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Is extinction natural?
Yes
What is natural and unnatural about extinction?
Speciation can be caused by natural disasters; the RATE of extinction due to humans is too rapid
how many mass extinction events have there been?
5
when did dinosaurs go extinct?
End of Cretaceous era
we are currently entering the __th mass extinction
6
extinction rate
the number of extinctions per year per species
unit for extinction rate
MSY (per million species-years)
how can you interpret 1E/MSY “one extinction per million species-years”?
if we had a million species, we should expect one extinction per year
if we had 10,000 species, we should expect __ extinction(s) per 100 years
1
based on the fossil record, what is the background rate?
1-2 E/MSY
number of extinctions is __% higher than predicted
53%
how many vertebrate extinctions were expected since 1900?
9
modern extinction rates for vertebrates is __-__ times higher than the background rate
24-100
defaunation
general decline in abundance of survivors
causes of population decline and extinction
changing climate
land use change
overexploitation
invasive species
infectious disease
Arrhenius, 1896
asked “why is the temperature of the Earth so suitable for humans and animals?”
Greenhouse Gases (GHGs)
CO2, CH4, N2O, CFCs
Greenhouse gas effect
a natural process that enables life on Earth to fluorish; GHGs trap heat
why is the world warming?
human activity is causing elevated concentrations of GHGs in the atmosphere
how much warmer are the land and sea compared to pre-industrial era?
~0.9C / 1/6F
which years were the hottest years recorded?
2016 and 2020
lag effect
even if emissions/GHG concentrations were to cease to increase immediately, some warming will happen; lag between emission level and trapping of heat
effects of global warming on the physical environment
-melting ice
-sea level rise
-extreme drought and rainfall
-more powerful storms
-ocean acidification
-positive feedback loops
sea ice
frozen ocean water
sea ice covers ~___ of the Earth
25 million km²
what is happening to sea ice as climate changes?
declining in extent and volume
glaciers
perennial ice originating on land
glaciers cover ~__ of the Earth
706,000 km²
what is happening to glaciers as climate warms?
retreating around the world; could disappear in some mountain ranges this century
major continental ice sheets
Antarctica and Greenland
Antarctica covers ~___ of the Earth
14.2 million km²
Greenland covers ~___ of the Earth
2.2 million km²
what is happening to continental ice sheets as climate warms?
reduction in mass of major basins
how much has sea level risen since 1880?
21-24 cm / 8-9 inches
why has sea level risen?
melting glaciers and ice sheets, thermal expansion from warming water
what is an endangered historic place due to sea level rise?
The Tidal Basin, D.C.
sea level is projected to rise at least __ over the next 100 years
1m
__% of the U.S. population lives within 50 miles of the coast
52
annual average precipitation has generally increased in the ___ and decreased in the ___
East; West
how much will precipitation increase on the wettest day of the year?
5-15%
negative effects of long dry spells
hardened soil reduces ability to absorb water, leading to damaging flash flooding; major implications for biodiversity, food production, infrastructure
T or F: warmer atmospheres increase energy for storms
TRUE
largest and strongest hurricanes recorded in history (cat. 5)
Hurricanes Irma and Maria (2017)
what is ocean acidification?
CO2 → carbonic acid
T or F: increased CO2 absorption makes oceans more acidic
TRUE
how many pH units has the ocean increased by since pre-industrial?
0.1
how much more acid is in the oceans?
30%
the runaway greenhouse effect is an example of
positive feedback loops
positive feedback loops
when the product of a reaction increases the effect of the reaction
examples of runaway greenhouse effects
albedo effect, melting permafrost, wildfires
albedo effect on ice
melting ice, more dark space/less ice reflection, sea absorbs more radiation, more ice melts
melting permafrost
permafrost melts, releases stored carbon, increased GHGs, more permafrost melts
wildfires positive feedback loop
snow melts earlier leading to longer summers and dryer environments, fires release carbon, increase GHGs, more warming
what geographical areas are most vulnerable to the physical effect of changing climate?
