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commodity swaps:
basis =
spot price - near term futures price
commodity swaps:
calendar spread =
near term futures price - longer term future price
futures contracts:
total return =
price return + roll return + collateral return
commodities contracts:
basis swap
a bet on one price versus another
commodities contracts:
volatility swap
long vol means volatility is higher than strike
commodities contracts:
excess return swap
a bet on the level of an index
futures contracts:
insurance theory
backwardation; producers sell futures because they want to lock in prices
futures contracts:
hedging pressure hypothesis
dominant force between producers and consumers hedging wins
futures contracts:
theory of storage
high storage costs - contango; low storage costs - backwardation
commodities indexes:
a production-weighted fund will have a heavy exposure to:
energy
REITs
no corporate tax; must distribute 90% of taxable income; high dividend yield
REOC
taxed as regular corporation; can retain earnings; riskier projects; lower dividend yield; growth oriented
Equity REITs
own and operate properties; income mostly from rent
Mortgage REITs
hold mortgages or MBS; leveraged; highly sensitive to interest rates
real estate investment:
apartments
short leases; rents adjust quickly
real estate investment:
office/retail
long leases; rents adjust slowly; more stable
real estate investment:
lodging/hotels
daily pricing; most cyclical
real estate investment:
self storage
short leases; rents adjust quickly
NAV Calculation Steps
estimate forward NOI, subtracting non-cash rent; divide by cap rate; add other assets; subtract liabilities; divide by diluted shares outstanding
Funds From Operations(FFO) Calculation
net income + depreciation + amortization + losses on property sales - gains on property sales
Adjusted FFO Calculation (better proxy for sustainable cash flow)
FFO - non cash rent - recurring capex and leasing costs
Real Estate Valuation:
A premium or discount to NAV depends on these 3 things:
market sentiment; growth expectations; asset quality
REIT Valuation:
Cap rate =
discount rate - estimated growth rate
REIT Valuation:
3 absolute value methods:
NAV; dividend discount; DCF
REIT Valuation:
3 relative value methods:
P/FFO; P/AFFO; EV/EBITDA
Real Estate Investment:
NOI =
effective gross income - operating expenses - property maintenance allowance
Real Estate Investment:
gross rent =
rent per unit or space x rentable space
Real Estate Investment:
effective gross income =
gross rent + other income - vacancy/concessions
Real Estate Investment:
LTV =
mortgage principal outstanding / current property value
Real Estate Investment:
debt service coverage(DSC) ratio =
NOI / debt service
Real Estate Investment:
debt service =
principal + interest payments
Real Estate Investment:
equity dividend rate =
pre-tax cash flow / initial equity investment
Real Estate Investment:
pre-tax cash flow =
NOI - debt service
Real Estate Investment:
initial equity =
property purchase price - mortgage amount
Real Estate Investment:
depreciable base =
property cost + qualifying improvements - land value
Real Estate Investment:
annual depreciation =
depreciable base / useful life
Real Estate Investment:
taxable income =
NOI - interest expense - depreciation expense
Real Estate Investment:
core-plus
stable but requires some improvements
Real Estate Investment:
value-add property
vacancies/upgrades; more execution risk
Real Estate Investment:
Lessor =
property owner
Real Estate Investment:
lessee =
tenant
Real Estate Investment:
first lien
lender has priority claim on property upon default
Real Estate Investment:
Appraisal-based indexes have…
appraisal lag which overstates the diversification benefits of real estate
Real Estate Investment:
Transaction-based indexes …
lead appraisal-based indexes but introduce noise in the index measurement
Real Estate Investment:
loss to lease =
difference between current market rent and rent being charged on existing leases
Real Estate Investment:
Stable NOI —>
direct capitalization
Real Estate Investment:
changing/predictable NOI —>
DCF
Real Estate Investment:
Income Approach:
income generation; large, unique commercial properties
Real Estate Investment:
Cost Approach:
investor shouldn’t pay more than the cost to build an equivalent property
Real Estate Investment:
sales comparison approach:
recent transaction prices of comps; single family residential
Real Estate Indexes:
2 types of indexes:
repeat sales; hedonic(one sale is fine; regression controls for differences)
Real Estate Investment:
holding period return =
NOI - capex + ending value - beginning value / beginning value
Real Estate Investment:
MBS —> rate increase means duration
increases
Real Estate Investment:
