Managing Volcanic Hazards - Owen Shepherd

Management Strategies

Gas release monitoring

Tiltmeter

Helicopter monitoring

Remote monitoring

Lava samples

Land zone

Preparedness

Planning

Evacuation

Ballooning bulging

Seismic monitoring

Monitoring types

Seismic

Gas release

Land height change (bulging)

Temperature

Magma release

Lahar sensor

What gas monitoring for?

Sulfur

Can volcanic events be prevented?

No.

But the consequences of a Volcanic Eruption can be prevented

Land zone management

Govern what can happen near volcano

Value of Land Zone Management

Physical separating between people and hazard

Incentivise urbanisation elsewhere

Cons of Land Zone Management

Hard to enforce

Hard to retrofit if already existing

Why land zone not good in LIC

No resource to enforce legislation on rapid development

4 approaches to management

Prevention, preparedness, mitigation, adaptation

Only 1 prevention

Land Zone Management

Preparedness examples

Evacuation plans

Monitoring

Analysis of past eruptions

Analyse?

Previous eruptions

May be similar and learn about specific volcano

Preparedness pros

Allows quick response

Indicate where and when

Preparedness cons

May be reactive only after the event do we know

Expensive

Needs lots of specialist and specialist equipment to implement properly

Mitigation examples

Lava channeling

Water and Dynamite

Effective warning systems

Lava channeling and Water and Dynamite Cons

Good as a last resort, but better to not be exposed at all

Financially extravagant

Single use management scheme

Good last resort

Warning Systems

Use the preparedness to communicate that even is happening

People can effectively respond and reduce their own vulnerability

Education and training of emergency services

Able to respond effectively and act accordingly for specific event

Specialist support

Pros: Valuable in immediate response

Cons : Expensive

Mitigation is only as effective as?

The preparedness that created the system

Why is mitigation risky?

People feel safe due to mitigation methods

Not enough is known

Caught out

Influences and optimistic bias in perception

Use this:

The risk involved with analysis based mitigation is that people are influenced towards a positive hazard perception, with high levels of optimistic bias.

Then get caught out and die.

False sense of Security

Adaptation typically at what scale?

Local community

adaptation value

People naturally move from something they consider a risk

Where is low level adaptation seen

High frequency Volcanoes

People are aware of danger if see lava loads

How can governments adapt

Repurpose the role of the volcano

Land Zoning!

What adaptation in DR Congo?

Change Volcano to grow Cash Crops

Fertile Soils maximised

Adaptation pros

Can function with no central control

Natural cycle

Cheap

Maximised opportunities

Adaptation cons

Perception based - low frequency = no action

No education = no action

No guarantee or science behind it

Best strategy?

Encompasses all four, with an infinite budget

Limits to Hazard Management Capacity?

Budget

Social conditions

Political stability

Resources

Perception

Frequency and magnitude of events

L’Aquila perception example

Evacuated 2x in 2009 with no EQ

Then didn’t evacuate the third time and 300+ died

Boy who cried wolf known as?

Alert Fatigue

People just ignore it