Test 6 Intro to logic

dear god please help me

What is “probability?”

We can think of ______ as how likely it is that something is (or will be) true, given a particular body of evidence

Why is important to understand “probability” when using formal methods of evaluating inductive arguments?

because it provides the basis for formal methods of evaluating inductive arguments. While there is no universally agreed upon method of evaluating inductive arguments in the way there is with deductive arguments, there are some basic laws of probability that it is important to keep in mind. 

What is a “conjunction? fallacy?

a _____ _______ relates to a conjunction because a conjunction causes the fallacy to make people believe something is true based off an assumption of probability

describe the “base rate fallacy.”

so the test rate for colon cancer to see if u have it is 95% and theres a 5% people are misdiagnosed

so if you believe you are 95% likely to have colon cancer you are wrong because you aren't considering

the small population of people that actually have colon cancer. we must temper that figure with the very low base rate

What is a “false positive?

A false positive occurs when a test registers that some feature is present, when the feature isn’t really present.

How does a “false positive” relate to the “base rate fallacy?

well if the test is 95% accurate and 5% of those people are diagnosed then that would be the false positive

and the 95% is the base rate so that would be the fallacy is that people confuse it

What is the “law of small numbers?”

smaller groups will tend towards the extremes in terms of their possession of some feature, relative to larger groups.

How does the “law of small numbers” relate to the “small numbers fallacy?”

A sample that is too small will tend not to be representative of the population

The small numbers fallacy is our tendency to seek a causal explanation for some phenomenon when only the law of small numbers is needed to explain that phenomenon.

How is the “small numbers fallacy” similar to the “hasty generalization fallacy”

they both rely on something being true without enough evidence, they assume something

is true based off either a bad example or a generalization.

What is the “regression to the mean?”

i have a cold and take cold medicine, in a few days i am all better and assume it was because of the medicine and not because everybody just gets better with a cold. (“the tendency of things to go back to normal or to return to something close to the relevant statistical average.”)

How does “regression to the mean” relate to the “regression to mean fallacy?

humans are likely to see a cause even when one isn't present, so this carries over to the fallacy,

 one commits the regression to the mean fallacy when one tries to give a causal explanation of a phenomenon that is merely statistical or probabilistic in nature.

How is the “regression to the mean fallacy” similar to the “false cause fallacy”

he regression to the mean fallacy is more statistical, while the false cause fallacy is more like something happened so they must be true.

What is the “gambler’s fallacy?”

The gambler’s fallacy occurs when one thinks that independent, random events can be influenced by each other.

How is the “gambler’s fallacy” similar to the “small numbers fallacy”

they both do not understand or falsely misunderstand probabilities and assume. small numbers makes generalizations while gamblers fantasy believes in a false connection in two events.