. This is:

a. a legislator rating

b. a push poll

c. an amicus brief

d. a mandate

A) a legislator rating

An interest group wants to influence a pending Supreme Court case. Which is an appropriate

tactic?

a. privately meeting the justices

b. filing an amicus curiae brief

c. nominating a justice

d. voting in the case

B) filing an amicus curiae brief

What is the key difference between a party and an interest group?

a. only interest groups raise money

b. only parties nominate candidates

c. only interest groups can run ads

d. only parties lobby

B) only parties nominate candidates