midterm 2- IAFS

Measures of Economic Activity (Fig 8.1)

Indicators used to gauge the size/health of an economy, such as GDP (total value of goods and services produced), GDP per capita (GDP divided by population), and GNI. Example: Fig 8.5 in lecture tracks World, US, and China GDP (in trillions of USD) from 1960 to 2023 to show the global economy growing.

World Bank

International financial institution that provides long-term loans, grants, and aid to developing countries, focused on growth and development. Example: A loan to build roads and schools in a low-income country to support long-term development.

International Monetary Fund (IMF)

IO that promotes monetary and financial stability; gives policy advice, monitors economies, and lends to countries facing financial instability. Example: In the 1980s Latin American debt crises, the IMF lent money but attached conditions (austerity, opening markets).

Exchange Rate

The 'cost' of buying another currency; how much of one currency you can trade for another. It fluctuates constantly. Example: As of the lecture, 1 US dollar = 0.87 euro = 156.68 yen = 5.15 Brazilian real.

Reserve Currency

A foreign currency held by governments to pay off debts and reduce exchange-rate risk. States want their currency to be central because it gives big advantages. Example: The US dollar is the world's main reserve currency.

De-Dollarization

The gradual erosion of the US dollar's dominance as a global currency; reflects the US's weakening status and the weakening liberal international order. Example: Countries trading in their own currencies or non-dollar currencies to reduce reliance on the dollar.

BRICS

Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa; rising economies (identified in the early 2010s) building investment, finance, and currency partnerships among Global South countries. Plays a role for the Global South similar to what the G7 plays for the Global North. Example: BRICS members coordinating finance and currency exchange outside Western-dominated institutions.

Foreign Direct Investment (FDI)

Investment made by governments, individuals, or businesses in countries other than their own (buying foreign companies, expanding operations abroad, buying foreign stocks/bonds). Drivers: economic and political stability and freedom. Example: A US company building a factory in Poland, or Chile and Sweden topping lists of FDI beneficiaries.

Race to the Bottom

When states compete for foreign investment by lowering wages, restrictions, and regulations. Leads to deregulation, volatile economies, worse working conditions and human rights, and reinforced inequality. Example: A developing country weakening labor protections and taxes to convince a multinational to build a factory there instead of a neighbor.

Washington Consensus

Package of economic reform conditions (opening to global markets, austerity/cuts to state spending) attached to IMF loans. Example: The IMF's 1980s loans to Latin American countries came with conditions to open markets and cut state spending.

Trade Deficit and Surplus

Deficit = a country imports more than it exports. Surplus = a country exports more than it imports. Example: China often ran a trade surplus and leveraged it for remarkable growth; the US runs deficits.

Global Value Chain

The sharing of international production, with different tasks carried out in different countries. Example: 'The Myth of the American Car' - nearly every finished car has parts made in other countries, so it is not entirely domestic.

Comparative Advantage

Theory that countries benefit when they specialize in goods they produce relatively well and trade freely. This is the core logic of free trade. Example: The US makes cars and Costa Rica grows cocoa; each specializes and trades rather than producing everything inefficiently.

Tariffs

A tax on imports; raises the price of foreign goods to protect domestic industries, but raises prices and can cause inflationary pressure. Example: The US taxes imported Chinese cars so they cost as much as American cars, protecting the US car industry.

Economic Nationalism

Ideology linked to opposition to free trade, support for isolationism, pro-market domestic economics, and a strong nationalist stance in international negotiations. Often supported by those 'left behind' by globalization. Example: Industrial and rural workers backing candidates who promise tariffs and bringing back manufacturing.

World Trade Organization (WTO)

IO that settles trade disputes (its dispute settlement mechanism is the most polarizing part), reviews national policies, builds capacity of developing economies, and cooperates with other IOs. Successor to the GATT. Example: A panel of judges hears a case when one country accuses another of unfair tariffs.

