Pubh 6011 Climate change and health

Ozone Health Effects

• Airway reactivity is greatest in people with asthma

• Effect is greatest 24-48 hours after exposure

• Symptoms: Coughing, chest tightness, difficult breathing

• Increased susceptibility to infection and allergens

Long term ozone exposure can lead to

• Cardiovascular disease, lung disease, premature death

• Some studies suggest association with cognitive decline and an increase in pre-term births

respiratory hospital admissions by daily maximum ozone layer graph

This graphic is from an epidemiology study by Burnett from Environment Canada

• Vertical axis are respiratory hospital admissions; horizontal axis are ozone concentrations in ppm

• Shows that hospital admissions for all respiratory causes were higher following days when ozone levels are high

• Even though the total number of hospital admissions are small this illustrates the lack of a threshold for effects even at very low levels of ozone

ozone trends

Ozone has been coming down nationally over time but still lots of areas in non-attainment for ozone

ozone thinning culprit

Chlorofluorocarbons (CFC)

• brand name: Freon

• used in foam manufacturing, aerosol sprays, air conditioners, refrigerators

When were CFCs banned

With 180 countries signing the Montreal Protocol of 1987, the world banned CFCs

• however, In 2018, it was discovered that someone in Eastern China started to illegally manufacture CFC-11 for insulating foam – it started back down again as soon as word got out

ozone hole in Antarctica shows

• signs of repair and should be fully recovered by 2060 

• In reality, stratospheric ozone was thinning all over the planet

• Ozone is naturally thinnest over the poles and thinning by CFC was most severe over Antarctica giving rise to the phrase “hole in the ozone layer”.

1987 Montreal Protocol Phases

• phased out CFCs in several stages basically removing chlorine from the molecule

When was the AIM act passed and what did it do

In Dec 2020, Congress passed the AIM Act (American Innovation & Manufacturing) instructing EPA to phases down HFC production and maximize reclamation from equipment

Oxides of sulfur (SOx)

• Comes almost entirely from coal

• Acid rain - acidifies lakes – fish kills

• Eats away at concrete buildings, statues etc.

• Bad for agriculture

• Irritant to lungs

• Low sulfur coal, air scrubbers dramatically reduced SOx emissions

Carbon Monoxide

• CO is result of inefficient combustion (should go to CO2)

• CO binds very tightly with hemoglobin in red blood cells

• Hemoglobin is what carries O2 to your tissues

• CO blocks hemoglobin receptor sites and red blood cells cant carry O2

• If concentration is high enough – chemical asphyxiation

Lead is a ___

Neurotoxin- especially bad for children/infants; there is no safe level of lead

US and Lead progress

• US started adding lead to “premium” gasoline in 1922 – public health concerns were immediate but ignored

• Powerful lobby group called Lead Industries Association was very active from 1920s to 1970s.

• 1970 – EPA was established

• 1977 - EPA phased in a ban on lead in gasoline

• 1978 - ban on lead in paint

• 1986 - lead in pipes was banned

•  1991 - requiring testing for lead at the tap

• Note: until 2014, you could call a fixture “lead free” as long as it contained less than 8% lead by weight !
  

lead exposure has been associated with

violence, lower IQ, and many other health effects

SOx, CO and Lead trends

SOx reduction is dramatic. CO and Lead have also come down. Lead is still emitted with incinerators, coal plants etc.

Mercury

• Mercury (Hg) vapor —> from coal burning

• Bioaccumulates in organisms

• Biomagnifies up the food chain

Methyl Mercury (MeHg)

• Age and size of the fish and the type of water body is key

• Highest in shark, swordfish, marlin, walleye, LM Bass, Northern Pike

• Readily crosses the blood-brain barrier and the placenta

• Decreased IQ, language skills, memory and attention deficit

• Higher risk of cardiovascular disease including heart attack

• Minamata – horrific Hg poisoning of Japanese village

climate change facts

1. CO2 in the atmosphere warms a planet

2. We emit ~40 billion tons of CO2/year

3. Our planet is warming

Chemicals that are greenhouse gases

• water vapor (we have little control over)

• Nitrous Oxide (lasts 100 years in atmosphere

• Methane (CH4) lasts 10-20 years in atmosphere

• Carbon Dioxide (lasts 100s years in atmosphere)

in recent years, humans emit ___ tons of CO2 per year

40 billion

• mostly comes from fossil fuels (coal, oil, natural gas)

CO2 concentration in atmosphere vs human CO2 emissions

• both increasing; but oceans have absorbed a lot of CO2

best global CO2 measurements are taken where?

