Electoral Politics Midterm

Democratic Beliefs and American Democracy — Theiss-Morse & Wagner

Thesis: Abstract support for democracy is high; trust and election-fairness beliefs are now partisan and fragile.

IDs: polarized election integrity · political trust (long decline) ·

3 trust causes (performance, experience, media) ·

3 maintenance factors (ideals, procedures, effectiveness) FOR: shared legitimacy as a bulwark AGAINST: treating fraud beliefs as just "information," not team loyalty

Elections as Theatre — Chou et al.

Thesis: Elections are performances; staging and narrative are politics, not decoration.

IDs: Nimmo's 4 — cast of actors · setting the scene · swagger/style · ritual plot

FOR: aesthetic/performative analysis of campaigns

AGAINST: elections as only policy math

Democratic Ideals and Realities — Achen & Bartels

Thesis: The civics-class picture of voters steering policy is false; groups and parties are the real units.

IDs: populist ideal · leadership-selection model · retrospective theory · folk theory (they REJECT it)

FOR: identity-and-party realism

AGAINST: folk theory / "the people mandate policy"

A Rational God of Vengeance and Reward? — Achen & Bartels

Thesis: Retrospective accountability sounds clean and is still a weak, noisy mechanism.

IDs: retrospective accountability · normative appeal · "less unambiguously positive" / blind retrospection · competence-selection section

FOR: retrospection as the least bad remaining story

AGAINST: "voters grade presidents fairly and pick competent leaders"

Electoral Context and Strategies — Theiss-Morse & Wagner

Thesis: Campaigns fight inside a box set by economy, approval, and the map.

IDs: economy as top fundamental · not all indicators equal · approval / Trump 2020 approval · EC + battlegrounds · few congressional debates · ad tone = closeness · fundamentals ≠ campaigns irrelevant

FOR: campaigns matter at the margin

AGAINST: "fundamentals predicted it, so ads didn't matter"

The Presidential Election: The Empire Strikes Back — Hetherington

Thesis: 2024 was wild on the surface, familiar underneath: fundamentals + affect + mobilization.

IDs: poll swings vs. polarization · fundamentals · affective polarization + measurement · 2024 economy · Ray Fair model · campaigns have influence · Trump issues · persuasion vs. mobilization · different GOTV · similarity > difference

FOR: mobilization/agenda emphasis

AGAINST: "campaigns have zero effect"

What Have We Learned from Presidential Election Forecasting? — Mayer

Thesis: Forecast models work because elections are mostly referenda plus time-for-change.

IDs: time-for-change · models support retrospective voting · 2 economy conclusions (recent conditions; not every series)

FOR: structure over late narrative

AGAINST: "it's only the campaign"

Introduction to Forecasting the 2024 US Elections — Mongrain & Stegmaier

Thesis: Forecasting grew from political-economy models; 2024 still turned on economy + incumbency/approval.

IDs: history of forecasting · 2 core factors · 4 traits of economic indicators · limited campaign effects

FOR: early, objective, timely, voter-relevant indicators

AGAINST: late campaigns inventing a new electorate

Black Swan Election — Martin (LaCivita & Fabrizio)

Thesis: Environment was fertile; they still had to farm it with discipline and targeting.

IDs: last two weeks · working-class appeal · Harris gender (no help) · "one message, ride it" · fist-photo visual

FOR: definition + persuadables + low-propensity

AGAINST: gender/abortion-as-destiny; press-gaffe theory

Turnout and Participation — Theiss-Morse & Wagner

Thesis: Who votes is shaped by eligibility math, old institutions, SES, and motivation.

IDs: VAP vs VEP (VAP understates) · party machines · Australian ballot · SES · women ≥ men · Black-White gap closed · Latinos lower · youth reasons · felon laws · HAVA · interest best predicts activity

FOR: resources + motivation

AGAINST: "registration tweaks alone equalize turnout"

Distinctive Value of Elections / Compulsory Voting — Chapman

Thesis: Election Day is a unique equal-standing ritual; mandatory voting protects that.

IDs: 3 contributions (equal standing, authorization, socialization) · crowding-out objection · uninformed-voter objection

FOR: compulsory voting

AGAINST: "voting is just one optional participation mode"

Deliberation Day? — Ackerman & Fishkin

Thesis: Ordinary people can reason if you build the forum; the status quo produces ignorance and fake opinions.

IDs: Deliberation Day · deliberative poll · phantom opinions / nonattitudes · rational ignorance · internet · Australian-ballot analogy

FOR: designed deliberation

AGAINST: "civil society / the internet will organize itself"

Should Felons Vote? — Feser

Thesis: The franchise is a civic privilege tied to the social contract, not an inalienable natural right.

IDs: civic vs. natural rights · contract broken · punishment includes civic disabilities

FOR: disenfranchisement as principled

AGAINST: automatic restoration as a democracy upgrade

The Authoritarian Moment — Shapiro

Thesis: Authoritarianism is historically normal; today's institutional version is left-coded.

IDs: history's default · mob rule two ways · Altemeyer RWA (submission, aggression, conventionalism) · Conway flip · Costello LWA (aggression, censorship, anti-conventionalism) · threat from LWA (his claim)

FOR: taking left institutional coercion seriously

AGAINST: "authoritarianism exists only on the right"

Spanking or Time Out — Hetherington & Weiler

Thesis: Parties now sort by worldview/authoritarianism, not just New Deal issues.

