Lesson 4: Simulation Launch and Bureaucratic Politics

PWAD250 Midterm Review

Essence of Decision (1971)

Graham Allison's book (later with Philip Zelikow) explaining US and Soviet decisions in the Cuban Missile Crisis

Allison's core argument

Rational choice alone can't explain the Cuban Missile Crisis; you must add organizational and bureaucratic politics

Lesson 4's central question

How do states make policy? (shifting from explaining state behavior)

Model I

Rational actor: policy is made by a unitary, rational decision maker choosing what maximizes value for the state

Model II

Organizational politics: policy is an organizational output; organizations constrain policy choice

Model II logic

Large organizations need coordination, which is formalized into standard operating procedures; routines make change hard, so alternatives get ignored

Model III

Bureaucratic politics: policy is the product of bargaining among key players

Model III logic

Department heads push what benefits their departments, competing and colluding; policy reflects who has leverage at that moment

"Where you stand depends on where you sit"

Model III (bureaucratic politics): officials' positions reflect their agency's interests

Model II vs. Model III

Model II = organizational routines limit options. Model III = people bargaining for their agencies' interests

Model III Cuban Missile Crisis example

Joint Chiefs wanted air strikes, State wanted diplomacy; the naval quarantine was a compromise reached in the ExComm

Model II Cuban Missile Crisis example

The Navy's standard blockade procedures nearly provoked a confrontation with Soviet submarines

Challenge to Allison #1

Confusion between Model II and Model III

Challenge to Allison #2

Model III is a mess of multiple different theories

Challenge to Allison #3

Evidence does not fully support his claim

Challenge to Allison #4

Unclear what determines bargaining power

Challenge to Allison #5

Undervalues the power of the President

Challenge to Allison #6

Gives leaders an excuse for bad policy

Welch (1992) central argument

Allison's alternatives haven't produced strong general propositions; don't abandon the rational actor model, which held up well even in Allison's own case

Why Welch defends Model I

It is well developed, clear, parsimonious, and easy to operationalize

Post-Allison research: civilian vs. military preferences

Chaudoin et al. (2010); Scholten and Zhirkov (2025)

Post-Allison research: bureaucracy as barrier to change

Porter (2018); Walt (2018)

Post-Allison research: elite bargaining and war

Saunders (2024)

Post-Allison research: elite information sharing in war

Jost (2024)

Can bureaucratic politics be an essay theory?

No; your professor banned it. Use it for IDs and short answer only