Cost Approach Property Value =
building replacement cost + land value - depreciation
Econ:
labor productivity =
TFP + Capital deepening
Econ:
Club convergence:
only countries with proper institutions converge toward rich country income levels
Econ:
conditional convergence:
Converge if they have the same savings rate, population growth rate, and technology
Econ:
Absolute convergence:
all developing countries catch up regardless of differences
Econ:
Scale effect:
larger markets allow greater economies of scale
Econ:
Backwardness effect:
Poorer countries catch up through knowledge spillovers and tech adoption
Econ:
Classical growth theory:
GDP per capita growth is temporary; higher income results in population growth causing a return to subsistence level
Econ:
Neoclassical growth theory
diminishing returns to capital; exogenous technology; supports convergence; free trade speeds up convergence, but doesn’t permanently increase steady-state growth rate
Econ:
Endogenous growth theory
internal technology/knowledge improvements can fuel long run growth; selection effect; scale effect; backwardness effect
Econ:
Higher potential GDP growth —>
Higher real interest rates
Econ:
Solow GDP Growth accounting equation - GDP growth =
TFP growth + (capital elasticity * capital growth) + (labor elasticity * labor/population growth)
Econ:
In the neoclassical model, as a country approaches its steady state, capital deepening…
Approaches 0
Econ:
Substantive laws:
Define people’s rights, duties, and obligations
Econ:
Cobb-Douglas Production Function: economic output =
technology * (capital ^ capital share of output) * (labor ^ labor share of output)
Econ:
Cobb-Douglas production function insights
diminishing returns to capital individually; constant returns to scale when all inputs increase together
Econ:
Open trade encourages more…
Domestic r&d
Failure of a major financial institution can threaten the broader financial system
Systemic risk
Financial problems spread from one institution/market/economy to others
financial contagion
Basel III 3 pillars
Minimum capital requirement; minimum liquidity requirement; stable funding requirement
Basel III Minimum capital requirement
Requires banks to hold equity against risk-weighted assets
Basel III minimum liquidity requirement
Hold enough high quality liquid assets to survive a 30-day stress period
Basel III stable funding requirement
Maintain sufficient stable funding over a 1 year horizon
CAMELS framework
Capital adequacy, asset quality, management, earnings. Liquidity, sensitivity to market risk
FSA:
P&C insurers: loss ratio =
losses + loss adjustment expenses / net premiums earned
FSA:
A lower loss ratio indicates …
Greater success in estimating insured risks
FSA:
P&C insurers: underwriting expense ratio =
underwriting expenses / net premiums written
FSA:
P&C insurers: combined ratio =
loss ratio + underwriting expense ratio; less than 100% indicates underwriting profit
FSA:
Net benefit plan obligation decreasing:
Is good because the obligation is less underfunded
FSA:
Capital Adequacy: Three Key Capital Ratios
common equity tier 1 capital; tier 1 capital; total capital
FSA:
If short term interest rates surprisingly increase, banks’ net interest margin will most likely …
Decrease
FSA:
Higher trading incomes results in …
Lower quality of earnings
FSA:
These 2 activities provide more sustainable earnings than trading:
service income; net interest income
FSA:
Capital Adequacy Requirements: Common Equity Tier 1 / RWA >=
4.5%
FSA:
Capital Adequacy Requirements: Tier 1 Capital / RWA >=
6%
FSA:
Capital Adequacy Requirements: Total Capital / RWA >=
8%
FSA:
Depository institutions that function like banks and offer many of the same services as banks; owned by their members; organized as non-profits; don’t pay income tax
credit unions; cooperative and mutual banks
FSA:
originate, sell, and service mortgages; are usually active participants in the securitization markets
mortgage bank
FSA:
depository institutions that specialize in financing long-term residential mortgages
savings and loan association
FSA:
Insurance category that is largely international
Reinsurance
FSA:
Insurance: hard market -
tighter underwriting; higher premiums; higher profitability
FSA:
Insurance: soft market -
heavy competition; lower premiums; lower profitability
FSA:
Basel III Enhancements:
increased level of equity funding of risk-weighted assets; increased stable funding from deposits
FSA:
Bank assets are predominantly measured at:
Fair market value
FSA:
What accounting standards do insurance companies follow?
Statutory accounting rules that differ from GAAP and IFRS
FSA:
Fixed income assets =
Debt securities + loans and deposits
FSA:
When banks borrow short term and lend long term
Maturity transformation