Politics Exam

Short Term Causes of climate change

Fossil Fuel extraction and burning

defrostation and land-use change

agricultural and food systems

What are fossil fuels

Fuels formed from the fossilised remains of organic material such as plants and animals that lived billions of years ago, including coal, oil and gas

Why have fossil fuels been significant

They have been a major power source since the Industrial Revolution and have been essential to industrialsation and development

What happens when fossil fuels are burned

They released Carbon Dioxide (CO2)

Why are forests described as ‘carbon sinks’

Tress absord Co2 from the atmosphere through photosynthesis, storing carbon in vegetation and soils

What is deforestation

the change from a forested to a non-forested state, storing stored CO2, into the atmosphere

mainly drived by agricultural expansion

factors that contribute to deforestation

infrastrucutre building

logging

wildfires

deforestation front

A WWF term for regions where deforestation is currently concentrated and accelerating, or is at imminent risk of large-scale deforestation

Amazon, Congo Basin and Borneo are key locations of this

how does WWF measure annual forest loss

Through Hansen/Global Forest watch measures using remote spatial technology to detect changes from forest to non-forest at around 30m tree-canopy resolution

Proportion of global emissions from agricultural and food system

26%

proportion of human casued global emissions from agriculture and food processing

30% (UN Food and Agriculture Organisation)

Greenhouse gases associated with agriculture and good processing

CO2

Methane

Nitrous Oxide

Why are agriculture-related emissions expected to grow?

Rising demand for food as the global population increases unless food systems are transformed

Why has climate change become increasingly pressing for the international community?

More states are experiencing serious economic, social and environmental consequences

Why does climate change require international cooperation

transcends national borders, meaning no individual state can resolve it alone

what makes climate change contentious

disagreement over its causes, significance and the most effective and fair solutions

misinformation

incorrect information

disinformation

intentionally misleading or fake information

How do greenhouse gases contribute to global warming

they thicken the atmosphere and trap the sun’s energy, increasing Earth’s surface temperature

What is happening to emissions in developed versus developing states

emissions have peaked in many developed states, while emissions in developing states continue to grow rapidly

ethical questions sparked by different states’ historical emissions

whether states should be held responsible for their previous contribution to climate change

whether underdevloped states should be allowed to continue emitting while seeking development

UNSW research about Earth’s atmosphere

the atmosphere was trapping more heat than climate model had forecast, with the rate of increase doubling over the past 20 years

How does global connectedness support green technology

Technology transfer and innovation facilitate the creation and spread of technologies such as solar panels and electric vehicles

How has global trade helped renewable energy

dramatically reduced the cost of renewable energy

How does global connectedness encourage global climate agreements

Greater awareness and interconnectedness have stimulated international agreements aimed at aligning global finance with low-carbon development

How does global finance help developing countries respond to climate change

it supports investment in sustainable infrastructure and climate adaption

How does transportation contribute to climate change through global connectedness

the long-distace transport of goods by air, sea and land creates significant greenhouse gas emissions

carbon leakage

when strict environmental regulations in developed states encourage companies to relocate production to developing countries with weaker environmental regulations

how can economic specialisation contribute to deforestation

regions may specialise in agricultural exports, encouraging deforestation for cattle ranching, agriculture and raw materials

how can industrialsation in developing nations increase emissions

developing states often pursue higher living standard using a Western consumption model, increasing industrialisation and total carbon emissions

Major climate legislation passed by USA in 2022

The Inflation Reduction Act (2022)

Inflation Reduction Act 2022

the largest/significant climate investment in US history, providing hundred of billions of dollars for clean energy, EV incentves and green technology

Why is US climate policy described as a ‘rollercoaster’

Climate policy has been highly unstable and inconsistent over roughly 25 years

historical reduction in air and water pollution, involvement in global climate negotiations and strong periods of climate action under Obama/Biden compared to the repealing of many regulation and expansion of fossil fuel under Trump

