Politics Unit 3 - AOS 2 - Russia-Ukraine conflict

background knowledge on conflict

commenced on the 24th of February 2022

first UNSC meeting on the issue was an emergency meeting on the day the crisis commenced

Antonio Guterres to president Putin - “give peace a chance”

current overall stats on crisis

has killed over 1 million people as of Sep 2026

russia now occupies roughly 20% of ukrainian territory

March 2nd, 2026 - 141 out of 191 UN member states condemn Russias actions

putin sent an estimated 200,000 soldiers on the day of the invasion

short term causes of conflict

Russian nationalism and culture

NATO expansion closes to Russian borders

Economic interests

Russian nationalism and culture

Putin - “russians and Ukrainians [are] one people - a single whole.”

around 34% of Ukrainians speak Russian, many as a 1st language

(many consider themselves to be culturally Russian)

Ukrainian Russian speakers live in the separatist regions of Donbas and Luhansk, 2022 speech putin claimed he was preventing a “genocide” of Russian speakers in this region

NATO expansion and security concerns

32 member states of NATO, Finland joined 2023, Sweden joined 2024

Putin, 2022 - “further expansion of NATO closer to Russian borders [being]… unacceptable to us.”

Ukraine applied for NATO membership in September 2022

February 7 2019, Ukrainian amendment to constitution was passed outlining the acquisition of NATO and EU membership as a strategic goal for their nation

Economic interests

Claims to have nearly $15T in minerals

Europe’s largest reserves in Lithium, Uranium and Titanium

data from ukrainian geologic survey - Ukraine possesses 5% of the worlds mineral resources, including 23/50 of the materials deemed critical by the US government

USA perspective Biden

perspectives - Cosmopolitan approach, wishes to protect democratic values in Ukraine

USA interests Biden

Interests - strengthen NATO, Counter Russian influence

USA responses Biden

military aid to Ukraine in form of weapons, ammunition, training

sanctioning of Russian banks, oligarchs and industries

As of March, 2025, US has provided $128 B in aid to Ukraine

USA perspective Trump

Realist approach, “US first” approach to foreign policy

USA interests trump

access to vital minerals in Ukraine

national fiscal efficiency

less value of global democratic values

more transactional

US responses Trump

March 3, 2025, White House officials “We are pausing and reviewing our aid to ensure it is contributing to a solution”

2025 - European military aid rose by 67% above the annual average between 2022 and 2024. However, total military aid overall was still down 13% due to the US’s complete withdrawal

DPRK perspectives

Realist approach

Anti-western stance

strategically aligned with russia (to counter international sanctions)

DPRK interests

military and economic security from russia

diplomatic support from russia in international forums

DPRK responses

2026 - figures suggest DPRK deployed approximately 22, 000 soldiers to support Russian forces in ukraine

SK think tank estimates DPRK has earned as much as $14.4 B by providing military support to russia in a two year span

November, 2024, Kim Jong Un - “the DPRK… will invariably support the policy [of russia] to defend its sovereignty and territorial integrity from the imperialists moves for hegemony.”

Australia perspectives

NOT cosmopolitan - Western ideology - backs Ukraines right to sovereignty and a democratic government

Commitment to international law

Australia interests

strengthening alliances with NATO and the EU by supporting Ukraine

Expanding trade - enhancing economic relations with Ukraine

Australia responses

Feb, 2023, Albo - “We are proud to stand with Ukraine as it defends its people, its territory and its sovereignty”

as of March 2026, aus provided over $1.7 B in support to Ukraine including military tech, ammunition and training

imposed a total of more than 1400 sanctions in response to Russia’s full scale invasion of Ukraine

ICC background knowledge

125 member states, created following ratification of Rome Statute

Ukraine is most recent to join on Jan 2nd of 2025

ICC perspectives

eliminate atrocity crimes

ICC interests

uphold international law

ICC responses

wish to pursue, arrest and trial perpetrators

17th March, 2023, ICC issued an arrest warrant on Putin for “overseeing the abduction of Ukrainian children”

Putin was forced to virtually attend a recent BRICs summit in SA in August of 2023 as South Africa would be forced to arrest putin if he set foot in their territory as a ICC member state

