Pols 231 Midterm Review

What are the interests of Iran in the strait of Hormuz conflict?

• Authority over traffic in the strait and prestige for its role in this region

• Monetary: Income from fees to support the regime's survival and broader economy

The conflict in the strait fits the interaction type of bargaining. Iran attacks several of the other actors involved including Oman for trying to open an alternative corridor to transit the the straits. What term describes the Iranian approach to "get their way" in this bargaining scenario?

Coercion

The article describes actions initiated by actors like Oman and others to "work around" the closure of the straits, not be depended on Iran and ensure tankers can still transit the straits. This is an element that should help in having an edge this bargaining scenario, what is it?

Outside options: Find an alternate route to transit

The article offer a solution to the crisis focusing on the Gulf states. What are some of the elements of this proposal? 

• Cooperation of Gulf states to find diplomatic solution with Iran

• Coalition led by Qatar and Oman to directly bargain with Iran and solve the crisis

The Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE) is an international organization with 57 member states. As one of its missions, the OSCE currently maintains an office in Albania that helps the Albanian government reform its electoral code, train the country's central election commission, and monitor elections. If you wanted to understand why the OSCE conducts election monitoring in Albania, what question would you most likely ask first?

Who are the actors involved in determining the OSCE mission, and what are their interests?

The concept of state sovereignty can be traced back in part to the 1648 Peace of Westphalia and is one of the institutions that underpins world politics in the modern era. Which of the following are core elements of state sovereignty?

• The sovereign possesses ultimate authority over the people and territory.

• Sovereignty is absolute and cannot be challenged by outside nations

In the description of different games and the incentives players face to adopt a "tit for tat" strategy, the author refers to a concept we discussed as critical to foster cooperation, which concept is that?

Iteration / repetition

The author discusses a strategy within game theory calling to "leave money on the table" as it helps build trust when interacting with another actor. What concept we discussed in class do you project when choosing to adopt such behavior?

Credibility

The Mars Climate Orbiter was lost in 1999 when it came too close to Mars as it tried to maneuver into orbit and was destroyed by the planet's atmosphere. An investigation determined that the calculation error was a result of NASA scientists using metric units of measurement while a contractor used English system units. The loss cost NASA millions, and the contractor was embarrassed. This is an example of a failure of what?

Coordination

Even when cooperation is beneficial to the actors involved, several factors can make cooperation difficult. It will be easier for the three countries of North America to cooperate and find a way to eliminate tariffs on trade within the continent than the 54 African countries trying to do the same thing.

T/F

True

Two neighboring countries cooperate in policing their borders, have a trade agreement together, and preside over joint military trainings. Because there are multiple issues involved, it increases the chances that trade-offs can be made across these areas. This demonstrates what concept?

Linkage

How do international institutions affect cooperation among states?

• by providing information about members' compliance with the rules

• by making it easier to make decisions collectively

• by providing mechanisms for resolving disagreements

The International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) sends staff into member states to inspect nuclear facilities and to ensure that nuclear energy is being used for peaceful, and not militaristic, ends. This is an example of how international institutions can help verify compliance.

T/F

True

During the height of the Cold War both the Soviet Union and the United States had tens of thousands of nuclear warheads—far more than either side needed for its own security. Both sides would have been better off with fewer warheads, but each side had an incentive to cheat on any such agreements. What is this is an example of?

 

The prisoner's dilemma

Imagine that, in collaboration with the United States, South Korea decides to install an antiballistic missile defense shield. China threatens to bomb the installation to prevent the system from becoming operational. In this scenario, what term best describes China's action?

 

Coercive diplomacy

Based on the article, the war in Ukraine may escalate or become difficult to resolve due to increased access of the Ukrainian military to advanced satellite technology. What concept that we discussed does this scenario illustrates as a potential cause for war? 

 

Information gaps / advantages

Even when a bargain exists that both sides would prefer to war, several types of problems can lead to war. The Prisoner's Dilemma illustrates one of these problems. Which one?

 

Commitment problem

South Korea and North Korea are in conflict over political control of the Korean peninsula. South Korea and its powerful ally, the United States, hold joint military exercises in South Korea. North Korea then tests four ballistic missiles, firing them into the Sea of Japan. In response, South Korea asks the United States to deploy attack drones along its border with the North. North Korea then announces it has increased its nuclear arsenal from 20 warheads to 45.

What concept is best illustrated by this hypothetical scenario?

 

Security dilemma

In 1990, Iraq invaded its neighbor Kuwait. In response, U.S. President Bush stated that Iraq's invasion of Kuwait "would not stand." President Bush deployed 500,000 U.S. troops to the region and engaged in diplomacy to encourage other states to join in an attack on Iraq. The United States has a much larger economy and military than Iraq. Which of the following reasons are plausible explanations for why Saddam Hussein did not retreat?

 

• Saddam Hussein publicly committed to punishing Kuwait, and backing down would jeopardize his power.