Belt and Road Initiative (BRI)

Chinese-funded infrastructure project (roads, railways, ports, airports) designed to streamline China's trade interests and reduce trade costs. Example: China financing ports and railways abroad to move goods more cheaply to and from China.

Permissive Consensus

Post-Cold War belief that globalization was inevitable and beneficial: elites benefited, liberalism looked like it had won, and the electoral costs of pursuing trade were very low because voters did not care as long as globalization delivered. It ended by 2016 (after the 2008 financial crisis). Example: Politicians in the 1990s expanding trade deals with little voter backlash.

Immigration

The 'import' of migrants; the migrant flow of people INTO a place. Example: Syrian refugees arriving in Germany.

Emigration

The 'export' of migrants; the migrant flow of people FROM a place. Example: People leaving Syria or Myanmar.

Contact Theory

Those who live in close proximity to migrant communities tend to be the least concerned about them; exposure reduces fear. Example: Residents of a diverse neighborhood being less anti-immigrant than people who rarely meet immigrants.

Group Threat Theory

Greater migration is linked to a rise in nativism; migration induces fear through perceived threat and competition. Example: A sudden influx of migrants boosting support for anti-immigrant parties.

Push Factors

Characteristics of the ORIGIN that force people to leave: war and violence, climate change, economic collapse, social and political persecution. Example: Violence and economic collapse in the Middle East pushing people out in 2015.

Pull Factors

Characteristics of the DESTINATION that attract migrants: economic opportunity, political openness/democracy, culture (diasporas, cultural similarity). Example: In 2015 migrants went to Germany and Sweden because of EU openness, jobs, and existing Middle Eastern communities.

Brain Drain and Brain Gain

Drain = loss of human capital (skilled people) to elsewhere. Gain = gain of human capital from elsewhere. Immigration on net is linked to higher productive capacity, investment, and state revenue. Example: A doctor trained in Nigeria moves to the UK (drain for Nigeria, gain for the UK).

Nativism

Political position favoring the interests of native-born inhabitants over immigrants; rises with greater migration (Group Threat Theory). Example: Anti-immigrant parties gaining votes after the 2015 migrant crisis.

Syrian Refugee Crisis

Part of the European Migrant Crisis of 2015: mass migration from the Middle East to Europe (starting 2014) via Mediterranean sea passages and the Balkans; often cited as a turning point for the radical right. Example: Germany took about 56% of the overall refugees in the lecture's comparison, while Poland took virtually no Syrians.

Ukrainian Refugee Crisis

After Russia's 2022 invasion: about 5.7 million refugees plus almost 8 million internally displaced; about 90% are women and children (men 18-60 barred from leaving); largest refugee crisis in Europe since WWII. Example: Poland took in about 17% of overall refugees, many of them Ukrainian.

Rohingya Crisis

Since 2017, Myanmar's government carried out a genocide against the Rohingya; nearly 1.5 million (estimated) fled Rakhine, one of Myanmar's poorest regions, to neighboring countries. Example: Around 1 million Rohingya now live in Bangladesh.

Modernization Theory

Group of theories: development proceeds in a step-wise sequence similar for most societies, is mainly caused by domestic factors, and is not reversible. Rostow's stages: Traditional, Preconditions to take-off, Take-off, Drive to maturity, High mass consumption. Critiques: Eurocentric, ignores global forces, and development has gone backwards. Example: An agricultural economy industrializing (take-off) and later becoming a high-consumption society.

Guns, Germs, and Steel

Jared Diamond's geography-based theory: Eurasian dominance stems from favorable environment (East-West axis, domesticable plants/animals, moderate climates, proximity to Atlantic/Mediterranean, connected but divided Europe fostering competition). Critiques: correlation does not equal causation and geographic determinism. Example: Diamond explaining why Europeans, not Indigenous Americans, ended up conquering the other.

Geographic Determinism

The idea that geography is unchangeable and human actions have no impact on developmental outcomes. Critique: reality is cyclical (the natural world and human development affect each other). Example: Claiming a country is poor only because of its climate, ignoring institutions and policy.

