Migration and development mid-term

Why people migrate

theory of migration:

1. individual: economic man, migrating for personal purposes to achieve full potential and opportunities

2. Structural: due to global push and pull factors, dual labor market

Dual labour market

When a country experiences economic growth and gets richer:

• Locals start to gain more skills and education and take up high-paid jobs and require more and more services

• Low-end jobs are not wanted by locals, but because of the high demand and availability, they attract migrant workers.

• Employers appreciate this cheap and readily available labour so they employ migrants often irregularly, cheaply and with unstable contracts

• This creates a gap between employment

Mechanism for migration (country’s development focus)

1. country experiences industrialisation through economic developments

2. leads to the construction of train tracks

3. increases mobility

4. increases migration

Europe’s failed fight against migration

Main focus of Europe:

• focus on tightening border controls and investing in manpower

• Migration is viewed as a threat to security, services and sovereignty

• It is marketed into an illegality industry and imposes fear, which forces people to want more security therefore more investments towards border control

Why are they failing

• Investments that go towards border security create more illegal pathways and more threat – the cyclical nature of creating risk to prevent risk

• Anti-migration is a global issue, and too many actors are involved – dispersed responsibility and no one to blame

• The supply of people is marked as an issue, not the demand increased by hungry employers and smugglers that make a business out of it

The main European faulty cycle of anti-migration (final summary)

1. Migration is marketed as a threat so that people support government investment into more security measures. This leads to more border controls but also more dangerous and unregulated pathways, with smugglers actually causing more harm and threats to migrants.

2. SO more control – more unregulated migrants that still need to pass through – more threat – more investments into control

The tragedy of the global commons (migration centric)

Restricting entrance to a country in one area leads to the creation of new pathways in another area. The issue is just passed on. Not one individual or a group is responsible.

How to solve the European flawed cycle of migration

Short-term goals: focus on humanitarian aid, more interstate collaboration, enable legal and safe pathways, and resolve the inequality: the rich have easy access, but the poor are coming in through dangerous pathways

Long-term goals: Less focus on the illegality and security industry, focus more on the opportunities of migration. No border control will help unless the reason why people are feeling their country is resolved.

Social costs of migration outweigh the gains of border control

neoclassical theory of migration

• assumes an immigrant is an economical man always searching for the best opportunity when net benefits outweigh net costs

• assesses the importance of normative decisions when dis/obeying the (immigration) law

normative factors affecting dis/obedience of laws

1. morality

2. legitimacy of authority

3. social norms

→ If any of these are deemed unjustified in migration laws in the eyes of migrants, they are more likely to break them.

Macro and Micro effects on unauthorised migration

Macro effects: household, community, society, national context

Micro effects: normative factors (morality, validity of authority, social norms), cost benefit analysis

Policies should consider XYZ when analysing the reasons for disobediance

1. economic opportunities and constrains

2. normative factors (morality, validity of authority, social factors) + ALSO normative VALUES - beliefs, origin, context

3. risk during journey

Causes and Consequences of Irregular Migration

Causes:

• focus on border security and safety industry, dual labour markets that create demand for workers but don’t ensure proper documentation, outdated census data (change in status, death, overstayers, refusal to speak)

Consequences

• inaccurate allocation of resources and data

For state: feeling of lost control, monetising fear to gain investments, fear

• irregular funding or access to public and social services, change in demographic profile, trust in government (both positive and negative)

For migrants: threat, death, hazard, danger, exploitation

Case study for migration

The great arrival of Italians to the USA – Ellis Island, 1890-1920

• Italians had extreme poverty, lack of security, food scarcity, opportunities, and high taxes back home

• all possible due to increased mobility

• 4 million Italians

• Greatly contributed to communities in the USA, reshaped food, music, labour and infrastructure sectors

Migration definition

It is a move involving a major change in one's daily activity space (DAS), away from their usual residence. Can be either internal or international.

Economic ways of studying migration

1. Macro level: How migration affects community and population composition

2. Micro level: How migration affects individuals and their choices

3. Maso level: how migration affects families and households

4. utility levels

5. cost benefit analysis

6. human capital

7. labour markets

Irregular migration definition

Entering a territory through irregular and undocumented channels, often without regularly administered documents or the following of set procedures.