Climate Action Tracker rating under Trump

“Critically insufficent”, aligned with warming of more than 4 degrees

Why is US climate policy less consistent than other states

extreme policy swings between presidents, fossil-fuel lobbying, ideological opposition and withdrawal from international institutions

climate target for Australia

62-70% below 2005 emission levels by 2035

Australia’s Safeguard Mechanism (2023)

imposes binding pollution limits on major emitters

binding limits set on 215 major polluters and approximately 5% annual emissions reduction until 2030, with options involving carbon credits or low-emission technology investment

What does Australia’s Climate Change 2022 legislate

net zero emissions by 2050

What was introduced by Australia’s 2011 Clean Energy Act

a carbon pricing scheme

Major limitations of Australia’s climate response

high per-capita emissions, policy instability, heavy dependence on coal and gas exports, slower renewable transition than some European states, and criticism that the Safeguard Mechanism permits too many offsets

why does Australia find climate policy difficuly politically

its economy is deeply connected to fossil-fuel exports, climate policy is politically polarised and leadership changed can distrupt long-term planning

One reason Australia can struggle to respond as quickly as desired

economic dependence on fossil-fuel exports creates competing national interests

Positive Climate Response from China

Massive investment in renewables, EVs and battery manufacturing, together with a commitment to peak emissions before 2030 and reach carbon neutrality later

Largest inestor in renewable energy and a major producer of solar panels and EV batteries

China’s carbon neutrality target

2060

China’s main climate limitations

Remains world’s largest greenhouse-gas emitter

continues approving coal-fired power plants

has a carbon-intensive heavy industry sector

Why can China struggle to make rapid emissions cuts

economic growth and energy security are prioritised, coal remains important for grid stability, and international pressure has limited influence

What does China’s NDC aim to achieve by 2030

peak carbon emissions, recduce CO2 emissions per unit of GDP by more than 65% from 2005 levels and increase non-fossile energy to around 25% of primary energy consumption

What is the UNFCCC

United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change, the major UN framework for international cooperation on climate change

When was the UNFCCC established

1992

Role of COP

the Conference of the Parties is the supreme decision-making body of the UNFCCC, meeting annually to review progress, negotiate commitments and adopt agreements

major climate agreements emerged through the COP process

The Kyoto Protocol in 1997 and Paris Agreement in 2015

UNFCCC Article 7

The conference of parites, including annual meetings, reviewing implementation and mobilising financial resources

UNFCCC Article 4

requires states to produce emissions investories, cooperate on emisions-reduction technologies and practices, protect greenhouse-gas sinks such as forests, consider climate change in policy and support technology transfer

Responsibility of developed states in Article 4

Shoud facilitate and finance access to environmentally sound technology and know-how for developing states

financial commitment agreed at COP15 in 2009

Developed states agreed to contribute US$100 billion each year to support developing states with climate mitigation and adaptation

why is the UNFCCC effective

provides a near-global framework, establishes a forum for negotiations, supports climate science and long-term targets, and engages non-state actors

why is the UNFCCC limited

majority agreement requirement can delay action

responsibility is contested between developed and developing states

commitments rely heavily on voluntary compliance rather than strong enforcement

What is the central temperatuee goal of the Paris Agreement

Limit warming below 2 degrees while pursuing efforts to limit it to 1.5 degrees

What are NDCs

Nationally Determined Contributions

Countries’ nationally set climate commitments

How often are NDCs updated under the Paris framework

every five years, with the expectation of increasing ambition

what is a global stocktake

a mechanism for assesing collective progress towards the goals of the Paris Agreement

why is the Paris Agreement considered effective

It shifted global policy towards net zero, encouraged clean investment, created a cycle of increasing ambition and established monitoring and reporting mechanisms

why is the Paris Climate Agreement Limited

Global emissions have not fallen quickly enough, fossil-fuel investment persists, developing states need greater financial support and implementation depends heavily on political will

What is the key difference between the strenght of the Paris Agreement and its implementation

It creates a strong international framework and norms, but actual emission reductions depend on states voluntarily implementing their commitments

What is Woodside’s stated climate target

Net zero by 2050, with a 30% reduction by 2030

What is controversial about Woodside’s climate response

It aims for emissions reductions while also supporting expansion of the North West Shelf Project until 2070

What are Greenpeace’s main climate responses

Campaigns and protests, protections of carbon sinks, calls for fossil-fuel phase-outs and holding governments and organisations accountable