Mauna Loa, Hawaii because it is the highest point and very cold

• CO2 at preindustrial age was ~300 ppm; today we’re near 420 ppm

the earth has warmed ___ degrees since preindustrial days

1.5 deg C; trying to keep it well below 2 deg C

• preindustrial (before 1880 before burning of fossil fuels

how we measure climate and greenhouse gases

• vostok ice core data

  • vostok, antartica ice core drilling begain in 70s

  • represents 440,000 years (4 ice age cycles)

  • gas bubbles in the ice tells us methane and CO2 concentration through time, but also tells us temperature of the earth

fossil fuels and CO2 levels

With fossil fuel we are pushing CO2 to levels never seen in the last 2 million years

gas hydrates forms when

when methane is present in cold water under high pressure – and there is a lot of it

• methane (which is a greenhouse gas) released from arctic ocean could cause very abrupt climate change by getting into the atmosphere

As we lose global ice ___

the earths albedo is reduced which means the earth absorbs more heat – warming is reinforced

• as we lose ice, the white area reflects a lot of the suns energy, but a black ocean will absorb the energy; which reduces earths albedo

Feb 2014 climate disaster

You can have heatwaves in one location and extreme cold in another

• Flooding in UK but Sochi winter olympics hits 65 degrees F

polar vortex

• the reason why we are getting colder winter

• the polar easterlies is held together by the jet stream created by temp difference between mid latitude cell (warmer) and polar cell (cold)

• the jet stream keeps The polar vortex spinning, which is the extremely cold polar air spinning like a top at the North Pole

• the spinning cell is getting slower because the polar cell is getting warmer

disruptive force in the arctic

arctic ice is melting more so on the one side of the Arctic setting up a humidified high pressure system on one side and a dry low pressure on the other – disrupting the spin of the polar vortex

health impacts of climate change

• civil conflict

• storms

• disease transmission

• illness, injury

• food supply

• heat

• air pollution

Heatwaves mortality

• Excessive heat kills more people each year than floods, lightning, tornadoes and hurricanes combined. (NOAA)

  • Europe 2003 – 35,000 deaths, 14,000 in France alone

  • Russia 2010 – 56,000 die from heat wave + smoke, smog inhalation

many occupations cannot escape heat waves

• agricultural workers

• construction

• firefighters

• police

biology of a heat wave

• Metabolism – working hard increases internal heat

• High Humidity – evaporation is compromised

• Overweight – extra weight hurts the ability to het rid of heat

• Age – older peoples circulation is less efficient – more vulnerable

• Medications – certain meds, alcohol, smoking – more vulnerable

• Protective clothing – (e.g. bullet proof vest) can add heat

• Stresses the heart – extra blood diverts through skin to cool

How greenhouse gasses work

• incoming radiation from the sun

  • a lot of UV gets blocked

  • visible light gets through

• outgoing radiation from the earth

  • gets sent back out to space

  • but all the chemicals that make up the atmosphere blocks a little of it and traps it into the earth

the temperature and CO2 concentration cap agreed to in the 2015 Paris Agreement and the structure of the Paris Agreement

well below 2-degree Celsius

heat exhaustion vs heat stroke

• heat exhaustion:

  • faint or dizzy, excessive sweating, pale skin, nausea or vomiting, rapid and weak pulse, muscle cramps

    • get to an air conditioned spaced, drink water if fully conscious, take a cool shower