Inclusive Institutions

Institutions (Political Science answer to inequality): inclusive political (democracy, freedom of speech/assembly) lead to inclusive economic (property rights, constrained state, accountability), which drive innovation and investment, then economic growth and wealth. Example: Strong property rights encouraging investment and inventions like the cotton gin.

Neo-Europe

Colonies designed for resettlement and replicating Europe (as opposed to extractive colonies); tend to develop inclusive institutions, democracy, and wealth. Example: The United States, Canada, Australia, New Zealand.

Dependency Theory

The Global South has grown dependent on global markets and the Global North, leaving it in perpetual cycles of growth and collapse. Periphery exports raw materials to the Core, Core manufactures and adds value, Periphery imports finished goods, and wealth stays in the Core. Sources: global finance (IMF loans/debt), migration (remittances), resource curse. Example: A country exporting raw copper then buying expensive manufactured goods.

Resource Curse

Dependence on a single natural resource for growth leaves a state dependent on global demand for it; creates boom-and-bust cycles and can lead to violence, conflict, corruption, and rentier states. Example: An oil-dependent economy collapsing when global oil prices crash.

Rentier States

States that get most of their revenue from selling a natural resource (rents) rather than taxing citizens; linked to the resource curse, corruption, and conflict. Example: A government funded almost entirely by oil exports.

Health Nationalism

Governments prioritize their domestic populations and national borders during global crises. Includes vaccine nationalism: hoarding cures, treatments, and vaccines beyond what your state needs. Example: Wealthy states buying COVID-19 vaccine doses amounting to nearly three times the global population while poorer states lacked access.

COVID-19

Pandemic that emerged in China (lab leak or animal mutation) and spread worldwide by Feb 2020 because China is so central to the global economy. Global North and Latin America were hit hardest; hypotheses: democracies, population density, hubris, health inequality affecting infrastructure and reporting. Example: Death rates on the lecture map were highest in the US, Brazil, Peru, and parts of Europe.

Health Dependency

Much of the developing world depends on the Global North (and NGOs) to provide resources to combat health crises. Example: Red Cross and Doctors Without Borders supplying medicine, equipment, and treatment in much of the Global South.

Life Expectancy

Average number of years a person is expected to live; a key health/development measure that is higher in the Global North than the Global South. Example: Japan and Switzerland near 80s-90s, Nigeria and Sierra Leone near 50s-60s; a poor person in West Virginia has lower life expectancy than a rich person in Nairobi.

Infant Mortality

Deaths of infants per 1,000 live births; much higher in the Global South. Example: Japan, Norway, and Singapore are near 2 per 1,000 while Nigeria and Sierra Leone are near 70-75.

World Health Organization (WHO)

Global meeting place on disease: coordinates response strategies, monitors data and trends to evaluate risk and issue alerts, and advises states. Relies on voluntary donations (the US was a top-three donor but has withdrawn). Example: Issuing alerts and advising countries during the COVID-19 pandemic.

Environmentalism

Ideology/movement encouraging deeper understanding of human impact on the environment, with political (policy-makers' responsibility), economic (economic actors' responsibility), and ethical (moral duty to care for the planet) dimensions. Example: The Cuyahoga River fire sparking pollution regulation.

Post-Materialism

Societies evolve from economic debates to quality-of-life concerns (environment, self-expression, individualism); the 'Silent Revolution' (~1960) after WWII; a sixth stage on modernization. Basis of the affluence hypothesis and the cultural backlash. Example: Wealthy Western voters prioritizing climate and social issues over jobs and wages.

Green Growth

Development strategies prioritizing economic growth that is also environmentally friendly (sustainable development); developing in harmony with the planet. Example: Investing in renewable energy to grow the economy while cutting emissions.

Kyoto Protocol

1997 treaty, one of the first global climate agreements; committed states to cut greenhouse gas emissions, but only developed nations had binding targets and there was no long-term goal. Seen as ineffective: targets expired in 2012 with few met, key industrialized countries (like the US) did not participate, and enforcement was lacking. Example: Developed countries missing their 2012 reduction targets without penalty.

