Factors that affect party success

6 factors that affect party success

1. Leadership

2. Unity

3. Media

4. Events

5. Policy

6. Opposition

Importance of leaders

1. Potential PM!

2. Public face of the party for the electorate

5 qualities needed by leaders

• Effective communication of the party’s message

• Ability to unite the party

• Clear sense of purpose

• Vision

• Ensure party efficacy when in power/opposition

6 qualities voters look for in a leader

• Experience

• Decisiveness

• Ability to lead (duh)

• Media image

• Intelligence

• Apparent honesty

Leaders who enhanced their party’s fortunes - Margaret Thatcher

• Ran the country with an iron fist, held strong to her New Right values

Leaders who enhanced their party’s fortunes - Tony Blair

• Changed the fate of L by creating ‘New Labour’

• Had an excellent media presence

• Maintained tight control over party messaging

• Won 3 GEs

  • Saw off 4 Tory leaders

• Reformed Clause IV of the Labour Party constitution on nationalisation to fit his messaging, which remains to this day

Leaders who enhanced their party’s fortunes - David Cameron

• Had one of the highest approval ratings of all party leaders during his term at about 4.5

• 2015 - bought home an unexpected election victory

• Was the first sitting C to increase the party’s vote share since 1955

Leaders who enhanced their party’s fortunes - Nicola Sturgeon 👑

• Was incredibly impressive in TV debates (and still when she speaks now)

• Performed amazingly in opinion polls

  • Got into a bit of trouble re. financial mismanagement and her husband

Leaders who enhanced their party’s fortunes - Nigel Farage

• Was favourable in debates for UKIP and RUK, gaining a kind of cult of personality

• Is a master of the media and always ensures his party is constantly in the news (be that TBP or RUK)

Leaders who enhanced their party’s fortunes - Charles Kennedy

• Was popular and strong, taking LD to their most successful result in 2015

Leaders who’ve damaged the prospects of their party - Tony Blair

• Made highly controversial decisions because he could due to his personal leadership style

  • 2003 - entered the Iraw War

  • Introduced tuition fees

Leaders who’ve damaged the prospects of their party - David Cameron

• Ran a party divided by Europe

  • Attempted to manage these divisions through the Brexit ref, but ultimately left a deeply split party in the wake of his resignation that is yet to reconcile

Leaders who’ve damaged the prospects of their party - Gordon Brown

• Called a voter a bigot while on mic with the Sun (by accident)

Leaders who’ve damaged the prospects of their party - Ed Miliband

• Ridiculed for his voice and appearance

• ‘Hell yeah I’m tough enough!’

• Ate a bacon sandwich incredibly awkwardly

Leaders who’ve damaged the prospects of their party - Nick Clegg

• Formed a coalition with C and promptly broke a manifesto promise - raised tuition fees

2010-2019 - increasing significance of leaders

• Although leaders don’t win or lose elections in the UK like they do in the USA, the fortunes of their parties are influenced by their performance and image

  • Incl in devolved assemblies

Importance of unity in the fate of political parties

• Political commentators say a disunited party has no hope of being elected

• Divided parties appear weak, unable to lead and deliver policy promises

• Divisions prevent parties from focusing on the key issues of the day

• This is especially the case when the leadership is at war with its members (e.g. Corybn and the MPs)

1980s - Conservative unity

• C was united around Thatcher

  • Two huge GE victories - 1983 and 1987

1980s - Labour divisions

• Was incredibly split between left and right wings - modernising or maintaining its old Labour principles

  • 1981 - actually split

    • Suffered 2 crushing GE defeats

Late 1990s - Labour unity

• Blair united L in the 90s under the banner of New Labour

  • Had an incredibly impressive GE victory in 1997

Late 1990s - Conservative division

• C divided under Major re. UK’s position in Europe

  • Suffered a crushing election defeat in 1997

2010-2017 - Conservative division

• Huge divisions re Europe

• Still emerged as the largest party in the HoC across 3 elections

2017 - Labour comeback

• Radical new manifesto and leadership led to an improvement in its fortunes, but still didn’t win

2019 - Conservative unity

• C united around Getting Brexit Done

  • BoJo suspended all moderate Tories from the party

    • Mandated all candidates to sign a pledge to ‘get Brexit done’ 

2019 - Labour divisions

• Divided over

  • Brexit

  • Antisemitism

  • Its radical manifesto

Conclusion

• Unity is an important factor, but divided parties are still elected from time to time

Importance of media

• Shapes perceptions in the wider public

  • Better media presence = easier to project the party message to the public → more votes!

