Bargaining Theory, Civil War, and Foreign Policy

hat is the bargaining model of war?

A theory explaining why costly wars occur when states fail to reach a negotiated settlement.

Who is a leading scholar of bargaining theory?

James Fearon (1995).

What is bargaining?

The process of reaching a mutual agreement.

What is crisis bargaining?

Bargaining in which at least one state threatens military force.

What is coercive diplomacy?

Using threats to advance demands in bargaining.

Why is war puzzling to rationalists?

War is costly to both sides, so a negotiated settlement could be better.

What is PA?

The probability that State A wins.

What is 1 − PA?

The probability that State B wins.

What does CA represent?

State A's cost of fighting.

What does CB represent?

State B's cost of fighting.

What is State A's expected payoff from war?

PA − CA.

What is State B's expected payoff from war?

1 − PA − CB.

What is the bargaining range?

The range of settlements both sides prefer to fighting; from PA − CA to PA + CB.

What are the three main causes of bargaining failure?

Private/incomplete information, issue indivisibility, and commitment problems.

What is resolve?

A state's willingness to fight and endure costs.

What is bounded rationality?

Decision-making limited by information, mental capacity, and time.

Why might states hide information?

To gain concessions, avoid looking like an aggressor, or gain military surprise.

What is issue indivisibility?

When the disputed issue cannot easily be divided or compromised over.

Why does Fearon question issue indivisibility as a cause of war?

States can use payments, issue linkage, or intermediate bargains.

What is a commitment problem?

When a state cannot credibly promise to honor an agreement later.

What is preemptive war?

War driven by a first-strike advantage.

What is preventive war?

A declining power attacks a rising power because it fears a future power shift.

What is an ex-ante bargain?

A pre-war settlement that avoids the costs of fighting.

What is ex-post?

After the war, when the costs of fighting have been incurred.

What is an intrastate conflict?

Sustained military conflict between politically organized groups within a country.

How does the presentation define civil war?

Armed conflict among organized actors within a state causing at least 1,000 battle deaths.

What is intercommunal war?

Large-scale organized violence involving different religious communities.

What is internationalized intrastate conflict?

Foreign states provide troops, equipment, or other support to groups in a domestic conflict.

What is greed as a cause of civil war?

A group seeks greater control of a country's economic resources.

What is grievance as a cause of civil war?

Dissatisfaction caused by discrimination or harmful government policies.

What is separatism?

Seeking an independent state for a territory.

What is irredentism?

Seeking to move a region from one state to another based on shared ethnic or religious ties.

What are three types of demands in intrastate conflict?

Separate from the state, change government policies, or replace the regime.

What are country-level risk factors for rebellion?

Political institutions, wealth and poverty, and population size.

How can foreign states influence civil wars?

By supporting rebels for shared interests or to weaken an opposing government.

What is a proxy war?

Opposing states support different sides of a conflict.

How can incomplete information contribute to civil war?

Governments and rebels misjudge each other's capabilities or resolve.

How can disarmament create a commitment problem?

Rebels become vulnerable if they give up their weapons before guarantees are credible.

How can territory become indivisible?

Competing sides treat control of the whole territory as non-negotiable.

What is insurgency?

A strategy of smaller units using hit-and-run attacks to impose costs and seek concessions.

What is guerrilla warfare?

A tactic involving raids or hit-and-run attacks on military or government targets.

What is counterinsurgency?

Government efforts to provide security and support to civilians to reduce rebel recruitment.

What is foreign policy?

Government choices in dealing with other governments or international non-state actors.

What is a foreign policy interest?

A goal a leader values enough to accept costs to achieve.

What is a foreign policy strategy?

A choice of actions to advance or defend national interests.

What are foreign policy outcomes?

Objectives leaders seek to achieve.

What are policy instruments?

Specific tools used to achieve foreign policy objectives.

What are the two broad kinds of policy instruments?

Persuasive and coercive.

What is diplomacy?

Government representatives negotiate to resolve shared issues.

What is a foreign policy incentive?

A benefit offered if another state behaves as desired.

What are economic sanctions?

Restrictions on normal trade, investment, or financial relationships.

Name two forms of economic sanctions.

Tariffs or quotas; refusing purchases or freezing assets also qualify.

What is propaganda?

Selective information or misinformation used to advance a state's interests.