How is irregular migration viewed

Receiving state: Illegality, unauthorised, law breaking

Migrants: temple run, necessity, lesser evil, negotiating the law

African migration

• mostly national due to limited mobility and the large size of the continent

• mostly curculatory - labour migration - relying on remittances

• Majority of African migrants have valid documents, and the majority of them aren’t escaping a political conflict situation

• issues with data, research, census and overall understanding of African migration flows due to lack of organisation in certain areas

• 20.8 million immigrants

• 86 per cent of migration is not conflict related

Reasons for move:

• economic incentives, opportunities, employment

• climate change, food scarcity, droughts

• war and conflict

Ravenstein’s laws of migration

a set of 19th-century empirical generalisations formulated by geographer Ernst Georg Ravenstein that describe predictable patterns in human movement

→ People move from low to high income areas; they move in short distances (distance decay model); they move in steps from village-town-city…

Lewi’s basic model

labour is transfered from underporductuve to productive urban areas

Major drivers of migration in afrcia (historical perspective)

Pre-colonial

• mostly search for resources and arable land

• mobility was camel-back

• search for economic opportunities

Colonial

• forces labour and slavery

• fleeing for liberation

• for education or religion

Postcolonial

• economic incentives, employment, opportunities and education

• climate change

• food security

• poverty

• safety

• State policies are slowing it down because they are worried for sovereignty and nationality

Implication of migration in Afrcia

• employment, urbanisation

• poverty reduction

• brain drain and gain

• policy and state upheaval

• lack of data and research

Zelinsky’s mobility transition

• applying migration to the DTM model

• Population went from static to mobile through modernisation

Statement 1: The transition from a sessile to a mobile community happens due to modernisation.

Statement 2: This happens alongside the demographic transition model.

Statement 3: the study proves that everyone goes through these stages irreversibly

Additional statement about phase 1: due to rigid social ties, lack of transportation, communication, technology and disposable income, everyone was basically only practising localised mobility

FLAWS:

• Ancestors were far from immobile → proof of influence of languages, cultures, and stories

  • They just aren’t considered a modern migrant due to UN definitions

• Zelinsky did not consider → seasonal, urban to rural, life cycle service, soldier, rural to rural migration

• MOVEMENT TO CITIES WAS PRESENT EVEN BEFORE INDUSTRIALISATION!! After it people just moved there and stayed there permanently

the geographic axiom

axiom – something accepted as truth without proof

• that migration can be measured, planned and is non-random

principle of least effort

Migrants choose their destination based on:

1. costs and returns

2. information + opportunities

3. constraints from existing social ties

Movement types

Migration: permanent movement that disrupts social ties

Circulation: non-permanent movement that is repetitive (students, workers)

mobility types

1. territorial

   1. movement through physical space

2. social

   1. movement through social classes

3. Intellectual

   1. Innovative technology allows for distance to be almost non important - it is the shrinking mile

Mobility and Modernity

Mobility has been strongly associated with modernity; one cannot be modern without being mobile. It has been marketed and promoted also in hopes of aiding sales for certain industries such as cars. Modernity and the future are highly reliant on mobility.

It has become a social representation: humans have created a shared identity of being highly mobile and having connections all over the world

reading history sideways

This is a skewed way of predicting trends with one singular trend trajectory. For example, imposing the developments predicted by the Demographic Transition Model, and expecting all countries in lower stages to reach the higher ones, as developed countries did ages ago.

Modifiable area unit

Measuring internal migration in countries with different regions

Country A has 2 and Country B has 10 regions – country B will have more border crossings and therefore more internal mobility events, even though Country A might be experiencing more movement.

• The same applies also to the shape and location of cities within states

Lucassen brothers

• revisited Zelinsky’s model of migration

• redefined and reclassified migration:

  • intercontinental, settlement, to cities, seasonal, labour

• fixed the idea that there was no mobility before industrialisation

FLAWS:

• The absolute migration graph only looks at absolute migration, which ignores the growth of population, alongside witch migration, which, of course, increased, but it was relatively the same when compared to the population

• They also ignored temporary migration

Bauman migration and identities

1. Identity is fluid and is the most maluable in young people

2. Bees were considered as very territorial and bound to their hives. Turns out they are highly migratory and let insiders in (metaphor for migrants and how humans were overly focused on outsiders vs insiders)

= they are social insects

History of migrations (Bauman)

Then: focus on sovereignty, territorial, national building, fortyfing

Now: every nation is a collection of diasporas, borders are permeable, and identities are fluid. MODERNITY + MOBILITY

3 phases of migration (Bauman)

1. phase 1 - massive forced migration, movement to empty lands, territorial, white man conquest, tripartite

2. phase 2 - collonizers return home and take natives back home with them and they have to assimilate, empire emigrates back, migrating towards the metropolis of the empire