What are shell’s stated climate goals

Net zero by 2050 and increased investment in low-carbon energy

what is a legal action involving Shell

A Dutch court ordered Shell to reduce emissions by 45% by 2030; Shell appealed and won its appeal in 2024

Why has Shell faced criticism over climate policy

It has been accused of “greenwashing” while continuing fossil-fuel expansion

Why can Shell potentially have large-scale influence

It operates in 70+ countries, has billions in capital and has the resources to scale renewable projects quickly

Why is Greenpeace limited compared with a state or corporation

It has no formal enforcement power and relies on public prssure rather than legislation or regulation

What does “effectiveness” mean in Politics

how far an actor’s response reduces the severity of the issues, achieves stated goals and overcomes political, economic and structural barriers

What four things should you consider when evaluating effectiveness

Capacity, willingness, constraints, and outcomes

What is ‘capacity’ when evaluating effectiveness

the resources, power and technology avaliable to the actor

What is ‘willingness’ when evaluating effectiveness

political will and the degree to which national interests support action

What is ‘constraints’ when evaluating effectiveness

facotrs such as sovereignty, economic costs, and conflicting interests

What is ‘outcomes’ when evaluating effectiveness

measureable impacts such as emissions reductions, cooperation or compliance

Why can China be effective in implementing climate policy

Its centralised government can implements policy rapidly, it has strong economic incentives to dominate renewable tehcnology and can mobilise large infrastructure projects quickly

Why can China still be ineffective on climate change overall

it remains the world’s largest emitter, relies heavily on coal and sometime prioritises economic growth over climate objectives

Why is US climate policy less consistent

Political polarisation, fossil-fuel lobbying and changing administrations can produce major policy swings

what strengths does the USA have in climate reponse?

high technological capacity and the ability to influence global norms when actively engaged

challenges to resolve climate change

fossil fuels are deeply entrenched

reluctance to cooperate

resistance from powerful interests

Why are fossil fuels politically difficult to reduce

they still power much industry, transport and electricity, and governments fear impacts on economic growth, jobs, prices and voters

example that displays voter pressure affecting climate policy in Australia

Liberal Party dropped a commitment to net zero by 2035, with Andrew Hastie calling for an end to “climate alarmism”

Why can states be reluctant to cooperate on climate change

all states benefit from emissions reductions, but individual states may prefer other states to bear the costs of generating change

why do NDCs create a challenge to resolving climate change

states can choose relatively unambitious targets because there is limited enforcement

example of China’s NDC

China committed to a 7-10% emissions reduction from peak by 2035

scientists argue a reduction closer to 31% would be necessary to align with Paris goals

how can corporations resist climate action

by spending money and political influence to protect profits and discourage stricter emissions policies

evidence involving sheel resisting climate change

Shell won its 2024 appeal against the Dutch court’s 2021 order to reduce climate emissions by 45% by 2030

How can fossil-fuel interests influence COP negotiations

Fossil-fuel companies, carbon-intensive industries and dependent governments can lobby to weaken or delay climate agreements

e.g. COP 30 in Brazil in 2025 saw the participation of 1,600 fossil fuel lobbyists

Political Stability

Maitenance of the status quo

Political stability in climate politics

continued fossil fuel expansion

slow COP consensus

greenwashing

emissions-locking infrastructure

voter-driven reluctance to change and continued emissions growth

How does Shell’s successful appeal illustrate stability

Maintains the status quo in which transnational corportation cannot easily by held accountable for international climate commitments without state legislation enforcing them

How does Woodside’s North West Shelf extension illustrate stability

Extending the project to 2070 locks in fossil-fuel infrastructure and long-term energy-exports patterns

What argument does Woodside use to justify the North West Shelf extension

energy security, jobs and stable gas exports to Asian markets such as Japan, Korea, and China

Political Change

Structural alteration to the usual way of doing things

How does the Paris Agreement represent political change

created new international norms, including NDCs and regular reporting and review

examples of domestic political change are identified

China’s net zero commitment

The US Inflation Reduction Act

Australia’s Safeguard Mechanism

other forms of political change

Climate litigation

China shifting towards high-tech production and renewable energy and becoming dominant in new energy investment