Paris Agreement

2015 successor to Kyoto: sets a long-term temperature ceiling and lets all states set their own flexible, non-binding climate plans (binding reporting and transparency). Example: Every country submitting its own voluntary emissions pledge.

Leader-Laggard Dynamic

Tension between the most and least active countries on climate change; reflects the free-rider problem. Example: The West invests heavily in environmental protections while other states do little and benefit anyway.

Responsibility Attribution

Disagreement over who is responsible for climate action: developing states say the North 'created this mess' and global action limits their ability to industrialize; the Global North says industrializing South states are now the biggest CO2 emitters. Example: China and India resisting strict targets while the US and EU point to their emissions.

Differential Exposure

Climate change poses an existential risk to some states and not others, so states differ in how much they favor global policy; states with influence on the global agenda tend to be more adaptable. Example: A low-lying island nation facing existential risk versus a large wealthy country able to adapt.

Affluence Hypothesis

Domestic environmentalism rises with wealth: the environment is a 'luxury good' and richer people and places can afford to vote for it (based on post-materialism). Example: Wealthy Western European countries having stronger Green Party support.

Threat Response Hypothesis

Support for environmentalism increases as climate change poses a more real, immediate threat to people. Example: Residents of a flood- or wildfire-prone area caring more about climate policy.

Fridays for Future

Youth-led climate protest movement (from 2019) driven by the belief that global climate action was not proportionate to the threat and that green politics had failed. Effect: protests hurt climate support among extreme-right supporters but hardened support among green and far-left supporters (polarization). Example: School strikes for climate.

Green Backlash

Growing resistance and polarization against environmental policy, partly because the costs of green policies are unequally distributed (often an urban-rural divide). Example: Rural voters opposing climate regulations that raise their costs.

Losers of Environmentalism

Groups who bear disproportionate costs of green policies (e.g., rural, industrial, and fossil-fuel-dependent workers) and are more likely to turn against environmental policy. Example: Coal workers in an area losing jobs due to emissions rules.

Environmental Chauvinism

Belief that environmentalism should be handled nationally; a nationalist approach to environmental protection that returns sovereignty to nation-states. Example: Right-populist parties rejecting international climate agreements in favor of national control.

Populism

A 'thin ideology' with few of its own policy goals that can attach to other ideologies; at its most general it views the world as us vs. them, where 'us' is the pure people and 'them' is a corrupt elite. Example: A politician promising to take power back from the establishment on behalf of 'the real people.'

Inclusive Populism

Populism that casts a broad net for the 'us' (universal redistribution, symbolic inclusion of marginalized communities) and a narrow 'them' focused on economic elites. Example: Pink Tide governments in Latin America in the 2000s promising redistribution.

Exclusive Populism

Populism that casts a narrow net for the 'us', defining the people around a specific identity group, and casts the 'them' as both elites AND ethnic others. Example: Europe's radical right (e.g., National Front under Jean-Marie Le Pen; Swiss People's Party 'black sheep' poster).

Left Behind Class

Voters hurt by economic changes (deindustrialization, globalization, automation, environmentalism) who increasingly vote for the radical right. Example: Industrial and rural manufacturing workers who lost jobs to foreign competition.

Relative Deprivation

When an individual is not as well off as they feel they should be given their expectations of society; strongly associated with higher populist sentiment and radical action. Example: A factory worker whose parents lived comfortably but who now struggles, turning to a populist party.

Cultural Backlash

Resentment among socially conservative voters left behind by socially liberal, cosmopolitan change (generational replacement, higher education, urban growth, ethnic diversification, gender equality). The radical right promises a return to the 'before times.' Example: Older social conservatives, once the majority, backing the radical right as society became more diverse and liberal.

EXTRA: Vaccine Nationalism

Hoarding of cures, treatments, and vaccines beyond what your state needs. Example: Rich countries reserving far more COVID-19 doses than their populations needed.