3. phase 3 - collection of diasporas, identity is fluid, movement due to globalisation, modernity as mobility, movement due to resources and opportunities. Now migration is both directional and does not follow old imperial collonial routes

issue between security and freedom (bauman)

• the more freedom, the less security porivisons

• the more security provisions, the less freedom

Roots vs Anchor metaphor (Bauman)

Roots:

• if pulled out they die

• can only by grown in one place

Anchor:

• easier to pick up and dock elsewhere, can be at multiple places, diasporic approach

• born in country A, studying in country B, living in country C

Diaspora

• comes from the green “to spread out, scatter“

• a group of people leaving their home of origin and scattering elsewhere in the world

• mix of ethnicity, religions, practices, lifestyles

• eg. african, jewish, italian, irish

Planetary responsibility

need for interconnected globe, global interactions and not just actions for local benefits

Human atlas facts

Europe is aging, low birthrates, relying on immigration to keep the working people section of pyramid up

A country called europe

• the need to think of europe as a collection of regions not nation-states

• europeas don’t get misty eyed as Americans do about their country

• european values - plenatary responsibility

• less drawing of a line for insiders and outsiders

rethinking teh erasmus effect

• Does European identity and identifying with Europe change during the Erasmus exchange positively and does that provide a civic effect?

Results

• Yes, for the mobile group, both aspects of the moreno question have increased positively compared to the group that was immobile

• CIELING EFFECT: The effect is seen more visible for students who did not already identify strongly with europe

• It does have a civic effect → it does increase European identity as well as employability and human capital

Moreno questions

part of the Erasmus paper research that operationalises the eurpean identy (puts it into words)

"What does it MEAN to you to identify as European, and how does that differ from identifying just with your nationality?”

Cognitive mobilisation

Concept from the Erasmus question:

• the more a person is aware adn educated on what Europe and European identity means, the more likley they are to relate to it

• this is often linked to higher education levels

Transnational interaction

People who are more exposed to iternational interactions and are putting themselves into these situations are more likle to identify or feel more european

Lesvos case study

• during 2016 greek economic crisis, refugees from Syria, Sudan and other countries all flooded the greek island of Lesvos

• Locals provided big help

• Refugees fled from Their coutnry through turkey and then took dangerous boats to reach greece

Reason why refugees take dangerous journeys

They will risk one month of dangerous travel to save themselves from an eternity of futureless lives

Cause to increase irregular migration due to Rosling and Documentary

Booking a plane ticket is much cheaper than paying smugglers or taking illegal boats, but due to the EU directive 2001/51/EC:

1. If people without all documnets required board a plane, the airline is responsible dor paying their return costs

2. deos not apply to refgees!! (often forgotten)

= it’s against european laws not to offer a safe environment for refugees

Migration and Development facts from OECD

unmanagable migration happens when massive amount of mirgants flood one area - it would be much more doable if they spread out

• solving this pressure however is always multifaceted —> kids need schools, parents need jobs, they need to learn the language and this concernes both the private and public sector

European identity

Cognitive

• how an individual identifies AS EUROPEAN

Affective

• the extent to which eurpeans identify WITH EUROPE

• how do they identify with the values it represnts and the idea of it

Migration stats

Asian country with the highest number of immigrants → Singapore

European country with the highest number of immigrants → Germany

For every 1 percent growth in population through migration, there is 1.25-1.50 percent growth in GDP

Migration facts and how they can help

1. MIGRANTS HAVE TO TAKE THESE LOW PAID JOBS BECAUSE THEY ARE AVAIALBLE AND THE GREEN CARD PROCESS IS LONG. THEY MIGHT EVEN BE OVEREDUCATED BUT 3D MIGHT PAY BETTER THAN HOME COUNTRY BETTER JOBS!!!!

2. Migrants take jobs: False, as country grows and locals get richer, more jobs need doing. PEOPLE CREATE JOBS FOR PEOPLE

3. 3D employement → dirty, dangeruoys, difficult → due to market polarisation and dual labour market - immigrants or low educated workers take these jobs nobody else wants to do

   1. during and economic crisis countries try to get rid of migrants to save money, but migrants can actually be shock absorbers by working 3d jobs

4. They can help the economy grow by supporting start ups and smaller companies that can only afford cheap labour at the start

5. allow loclas to take more jobs becaus etehy take care of their kids and errands