-peninsulas (sea-level rise)
-vast areas that are dry
-developed countries that increase CO2 emissions
-Arctic/Antarctic (ice melting → habitat loss)
-coastal areas
-low-lying areas
-drought/flood prone areas
how can organisms respond to climate change?
change physiology, phenology, distribution; or adapt in situ
oceans have warmed more than __
1 degree C
how are species distributions changing (marine)?
moving poleward
how are species distributions changing (terrestrial)
moving poleward and up in altitude/upward range movement across taxonomic groups
examples of species moving up mountains
birds, invertebrates, reptiles, amphibians
examples of physiological effects
acidification changes calcification rate and compromises growth and skeletal strength in marine species
what are the shells and skeletons of marine species made of?
calcium carbonate
T or F: if the oceans get too acidic, calcium carbonate shells and skeletons may just dissolve
TRUE
ecototherms
metabolic rates are dictated by ambient temperatures
oxygen limitation hypothesis
higher temps increase oxygen demand and heart rate, but reduce blood oxygen; anaerobic metabolism kicks in, leading to a build-up of waste products
phenology
timing of seasonal activities
T or F: small, insectivorous bird species are nesting and laying their eggs later
FALSE; earlier
T or F: many migratory birds are changing their migration times or ceasing to migrate
TRUE
T or F: many plant species are budding and flowering later in the spring
FALSE; earlier
behavioral adaptations in situ
change in timing of activity to mitigate rise in temperature (diurnal → nocturnal), or duration of activity to mitigate food availability (forage longer)
genetic changes to adapt in situ
reduced body size and/or resistance to anaerobic end products to mitigate metabolic effects from rising temperature
how might climate warming change species interactions?
-rising temps decouples mutualism between coral and algae, leading to coral bleaching
-mismatch cues
mismatched cues example
birds feed caterpillars to nestlings; but now caterpillar food supply buds too early, doesn’t match with time that nestlings hatch
which species are particularly vulnerable to extinctions?
species that occur at poles, species that occur at high altitudes, low-lying island species (endemic)
example of species that occur at poles
emperor penguins (severe range contractions and population declines)
example of species that occur at high altitudes
American pika extirpation from the ~12 populations in the rocky mountains
T or F: biological communities do not respond as a unit
TRUE; individual species respond at their own rate and in their own direction
T or F: surviving species will assemble into new ecosystem configurations
TRUE
example of effects on phenology (in-class discussion)
Snowshoe hare color molts - coat turns at a different time of the year, exposing them to predators
actions to mitigate changing climate
-new technologies to reduce emissions
-reforestation
-eat less meat
new tech to reduce emissions
less reliance on fossil fuels and investment in renewable energy
reforestation
~1 billion ha of land outside urban and agricultural areas could be converted to forest, storing 205 gigatons of carbon; ~25% of the CO2 currently in the atmosphere would be absorbed
eat less meat
reduce emissions from large scale agriculture
4 categories of strategies to mitigate ecological effects
land and water protection and management
direct species management
monitoring and planning
law and policy
land and water protection and management
-increase extent of protected areas
-protect and restore core habitat of threatened species
-suite of legal tools for this, utilized by governmental and non-governmental organizations
-smart reserve design to facilitate range shifts
-create new habitat
T or F: larger populations means more resilience
TRUE; more potential for adaptation to changes in climate
__ networks may fail to achieve original objectives in future ecosystems
static
smart reserves
create reserves with a natural elevational gradient (species can colonize uphill); protect movement corridors, stepping stones, and refugia (areas with minimal climate impacts)
example of creating new habitat
“bird islands” from dredged sediment offsets climate-driven habitat loss among the Atlantic Coast
direct species management
-focus resources on species that might become extinct
-translocate species at risk of extinction
-establish captive populations of species that would otherwise go extinct (zoos)
-reduce pressures on species from sources other than climate
translocation
assisted migration - move species to areas with suitable conditions under new projected climates
what is the challenge with assisted migration?
difficult to predict optimal locations for assisted dispersal; concern over potential for transplanted species to have negative consequences in their new range (invasion)
reduce pressures on species from sources other than climate
-reduce negative synergies with climate
-give species the max. flexibility to evolve responses to changing climates
(this may be the only practical large-scale adaptation policy for marine systems)
dynamic management
we need to apply novel and innovative ways to increase biodiversity to meet the unprecedented challenges posed by changing climate change
world leader of mammal extinctions
Australia
how many mammal extinctions have there been in Australia since settlement in 1788?
38 (1-2 extinctions per decade)
by how much has the critically endangered species number increased?
80%
by how much has the endangered species number increased?
50%
by how much has the vulnerable species number increased?
30%
what is the “critical weight range” in Australia?
35 g - 5.5 kg
where do species persist in Australia?
islands, intensively managed fenced areas