Politics Unit 3 - AOS 1 - WMDs

global nuclear warhead stockpiles as of 2026

12187 warheads worldwide

russia 5459

US 5277

China 600

DPRK 50

nuclear states:

US, Russia, China, DPRK, France, UK, Israel, India, Pakistan

wdms defined as

to be indiscriminate

produce in a single moment an enormous destructive effect

deliver nuclear explosive devices or chemical, biological or toxin agents

short term causes

Militarisation and Armed conflicts

Militarisation evidence

2024- world spending increased for 10th successive year and exceeded $2.7 T USD

2024- rose in all European countries except Malta by 17%

Asia + Oceania military expenditure rose for 10th successive year, China accounted for approximately half of region total

Armed conflict evidence

May 2024- US state department accused Russia of using Chloropicrin on Ukrainian soldiers “as a method of warfare”, in violation of Chemical Weapons Convention

Putin, Sep 2022- “When territorial integrity… is threatened, we will use all the means at our disposal to protect Russia and our people”

Red Cross, 2025- more than 130 armed conflicts are currently raging around the world

NPT basic facts

-1968

-191 UN member states, largest disarmament agreement in world

-India, Pakistan and South Sudan are no signatories, +DPRK left in 2003

Obligations of NPT

Pillar 1 - nuclear states pledge not to assist others in acquiring nuclear weapons, non nuclear states pledge not to acquire

Pillar 2 - all parties of not will engage and pursue negotiations to bring about total nuclear disarmament

Pillar 3 - all states have right to develop nuclear technology but only for peaceful purposes

positives of NPT

prior to NPT, it was predicted that there would be 20-25 nuclear states today. There is only 9

CSIS - “no country has successfully been able to produce nuclear weapons while subject to the npt and its safeguards”

facilitates the exchange of info and reduces uncertainty

failures of NPT

DPRK left in 2003 and commencing 6 nuclear test since 2006

not does not possess any stipulated enforcement mechanisms, relies on agency of external bodies such as the IAEA or UNSC

New START basic facts

created 2011 bilateral treaty between russia and US

constrained states to limit of 1550 deployed strategic warheads each

New START expiration

February 5 2026, last remaining bilateral treaty

putin proposal

Sep 2025 putin proposed a mutual observance of new start limits one year after lapse, trump is yet to provide a formal response

“if it expires, it expires”

New start benefits

constrains 90% of global nuclear stockpiles

since feb 2018 both states have been below new start limit, continued despite expiration

UNODA background

supports multilateral efforts to achieve general and complete disarmament

utilises dialogue, transparency and confidence building on military matters

UNODA quotes

website- “The dangers from such weapons arise from their very existence… disarmament is the best protection.” “achieving this goal has been a tremendously difficult challenge”

UN secretary general quote

Antonia Guterres, Sep 2024 - “Not since the worst days of the Cold War has the spectre of nuclear weapons cast such as dark shadow.”

UNSC sanctions

has passed 9 major sanctions on DPRK since 2006 targeting ICBM and nuclear programs

most recent 2017 Sep and Dec, restricting crude oil and refined petroleum imports, and restricted overseas North Korean labourers

however Kim Jung Un may perceive sanctions as threat to regime survival encouraging him to take further belligerent action to ensure security

IAEA basic facts

IGO with 181 members across 35 states

conducts inspections of nuclear facilities to ensure compliance with NPT

relays concerns to UNSC or UNGA

positives of IAEA

2024 - applied safeguards for 190 states with safeguard agreements in force

2024 - performed over 3000 in - field verification activities in over 1300 nuclear facilities across the world

failures of IAEA

Nov 2025 - IAEA reported Iran had expanded uranium enrichment and failed to cooperate with nulcear inspections

stated this as a matter of “serious concern”

Oct 2025 - Iran FA deemed cooperation with IAEA was “no longer relevant”

DPRK quote Kim

Kim Jong Un, 2022 - “The fundamental mission of our nuclear forces is to deter a war”

DPRK quote 2

response to US 2017 airstrike on Syrian air base, DPRK state media declared Pyongyang will “Bolster up in every way our capability for self-defence to cope with the united-states’ evermore reckless moves for a war”

USA interests

nuclear parity with russia

strongly opposes new states acquiring WMDs, deter by diplomatic and military means

positives of US response

12 January 2022 - US imposed sanctions on 5 DPRK officials accused for procuring goods for WMD programs

US defence secretary, 2017 - threatened a “massive military response” to the DPRK after 6th nuclear test"

negatives of US response

expiration of New START

Trumps social media post, Oct 2025 - “because of other countries testing programs, I have instructed the Department of War to start testing our nuclear weapons on an equal basis.”

Red Cross positives of response

22nd Jan, 2026 - Red Cross posted formal declaration titles “The Elimination of Nuclear Weapons position statement”

• calls for “prohibition and elimination of nuclear weapons

• Recommendation 2 pressures Australian government to “engage in dialogue with nuclear weapon states … (to) diminish the role and significance of nuclear weapons”

Red Cross failures of response

limited to humanitarian advocacy

nuclear states have signified priority for possession of weapons as a deterrent over disarment, e.g:

March 2025, UK defence secretary John Healy - “Our nuclear deterrent is there as a deterrent. It is the ultimate guarantor..”

Challenges to resolving issue of WMDs

Armed conflict

21st century arms race

Shortcoming of international law

Armed conflicts challenge

increases justification for wmd use and proliferation for security guarantees'

US - Iran conflict, Feb 2025 - Iran informed IAEA that normal safeguards were “legally untenable and morally impractical” due to “acts of aggression”

US and Israel commenced military strikes on Iran of the 28th of February 2026

21st century arms race challenge

“new arms race” is driven by geopolitical tension

as of 2025, all 9 nuclear states are modernising their arsenals as evidenced by 2.7 T global military spending 2024

trump “equal basis”

US increase nuclear spending by 10.3% in 2024

shortcoming of int law challenge

treaties rely on state cooperation and lack strong enforcement mechanisms'

Political stability

Mutually Assured Destruction (MAD) - weak as based on tensions and cause some instability like US - Iran conflict

no new recorded nuclear states in last two decades

NPT strength + popularity

Political change

revival of nuclear testing - trump, DPRK

collapse of New Start

sparking of armed conflicts

global interconnectedness

+The UN - enforcement of NPT and IAEA, fosters global discussions on how to effectively eliminate the threats of WMD

-Conflict escalation beyond borders