Topic 12: Judgement and Reasoning

Attribute substitution

Relying on easily assessable info as a proxy for the info actually need.

(Eg, the info that u need to make a logical decision is the frequency of winning a lottery ticket, but the info you used if the recent lucky experiences which is the readily available info)

frequency estimate

an assessment of how often various events occurred in the past

(eg, you get all green lights and test pushed back so you think if you get a lottery ticket you'll win)

Heuristics

Cognitive shortcuts used to reason and make decisions efficiently.

Availability heuristic

Using readily available info to answer questions or make decisions quickly.

Representativeness heuristic

Judging likelihood by comparing an event, person, or object to an existing schema.

Affect heuristic

Judging risks and potential benefits based on how thinking about the outcome feels.

Effort heuristic

Judging value estimates based on how much effort was spent to gain the outcome.

Gambler's fallacy

Reasoning that random outcomes can be affected by previous outcomes or are self-correcting.

(eg, flipping a coin and it lands of head 6 times, you think it must be tails next since its 'overdue')

The 'man who' argument

Trying to refute a statistical trend by citing a single, isolated personal anecdote.

Covariation

Statistical term where 2 or more things change or happen together in a related way.

(eg, everyone is late because of an accident (blame the situation) one person is late and always is (blame the person)

Base rate

rate of occurrence for an event over4 a long period of time

Base-rate neglect

Failing to adequately consider the general prevalence of an event when evaluating probability of specific outcomes, and focus on specific details about a single case.

(Eg, told that "Alex is shy, loves to read poetry, and likes working alone." Asked if he is a librarian or teacher. Think librarian since he fits the stereotype despite there being vastly more teachers and more likely to be one.

Confirmation bias

Tendency to favor info aligning with pre-existing beliefs while ignoring contradicting evidence.

Dual Processing Model

Suggests there are two types of thinking

Type 1 thinking

Fast, automatic processing impacted by heuristics and emotions.

(For most decisions to be fast and efficient)

Type 2 thinking

Controlled, deliberate, analytical, and logical processing.

(resort to for more important decisions)

Deduction

process where we use top-down processing to draw conclusions about events, experiences, objects, etc…

Wason four-card task

Deductive reasoning test.

(Presented with four cards, and a rule about the cards. They then have to indicate the minimum number of cards that need to be Investigated to assess if the rules are being followed and which cards need to be)

Belief perseverance

Clinging to beliefs even when disconfirming evidence is undeniable.

Utility maximizing

Making decisions that bring as much value as possible.

Framing of outcomes

How the wording of a choice's results impacts the decision made.

Affective forecasting

Predicting future emotions, often overestimating their intensity and duration.

Somatic markers

Bodily responses elicited by memories that help evaluate decision options.

Risk seeking

tends to happen if the framing of a decision casts a choice in terms of losses, bc we are attracted to the idea that maybe we can avoid a loss

Risk aversion

tends to happen if a decision is framed in terms of gaining, we refuse to gamble the loss of what we already have.