EXTRA: Collective Action Problem

Everyone benefits from cooperation, but each actor has an incentive to go their own way. Used for trade, public health, and climate. Example: Every country benefits from stopping climate change, but each wants others to pay the cost.

EXTRA: Remittances

Money emigrants send back home; can fuel dependence on Global North economies. Example: A worker in the US wiring money to family in Mexico.

EXTRA: Diaspora

A community of migrants from one homeland living abroad; a pull factor and part of growing global networks. Example: Middle Eastern communities already in Germany and France drawing 2015 migrants.

EXTRA: Extractive Colonies

Colonies designed to transfer resources from the colony to the colonizer; tend to leave extractive, non-inclusive institutions. Example: A colony built around exporting minerals to Europe.

EXTRA: Liberalism vs. Protectionism

Liberalism = belief that open markets are best and lift everyone up. Protectionism = domestic markets should be protected from global competition. Example: Free trade agreements (liberal) vs. tariffs (protectionist).

EXTRA: GATT / ITO

ITO (International Trade Organization) was proposed with rules on trade, FDI, and employment but was ineffective. GATT (General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade) is an agreement (not an IO) setting free-trade rules based on non-discrimination, negotiated in rounds (Geneva, Kennedy, Tokyo, Uruguay, Doha). Example: If you sell cars to China for $100, you sell them to Nigeria for $100.

EXTRA: Chinese Import Shock

After joining the WTO in 2001, China became the leading exporter almost overnight and the final assembly point in the global value chain, hurting manufacturing in other countries. Example: US factory towns losing jobs to Chinese manufacturing.

EXTRA: Battle at Seattle

1999 protests against the WTO by an unusual mix of workers, progressives, unions, and conservatives; an early sign trade was becoming politicized. Example: Protesters in Seattle blocking WTO meetings.

EXTRA: 2008 Financial Crisis

Turning point that exposed flaws in the global economy, bred distrust of elites, and ended the permissive consensus by 2016. Example: Resentment over unequal recovery fueling economic nationalism.

EXTRA: Winners vs. Left Behind (Globalization)

Winners: managers, information-services workers, urban areas. Left behind: industrial workers, rural and manufacturing areas, who disproportionately become economic nationalists. Example: A city tech manager vs. a rural factory worker.

EXTRA: Euro Crisis

Example of global finance limiting state sovereignty: states tied to a shared currency cannot control their own monetary policy. Example: Eurozone members unable to adjust their own currency during the crisis.

Montreal Protocol

1987 treaty phasing out ozone-depleting substances; a success story because it gave a clear signal and powerful incentives, with a Multilateral Fund helping developing countries comply. Example: Healing of the Antarctic ozone hole.

EXTRA: IPCC

Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (established 1988): UN body informing governments of climate trends, research, and strategic responses. Example: Reports guiding countries' climate policy.

EXTRA: CBAM (Climate Border Adjustment Mechanism)

EU tariff on imports based on the pollution generated producing them, creating incentives for clean trade. Example: A steel import taxed more if made with dirty energy.

EXTRA: H.I.P.P.O.

Causes of biodiversity loss: Habitat destruction, Invasive species, Pollution, Population, Overharvesting. Example: Clearing forest for farmland destroys habitat.

EXTRA: Pink Tide

Wave of left-populist elections across Latin America in the 2000s promising redistribution and inclusion of marginalized communities. Example: Latin American elections in the 2000s promising redistribution (inclusive populism).

EXTRA: Actual vs. Perceived Immigration

Greater actual migrant flows modestly increase radical-right support, but perceived threat matters more; countries neighboring migration hotspots show higher radical-right voting. Example: Nativist voting rising in places with few actual immigrants.

EXTRA: Consequences of Populism

Global disintegration, higher global tariff rates, restrictive migration policies, and democratic deconsolidation. Example: Rising tariffs and tighter borders challenging the liberal international order.