IDs: 2004 spanking-Bush link · worldview · authoritarian cognitive style · middle of the scale = swing target

FOR: parenting/threat items as political structure

AGAINST: polarization as only issue-position distance

Rise of Negative Partisanship... — Abramowitz & Webster

Thesis: People vote against the other party; down-ballot races follow the president.

IDs: leaners ≠ real independents · negative partisanship · House/Senate nationalization · weaker personal incumbency · implications

FOR: affect + nationalization as the new electoral law

AGAINST: "independents are a moderate swing pool"

Has the American Public Polarized? — Fiorina

Thesis: Elites/activists polarized and sorted; the mass public did not become two ideological poles.

IDs: Congress yes · activists yes · normal people ideology ≈ no · partisan labels/sorting · false polarization · worst perceivers = the engaged · Spiral of Silence

FOR: sorting, not mass bimodality

AGAINST: "ordinary Americans fled to the extremes"

The Storm Is Here — Sides et al.

Thesis: Preferences hardened (calcification) while the parties stayed close, so tiny shifts decide brutal elections.

IDs: calcification vs. polarization · why winners still change (parity) · tectonic plates · election implications · immigration identity shock · priorities

FOR: identity + priorities over conversion

AGAINST: "polarization means the same side always wins"

Partisanship as Social Identity — Iyengar & Krupenkin

Thesis: Party is a social identity; the strongest evidence is emotional dislike, even outside politics.

IDs: affective vs. ideological (more evidence for affective) · party cues in nonpolitical settings · friendships · 3 causes (sorting, media, elites)

FOR: affect as the core polarization fact

AGAINST: "it's mostly issue disagreement"

The God Gap... — French

Thesis: Religiosity now sorts parties as much as race/class theories predicted demographics would.

IDs: coalition of the ascendant + 2020 challenge · Hispanic GOP path · God Gap · White Dem secularization risk · evangelical challenge

FOR: religion as a realignment axis

AGAINST: "demography is Democratic destiny"

The American Party System: A Lament — Eide

Thesis: Progressive reforms gutted party organizations; we got polarized brands without brokerage.

IDs: patronage · solidary rewards · key Progressive change = primaries · what weakened parties · responsible-party dream failed · superdelegates · party-centric reforms

FOR: stronger parties

AGAINST: more plebiscitary nominations as "healthier democracy"

The Case for More Parties — Drutman

Thesis: Two-party first-past-the-post hides factions and blocks the center; add parties/fusion.

IDs: fusion voting · median voter theory · why he rejects it · hidden four-party system + when it cracked

FOR: more parties / fusion

AGAINST: "two parties converge on the median"

Partisanship and Party Change — Theiss-Morse & Wagner

Thesis: Party ID is still the workhorse; "independents" are mostly leaners; campaigns prime owned issues.

IDs: normal vote · congressional vs. presidential differences · issue ownership · pure vs. leaning independents · future of parties

FOR: durable partisanship

AGAINST: "parties are dying because more people say independent"

Candidate Civility... RCV — John & Douglas

Thesis: Ranking creates an incentive not to trash opponents you need as 2nd choices.

IDs: what RCV is · civility theory · cautious positive city-level conclusion

FOR: modest civility/engagement gains

AGAINST: claiming RCV remakes national politics by itself

Ranked Choice Voting Is a Bad Choice — von Spakovsky & Adams

Thesis: RCV hides a simple plurality rule, exhausts ballots, and confuses voters.

IDs: what RCV "destroys" · ballot exhaustion · clarity/disenfranchisement · runoff as fix · two traits of reformers

FOR: plurality or a real two-person runoff

AGAINST: RCV as a neutral fairness upgrade

Social Science Fails to Prove Racists Elected Trump — al-Gharbi

Thesis: The master-variable "it was racism" literature overclaims.

IDs: measurement problems · class/education/dealignment evidence · non-White shifts

FOR: skepticism of resentment-as-proof

AGAINST: "studies proved racists elected Trump"

It Wasn't the Economy, Stupid — Abramowitz

Thesis: White racial resentment and long racial realignment, not pocketbooks alone, explain 2016.

IDs: White GOP drivers · resentment ≠ old-fashioned racism · Trump rhetoric + statistical evidence

FOR: racialized strategy as central

AGAINST: "it's the economy, stupid"

Impact of Modern Sexism on 2016 — Maxwell & Shields

Thesis: A subtler sexism battery predicted opposition to Clinton.

IDs: Blair poll items · modern sexism = denial of discrimination + resentment of special treatment

FOR: gender attitudes as a 2016 vote ingredient

AGAINST: only old-fashioned "women are inferior" counts as sexism

The Ties That Double-Bind — Teele

Thesis: Underrepresentation is less "voters hate women" than colliding family and ambition norms.

IDs: 3 biases (hostility, double standards, double bind) · no simple anti-woman finding · why the bind emerges · why families help · conclusion

FOR: family-structure / elite-recruitment account

AGAINST: blanket voter misogyny as the main mechanism