  • heat stroke

    • throbbing headache, no sweating, body temp above 103, hot and dry skin, nausea or vomiting, rapid strong pulse, may lose consciousness

      • call 911

Dry season strategy

Three-step Energy Strategy:

• Reduce Demand

  • Increase our energy efficiency and awareness of the need to reduce our energy consumption

• Increase Supply

  • Research, test and certify new technologies, as well as renewable and sustainable resources in order to create new domestic sources of supply

• Cultural Change

  • Create a culture where all Airmen make energy a consideration in everything we do.  This strategy balances demand-side energy efficiency measures with a long-term commitment to supply-side alternative energy sources. 

To accomplish our vision, the Air Force is working hand-in-hand on our energy strategy in partnership with other government agencies and the private sector.

Are droughts getting better or worse?

Droughts getting much more severe – concentrates bacteria and toxins in remaining water, more insect diseases, more PM exposure from dust

negative effects of droughts

• Droughts increase wind blown dust – increases in Coccidioidomycosis has been observed (Valley Fever)

• Drought and heat also weakens trees —> insect infestation

California is getting ___

CA is getting hotter AND drier in more recent years

dangers of wildfires

• smoke inhalation

• smoke is an air pollutant filled with particles, Carbon Dioxide, Nitrogen Dioxide, and Hydrocarbons

• extreme fires kill growth crown and seed bank making it very difficult for the area to regrow

what are fire adapted trees

• can withstand moderate forest fires

• tree grows low to ground then quickly bolts to protect growth crown

• thick bark to protect living tissue

• resin on pine cone melts with mild fires to allow seeds to germinate

defensible space

The main idea: Removing flammable material and creating gaps around a home slows fire spread and improves the home’s chances of surviving a wildfire.

100-foot area around the house where vegetation and other flammable materials should be managed:

• Cut dry grass: Dry grass burns easily. The slide recommends mowing during cool, moist conditions because mowers can start fires.

• Space trees apart: This makes it harder for fire to spread from one tree to another.

• Remove lower branches up to 10 feet: Low branches act as a “fire ladder,” allowing flames to climb from grass and shrubs into treetops.

• Keep branches at least 10 feet from the roof and chimney: This reduces the chance of fire reaching the house.

• Clean the roof and rain gutters: Dry leaves and needles can catch fire from windblown embers.

• Space and maintain fire-resistant plants: Gaps between plants interrupt the path fire can follow. Fire-resistant plants can still burn.

climate impacts varying

Climate Impacts are highly varied depending on location. Preparing for climate change is a local/regional issue.

• in 2023, there were 28 separate disasters in the U.S

Climate change and storms

• superstorms are getting more violent

• however, we have better warning systems and better buildings

Climate change and flooding

• heavies rains are even heavier (from 1950-present)

• warmer air means more rain, but it is not evenly distributed

negative health effects of flooding

• Chemical/fuel released to surface waters

• Unsafe drinking water

• Waterborne diseases spike after floods

• Minor Infections can become very serious

how does sea rise?

• Sea rises from the expansion of seawater and melting ice on land

• also rises from warming:

  • There is a high likelihood that Miami, FL and the Florida Keys will be under water before the end of the century.

How much of the US population live close to costal shorelines?

40%

causes of land subsidence

• human activities, with groundwater withdrawals responsible for 80% of land subsidence

• mostly in Chesapeake Bay region

ocean acidification

• As more CO2 is dissolved in seawater – water gets more acidic

• The acidity dissolves the calcium carbonate on shellfish and coral

• Shellfish numbers are dropping – a major global food source

we get an ice age every ____ years

100,000 through orbital shifts when earth is further away from the sun

temperature and CO2 are well correlated

ocean temperatures can hold more CO2 when colder and release a lot when it warms up

record breaking cold

• We are seeing more record breaking versus cold by 2:1 but we still see record cold

• But we are also seeing more variability

slowing of the jet steam

in the northern hemisphere’s winter, the polar vortex naturally expands, but now we are seeing a slowing of the jet stream