• Sways wavering voters

Blair and the media

• Blair had excellent media skills

• L ‘courted’ owners of the print media

  • Sun switched its alliance from C to L

2017 - Labour media strategy

• Social media

  • Impacted the election result positively for L

Strengths of the media - party leader exposure

• TV debates can give excellent exposure to party leaders, as detailed below

Weaknesses of the media - doesn’t guarantee success

• L did not win in 2017

• May (C) had strong printed media support in 2017 but didn’t get a majority

Weaknesses of the media - existing affiliations

• Media reinforces existing political affiliations rather than changing minds

  • +ive correlation between political views of readership and of newspaper

Weaknesses of the media - actual influence (2017)

• Vast majority of UK newspapers supported C (because of their owners) but C actually lost its HoC majority

• Corbyn wasn’t supported by print media but still did well, and was supported by non-trad media but still lost

Weaknesses of the media - neutrality

• TV and radio broadcasters (especially the BBC and ITV) have to be neutral

  • This is by law and regulated by OFCOM

Nick Clegg & the media

• Did v well in TV debates, leading to Cleggmania

  • Led to the LD/C coalition

Ed Miliband & the media

• Performed badly in TV debates

  • Led to L losing the election

• Also: was very awkward and got photographed/videoed doing silly things and looking silly

Jeremy Corbyn & the media

• Performed surprisingly well in TV debates

• Embraced all forms of media, especially social media

• Was negatively viewed by all print newspapers but still did well in the election

Theresa May & the media

• Refused to participate in televised debates

  • Perceived negatively by the media

Positive consequences of social media

• Politicians can talk directly to the electorate

• Bypasses rules about media coverage that some may find excessively restrictive

• Decreases influence of traditional media outlets that favour certain narratives and perspectives

Negative consequences of social media

• Difficult to control

• Difficult to measure/quantify effects and importance

• Can be used in intrusive and forceful ways

  • Often ethically dubious

    • E.g. Cambridge Analytica and Facebook data

• Acts as an echo chamber like print media, so people’s ideas are never challenged

Conclusion

• Influential long-term

• Can have less influence short-term

Policy explanation

• Both in manifesto commitments and then delivery while in office

Thatcher - important policy

• ‘Right to buy’

  • Allowed W/C people to buy their council house at a discount to own their own home (and therefore improve circumstances)

• V popular, allowed C to dominate elections

Johnson - important policy

• ‘Get Brexit Done’

  • Contrary to L’s position of re-negotiation and a new referendum

• Led to soaring polls and an election victory

1992 - Labour

• Held an internal policy review and moved to a more moderate policy programme

  • Still didn’t win due to

    • Leadership: doubts about Kinnock

    • Media: newspapers whipped up the doubts about Kinnock

1983 - Falklands War

• Ended in victory, cementing Thatcher’s image as the Iron Lady

  • Allowed her to then conclusively win the 1983 election

1992 - Black Wednesday

• Damaged Major’s financial reputation

  • Led to C defeat in 1997

2008 - financial crisis

• Damaged Brown’s financial reputation

  • Led to L defeat in 2010

2003 - Iraq

• Blair seriously messed up with Iraq (and also had lots of backbench rebellions) yet still comfortably won the 2005 election

Blair

• C was weak during his reign due to infighting re Europe and Thatcherism

• Leaders: Hague, Duncan-Smith

  • Unable to cut through to wider public

• Allowed him to sail through on large majorities, easily winning GEs

1992

• C had lots of issues

  • Division over Europe

  • Terrible Poll Tax

  • Inexperienced new leader (Major from Thatcher)

• Yet still won a 21-seat majority

2024

• C was an incredibly weak opposition, damaged by terrible leaders and terrible decisions

• Made it easy for L to win a large majority