Chapter 10 Part 4: Deduction and Induction: A Closer Look

Inference to the Best Explanation

Occurs when we begin with one or more facts in need of explanation and then decide what to infer by thinking about what would best explain those facts

1. Begin with one or more facts in need of explanation

2. Critically examine as many initially plausible potential explanations as possible

3. Rank one explanation as the best explanation on the basis of the standard criteria

4. Conclude that the explanation ranked as the best explanation is probably true

Potential Explanation

An explanation that, if true, would explain the facts in question

Plausible Explanation

An explanation that is consistent with general background information

First Criteria for Best Explanation

Is internally consistent; contains no self-contradictory elements

Second Criteria for Best Explanation

Is externally consistent; does not contradict well-established background information, including already proven theories

Third Criteria for Best Explanation

Explains a wide range of relevant data (explanatory scope); the wider the range of relevant data explained, the greater is the explanation’s explanatory scope

Fourth Criteria for Best Explanation

Has explanatory power; leads us to expect the phenomenon being explained

Fifth Criteria for Best Explanation

Is testable; one explanation is better than a rival explanation if it passes more tests and passes tests that its rival does not pass; the more tests an explanation passes, generally the better the explanation

Sixth Criteria for Best Explanation

Satisfies considerations of simplicity; makes fewer assumptions, that is, refers to fewer explanatory entities, or kinds of explanatory entities, or invokes fewer explanatory principles

Seventh Criteria for Best Explanation

Is fruitful; leads to new discoveries and opens up new avenues of investigation

Eighth Criteria for Best Explanation

Coheres with, or fits in well with, already established facts; conserves existing knowledge

Principle of Simplicity

A potential explanation A is preferable to another explanation B if A explains the same range of data and is otherwise equal except that it makes reference to fewer entities or contains fewer explanatory principles or explanatory elements

Empirical Hypothesis

Makes a prediction that can in principle be observed or verified on the basis of sense experience
Step 1: We derive an observable prediction from the hypothesis by asking, “If the hypothesis is true, what can we expect to observe or detect in the world, using our physical senses?”

Step 2: We observe the world, looking to see if the prediction is found to be true

Step 3: If the prediction is found to be true, this is evidence in support of the hypothesis; evidence “confirms the hypothesis.” If the prediction is not found, this is evidence against the hypothesis; evidence “disconfirms the hypothesis.”

Conservative Hypothesis

Coheres well with existing knowledge

Coherence

When there are mutual explanatory relations between a statement and a body of information

Cogent Argument

When an inductive argument is strong, and, in addition, has all true premises