ICC and Putin background

2000 - Russia signed rome statute

2016, ICC labelled Russia’s annexation of Crimea “an occupation”

in response russia announced its withdrawal as a non-ratifying state

EU overall

union established by the Maastricht Treaty

27 member states

EU perspectives

supporting multilateralism and international law

EU interests

stability and security of the region

EU responses

April 2026 - Granted a 90 Billion euro loan to Ukraine following the Hungary election where previous Viktor Orban was defeated after continuously vetoed the loan

efforts to fast track EU membership

implemented a training program to ukrainian soldiers

Amnesty international

active in over 150 states

10 million members/donors

has accused BOTH Russia and Ukraine

Amnesty International perspectives

unbiased global justice

an advocate for cosmopolitanism

Amnesty International interests

human rights advocacy

Amnesty International responses

released reports + government pressure

accused:

Russia of indiscriminate attacks, failure to protect civilians, treatment of war prisoners, use of cluster munitions

Ukraine with use of cluster munitions and rationing troops in residential areas

ICJ

highest court of the UN

only court that settles disputes between states

APH, 2022 “over 40 states issued a joint statement in support of Ukraine’s case”

Ukraine filed an application to begin proceedings with Russia just 2 days after invasion

Convention on the prevention and punishment of the Crime of Genocide

1948

153 state parties as signatures including russia and ukraine

article 1 - parties agree that genocide is a crime under international law

article 2 - genocide is defined as any of the outlined acts in the convention in intent to destroy a certain group

Gen con + ICJ timeline

2022 - russia justified invasion by claiming necessary to prevent a genocide of Russians in eastern ukraine citing gen con

preliminary hearings - ukraine argued no threat of genocide, and regardless, the gen con does not permit the invasion of states in order to prevent a genocide

provisional rulings - ICJ ordered russia to “immediately suspend the military operations that it commenced on the 24th of February 2022 in the territory of ukraine, russia ignored

2024 - ICJ upheld that regardless of whether a genocide was or was not occurring in Ukraine, the use of force in prevention of it was beyond the scope the gen con and therefore the ICJ held no dominion upon this claim

they did not drop the case but instead shifted focus to finding any “credible evidence” that a genocide was occurring in ukraine

Diplomacy Zelenskyy and Trump timeline

Feb 28, 2025 - the two clash at oval office

March 3 - US aid to Ukraine is paused

April 26 - they discuss at the popes funeral at vatican

May 1 - minerals deal is signed establishing a new joint reconstruction fund financed by new mineral oil and gas projects in ukraine

Zelenskyy quotes on meeting at Vatican

Trumps response was “very strong” and the “best” discussion they had had

Trump quotes on vatican

in response to Zelenskyy outlining the number of necessary air defence systems - “they will work on it” but noted “these things are not free”

Black Sea Grain initiative

negotiated in July 2022 between turkey, ukraine the UN and Russia to allow a safe and uninterrupted maritime passage of ukrainian grain and food stuff as to not cause a global depletion

over 12 months, allowed for safe transport of 33 million metric tonnes of grain and foodstuff from ukraine to 45 countries

UN chief, June 2023 - FAO food price index had fallen by over 23% from its record high in March 2022

July 18 - russia did not agree to renewal of the initiative and revoked security guarantees

Challenges to resolving conflict

Declining global interest

Russia’s territorial demands

failure of diplomacy

declining global interest

public interest has shifted to other crises, aid fatigue and economic pressures

2024 - UN funding dropped from $2.63 to 1.75 Billion

number of worldwide publications relating to russia ukraine war dropped by over 77% in 2022 to 2024

Russias territorial demands

September 30, 2022 - Putin announced annexation of Donetsk, Luhansk, Kherson and Zaporizhzhia, following referendums widely condemned as illegal and fraudulent

Feb 2025 - Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov says status of 5 Ukrainian region it claimed is “non-negotiable”

Failure of diplomacy

diametrically opposed

mutual distrust and uncompromising positions

May 2025 - US withdrawal from mediation of peace talks between the two following Putins refusal to the proposed full ceasefire

Nov 2022, Zelenskyy 10-point peace plan at G20 summit

Feb 2023, China - 12-point peace plan for ceasefire and an end to unilateral sanctions to russia. Critized by western allies of ukraine for not acknowledging “Russia’s violation of Ukrainian sovereignty”

June, 2023, SA, Senegal and Zambia - 10-point peace plan calling for de-escalation and grain exports. Zelenskyy rejected on the basis that a ceasefire was necessary