6. increase in labour force does NOT change wages for locals

7. Do immigrants take up more aid than they pay in taxed

   1. undocumented - obvi not

   2. uk and aus - no they contribute more in taxed

   3. USA - yes but the balance is equal after 20 years

Drawbridge effect

Closing the borders now after immigration became a burden - only get what we want selfishely

Rodriguez Pose

• DOes high fractionalisation lead to long term benefits for the state economy - yes

Polarisation: low - the different groups MINGLE and a MELTING POT happens, high - the different groups stay seperate (BAAAAD)

Fractionalisation: having lots of different nationalities and origins in one area

Policy affects:
- focusing on mainting a homogenour population cna actualy close doors to economic growth and development

• countries in the USA now that experiences the great arrival and migration between civil war and 1920 - actually are still one of the weathiest countries

selection bias in migration

• surveys that collect data on migration are often skewed or bias

• those that answer are usually the ones hwo had a semi to positive experience with migration

• if you are dissatisfied you are less likley to talk about it more or anwer a survey

• = sampling bias

Draghi report

• worries about the gap of development and innovation between Europe and Asia

• How to solve this:

  • attract talent, climate change and renewable energy specialists, improve critical sectors, leverage migration, align education with industry needs, build upon domestic skills

Wennink report (NL focused)

response appleid to netherlands based on Draghi

• Netherlands is declining in productivity, need to increase annual GDP growth by 2 percent to sustain public services

• expand on the main domestic sectors (biotech, security, technology, resiliance), attract talent, make use of moderate migration, allow for faster permiting of rules

Moderate growth stategy 250 nl

• netherlands is ageing, the dependancy ratio is growing, there is housing pressure and pressure on social services

• solution → moderate migration growth and impove the service sector into a rigid one

Summary of policies

Issues: indeficiency, pressure on social services, productivity

Solve: attract talent, build on existing strenghts and allow for moderate migration

Roy paper and model

→ was the wage distribution a random historical accident? no

depends on:

1. skill

2. skill distribution amongst workers

3. cocnentration of skills and output

Concentration

The higher the concentration the less difference will a higher skill make in output and therefore wages.

Countries with low concentration, like the US, promote a low concentration which means that the more skilled you are, the more you can make, but also the less you are skilled, the less you make and these countries often have LOW SOCIAL SECURITY so no one will take care of you

• fishing has low concentration - the harder the job, the more skill you need to be good at it

• hunting is high concentration (smushed graph) - no matter your skill you are likely to get the same output because the job is easy, not hard to get a good output

Places with low concentration will attract more SKILLED workers because there they can grow and get higher wages

Correlation between jobs

positive correlation → you are good at fishing AND hunting

negative correlation → you are only good at fishing OR hunting NOT BOTH

This affects reasons for migration = if a worker is skilled and goes to a country with low concentration, their move can pay of and they have opportunities for growth. if they are a low skilled worker, and the contry has low concentration they might even get paid worse or the same

what can change in demand do to a job

If fish become more desired because the demand goes up and the correlation is positive, more bad hinters will try to work in fisheries, this will rid hunters of inneficient workers but also lower the efficiency of fishing

how does adding technology to a job affect it’s standing

if adding a high tech that requires more skill into hunting for example, the job will be less concentrated because now it reuires more skill, and more skill will get you better position - you are rare

The migration model by Burjas

workers are mobile between countries and their move depends on concentration and correlation between output and skills in home and destination country

Migration and job match

does migration actually lead to higher wages - no it depends on what skills the migrant has and what they make of their situation

• migration isn’t always based on economical man type thing - sometimes you have to mvoe because no jobs are left for you but social connections would have actually gotten you better options in your original location

Regression analysis used:

• outcome variables: does it pay off - position, benefits, wage

• Bacround variables: skills, age, gender, did you move, study

• Horizontal match: are you working in your chosen field like in uni

• Vertical match: are you at a job that matches a univerity standard

endogenous growth theory

Growth comes from internal factors like education, talent, skill, and human capital, innovation

life cycle effects on contribution to the economy

as one gets older their contribution through taxes, working and such gets higher, and then after pension it gets lower

Do the best graduates leave?

Human capital model:

• you graduate, invest into yourself and want whats best for you so you move elswhere where there are more opporunities

• if you are able to process information you will move away

• focused on labour SUPPLY

Labour que model:

• employers rank graduates based on their skill and the amount of training they reuires

• the best educated will get the jobs because they dont need as much training

• the unsucesfull ones will move away

= results

HBO: more likely to stay in the periphery

Uni: more likely to move away, BUT since there is already less unis that colleges, you probably have already moved so you are mor elikley to be mobile again