What are cyber operations?

Using or manipulating information and digital systems to advance foreign policy interests.

What is coercive diplomacy compared with full warfare?

Threats or limited coercive actions that stop short of full-scale war.

What is covert foreign policy action?

An action carried out secretly or hidden from the target government.

What is the carrots-and-stick approach?

Combining rewards and punishments to influence behavior.

What are the three levels of foreign policy sources?

Individual, state, and international.

What are individual-level sources?

Leader personality, socialization, experiences, genetics, and psychology.

How do mental shortcuts affect foreign policy?

Leaders may rely on shortcuts instead of fully analyzing alternatives.

What are state-level government sources?

Political dynamics between executives, legislators, and other government actors.

How do democracies often differ from nondemocracies in foreign policy?

Decision-making is generally less centralized and may require legislative consent.

How does public opinion affect foreign policy?

Elections and public preferences can pressure leaders to change policies.

What is issue framing?

How media or other actors present an issue to shape how it is understood.

How do interest groups influence foreign policy?

Lobbying, campaign financing, reports, advertising, letters, and publicity.

What is lobbying?

Meeting or speaking with officials to influence policy.

How does geography affect foreign policy?

Location, borders, resources, and neighboring states shape choices.

What are common priorities of developed countries in the slides?

Maintaining the status quo, economic diplomacy, technology, security, and environmental protection.

What are common priorities of developing countries in the slides?

Attracting investment and aid, debt relief, favorable trade, and limiting foreign interference.

How do relative national capabilities affect foreign policy?

Greater capabilities can increase influence, deterrence, and rule-setting power.

What is polarity?

The distribution of major power across the international system.

Name three drivers of foreign policy change.

Learning, leadership turnover, and regime change; shocks and shifts in power also matter.

What is the rational model of foreign policy?

A unitary state actor compares alternatives and chooses the best outcome at the lowest cost.

What is a unitary actor?

A state treated as a single decision-maker.

What is the organizational process model?

Decisions shaped by organizations' established routines and precedents.

What does SOP stand for?

Standard operating procedure.

Why can SOPs create inconsistent policy?

Different organizations follow different established procedures.

What is the bureaucratic politics model?

Policy results from bargaining among government officials with competing interests.

What matters most in the bureaucratic politics model?

The relative power of the bureaucratic actors involved.

What is the pluralist model?

Societal groups influence foreign policy through public opinion, media, and lobbying.

What is the constructivist approach to foreign policy?

Choices reflect leaders' interpretations of history, norms, values, and strategic culture.

What is strategic culture?

Shared historical experiences, norms, and values shaping strategic choices.

How did the slides contrast Canada and Australia over the 2003 Iraq War?

Canada emphasized peaceful dispute resolution; Australia emphasized alliance commitments.

What is balance of power?

A rough equilibrium of power that helps preserve peace.

What is hegemony?

Dominance of one state over others using economic, political, and military power.

What is internal balancing?

Building a state's own defenses and mobilizing its economy.

What is external balancing?

Forming security alliances with other states.

What is bandwagoning?

A smaller state aligns with a stronger state for protection.

What are international institutions?

Rules, norms, and standards that establish actors' rights and obligations.

What is a key limitation of international institutions?

Their rules can be difficult to enforce.

How can institutions encourage compliance?

Sanctions, coordinated pressure, and shared enforcement efforts.

Are pathways to peace mutually exclusive?

No. States can use several instruments together.

Do peacemaking instruments always work?

No. Their outcomes are not guaranteed.

How do the slides define terrorism?

Premeditated threats or violence against noncombatants by individuals or subnational groups to achieve political or social goals through wider intimidation.

What is the main purpose of terrorism?

To create fear of future attacks and pressure a wider audience.

Why might politically weak groups use terrorism?

They lack broad support or the strength to compel the state directly.

How does terrorism differ from insurgency in the slides?

Terrorism targets noncombatants; insurgency more commonly attacks military units.

How does incomplete information affect bargaining with terrorist groups?

Targets may not know a group's size, strength, or resolve.

What is a commitment problem in terrorism bargaining?

Uncertainty that either side, including separate cells, will honor an agreement.

How does issue indivisibility affect terrorism bargaining?

Extremist demands may be treated as impossible to divide or compromise.