• Saddam Hussein feared that Iran would believe Iraq could be bullied if it backed down.

The city of Jerusalem is one of the most contested pieces of territory in the world. Both Israelis and Palestinians desire Jerusalem as their capital. What makes this conflict so difficult to resolve? 

 

The placement of Al-Aqsa Mosque on top of the Temple Mount makes it difficult to divide the territory in a way that is satisfactory to both sides.

What statements are correct about nationalism?

• States often harness it to dampen domestic divisions over foreign policy

• It may be one source of the rally effect

• It motivates people to act in support of the nation and its interests

Why did the Argentine leadership decide to initiate an armed conflict with Great Britain over the Falkland Islands in 1982?

 

The Argentinian leadership wanted to create a nationalist sentiment that would help reduce domestic unrest

What statements about democracy and war are accurate?

• Democracies rarely if ever go to war with other democracies

• Democracies are just as likely to fight wars as are nondemocracies

What best describes how the concept of accountability applies to domestic politics and war?

 

it is the primary mechanism through which political institutions influence decisions about war

Which interest groups would be expected to support a shift in American foreign policy toward more cooperative political and economic relations with China?

 

• American technology companies that want to increase international sales

 

• the American solar industry, which can manufacture more cheaply with global supply chains

What is an example of entrapment?

 

While its unclear whether the British really wanted to go to war with Germany in 1914, they felt obligated to do so because of their alliance with France and Russia

Which element in the NATO treaty reflects the collective security principle of "attacks against one is attack against all"?

Article 5

What factors explain why leaders may decide not to honor an alliance commitment?

 

• Public opinion opposes sending troops to assist others 

• Interest groups pressure against committing to the alliance

Two states, Atlantis and Midgard, have long contested ownership of a section of territory between their two countries. Atlantis decides to form an alliance with Wakanda to help in its struggle with Midgard. How would this alliance change the bargaining interaction between Atlantis and Midgard relative to the status quo?

 

• Because Atlantis would pay a smaller cost to go to war, the bargaining range shifts toward Atlantis's ideal outcome

• Because of Wakanda's help in winning a likely war, the bargaining range shifts toward Atlantis's ideal outcome

• The value of a potential war to Midgard decreases.

The primary purpose of alliances is to change the bargaining outcomes to one side's favor; The primary purpose of collective security organizations is to ensure that any changes to the status quo are peaceful

T/F

True

In which kind of situation has the United Nations historically seen the most success?

Helping countries rebuild after a conflict has been resolved

What conditions are more likely to help a collective security organization succeed?

• One or more member states must value the collective good highly enough to pay the cost to achieve it.

• Powerful member states must agree to the desirability of collective action.

What was the first UN peacekeeping mission?

 Emergency forces sent during a crisis in the Middle-East (1956)

What are some of the challenges that made it hard to sustain the current model of UN mission across the globe?

• Peacekeepers have to deal with urban crime and violence related to unstable governance situations

• Limited authorization from UNSC due to conflicts in interests among members

• Domestic pressure led many countries to reduce their financial contributions to the UN

The UN intervened successfully to stop humanitarian crises in Rwanda and Darfur.

T/F

False

What scenarios are examples of pursuing alliance for the objective of bandwagoning?

• India successfully invades several neighbors. In response, other states in the region ally themselves with India.

• The Soviet Union joins Germany in a pact to split the "spoils" of conquering Poland

What are the similarities of rebel groups and terrorists?

• Having difficulty organizing individuals to engage in violence

• Being weaker than their adversaries

• Using violence for political goals

A rebel group engaged in an insurgency against the government and a terrorist network targeting civilians for political purposes are examples of what kind of warfare?

 

Asymmetric

In many instances, civil wars occur in the same geographic regions. Which of the options below explain it?

•  Risk factors of civil wars, such as low economic development, also cluster geographically.

•  Armed groups involved in civil wars often cross borders and create conflict in more than one state.

•  Civil wars can create refugee flows to neighbors that overwhelm the neighboring state's capabilities.

How does advanced technology enhanced the threats of terrorism in the 2020s?

•  Advanced technological weapons like drones used by terrorists to attack population centers

• Extensive use of the internet and AI to spread extreme ideology and recruit members

What are the correct types of bargaining failure in the context of civil wars and terrorism?

 

• Indivisibility: Terror groups refuse to compromise over an inch of disputed territory

• Incomplete Information: Terrorist networks by their very nature attempt to keep themselves and their capabilities secret.

• Commitment problems: Terrorists have no reason to trust that after a peace accord is reached the target state will not turn on them.

What separates terrorism from other criminal attacks?

 

Political goals

What are the different types of terror strategies?

• Coercion

• Provocation

• Spoiling

What factors are likely to lead to civil war?

•  Rugged terrain in a large country that is difficult for the limited state forces to patrol

• A regime that is neither fully democratic nor strongly autocratic

What statement explains the persistence of terrorism based on the logic of indivisibility?

 Some terrorist networks seek the total destruction of the target state or states.