Pop. & Society First Exam

most populous 3 countries

india, china, u.s.

historical pattern of world population growth

geometric fashion: mom and dad have kids, those kids have kids, etc.

what demographic factors contributed to that pattern

agricultural revolution in 8000BC - more stable food supply led to slow increase of population

industrial revolution in 1700s was begining of rapid growth, as countries industrialized their nutrition improved along with living standards, so pop. rose

when did the world rate of population growth peak

1960s and 70s

where do most people live today

asia

What proportion of the world’s population that has ever lived is estimated to be alive today?

6.8% of 117 billion people, most died in childbirth

what is the demographic transition theory

transition of high to low fertility occurs because of modernization, urbanization, and industrialization; mortality decline is prerequsite

• not all countries have completed this

What are key differences between the nature of the demographic transition in LDRs as opposed to MDRs?

• more sudden for LDRs, their death rates dropped much faster and more suddenly bc of importation of external medicine, transition happened much faster

• slower and less sudden for MDRs so their transition was slower

• pop. growth is MDRs is more predictable

What challenges have countries such as Nigeria faced in going through the demographic transition?

too many young people and not enough jobs, people are still having so many kids and the country’s infrastructure is unable to support it, economy can’t keep up

What was Malthus’ perspective on population growth?

his theory - population will grow more rapidly than the means of sustenance, there will be too many people and not enough resources; advocated for moral restraint and against vice

2 postula - food is necessary for humans, food grows at arithmetic rate and population grows at geometric rate (nothing can successfully reduce the passion between the sexes), hence mass starvation and poverty are natural consequences of population growth

positive checks

natural or human made events that increase mortality - famine, floods, natural disasters

preventitive checks

things people or families could do to prevent overpopulation: waiting until later in life to get married, birth control but considered a vice

mistakes of malthus

• too pesimestic: there was no mass starvation in europe, he was overboard about preventitive checks

• density is only half of the population equation

• didn’t acknowledge european marriage system

• too simplistic and generally wrong: population does not grow geometrically, what he considered population problems were actually just results of an unwise and unjust social organization of production and distribution

julian simon and his theory

economist, believed that human potential is the greatest resource, viewed more people as a good thing because more ppl = more thoughts and innovations, therefore there will be solutions to issues of finite resources, people will come up with solutions, believed that human ingenuity and population growth would create long-term abundance rather than resource shortages

• wrote “the ultimate resource”

ester boserup and her theory

economist, believed that rising population density would trigger intensification, the use of new tech and more labor would get bigger harvests from less land, more labor might sustain might sustain more people over time thus hasten the demographic transition

positive and negative effects of population growth on the environment and the economy

positive - example of Machakos, more people provided both labor and the necessity for a transition to intensification and better land stewardship, this also provided economic stability; more generally could lead to optimization of land use, innovation, and resource efficiency

negative - more people means more food and resources, this produces more waste and more greenhouse gas emissions, also some country’s economy’s can’t keep up with more people like Nigeria

How is population growth related to food production (consider historical context here as well as future concerns)?

• in 20th century food production outpaced population growth despite concerns; resources became cheaper and global poverty decreased

• historically, agricultural revolution in 8000BC (previously mentioned), also green revolution in mid 20th century, dramatically increased global crop production/yields through technological innovations

agricultural intensification

methods to increase output from available land: new seeds, fertilizers, Green Revolution

• different from extensification bc these are methods, solutions, whereas the other is just the land available, this is about what can be done to help the latter

agricultural extensification

land available to till and irrigate for food production

carrying capacity

max number of individuals of a species that an environment can sustainably support over a long period

natural increase

difference between births and deaths in a population; this is pop growth in closed pops

rate

number of events in period divided by population at risk of experiencing that event

measures the frequency of the same event (births, deaths) relative to a specific population size over a given period of time

age specific sex rates

proportion or ratio of males to females within a specific age group of a population

3 facets of population size

1. absolute size

2. distribution (relative size)

3. density

how much of all projected increase of 2.3 billion in population from 2011-2050 will take place in LDRS

virtually all, more than 90%

closed population

can only grow through natural increase

open population

can only grow through natural increase and net migration

population momentum

potential for future increase in pop. size even if fertility levels were to drop to replacement level due to history of high fertility

dependency ratio

number of dependents, usually 0-14, to number of working age/non depedent population (15-65 ish)

demographic balancing equation

population at given time = pop. at time 0 + births between 0-T - deaths + immigrants - out immigrants

• B-D = natural increase

• I-O = net migration

ratio

describes the size of a sub-group relative to another sub-group

cohort

group of people experiencing the same effect at the same time

demographic dividend

relatively large pop. of working class individuals potentially able to contribute to economic growth, temporary effect of fertility decline bc relatively few dependents

• China, Hong Kong, South Korea, Ireland

• can help economy ‘take off’ but must be prepared for it

cohort component method

used to project future population size and age-sex structures based on separate assumptions for fertility, mortality, and migration

• focuses on cohort, what changes populations, and demographic balancing equation

1. starts with current pop. count, base pop., that’s divided into cohorts

2. projects survival/mortality

3. projects births/fertility

4. accounts for net migration

5. repeat for future predictions

modern day malthusians/impact

influenced writings of hitler, ‘doomsayers’ of today, paul ehrlich