Section 8 - Public Opinion and Media

Public Opinion

Definition: Citizen’s views on politics and government actions

Population: Group of people research wants to study

Sample: Within the population, group surveyed to gauge whole population.

Sampling

• 1000-1500 people for usual sample

• Random Sampling: everyone in population has the same equal opportunity to be in the experiment/survey.

• “Do not call lines:” ER, hospital, etc.

• Sampling error: The +-, ran through 90% confidence interval; 90% confident that your data is within population/sample.

  • Statistical dead heat: if one claims a majority but their sampling error overlaps each other.

• Sampling bias: Specific group surveyed/experimented on; too many or too little types of people in survey, date, timing, location influences.

• Commonly used now: Phone polling or online polling

Latent Opinions & Framing

• Cognitive misers: we only form rich opinions when the payoff beats the effort.

• Latent opinions: formed on the spot, not deeply held.

• Framing: context that changes the criteria people use to judge issues.

• A survey is framed matters in 3 ways:

  • Wording

  • Question order

  • Closed vs. open-ended

What impacts Opinions and Ideas?

• Aggregate public opinion is stable. (sum of all opinions) Differences average out in a large random sample.

  • Measurement error: people may hear a different question than the one asked. “Precedent under Trump” and “president under Trump” sound alike but aren’t the same.

  • Most people don’t care much & follow opinion leaders.

  • Cognitive shortcuts: complex decisions made on the little information

Where do Opinions come from?

• Political socialization: opinions are shaped by other people and culture.

  • Sources: Family, friends, school, media, religion, race, gender, class, income, region, and age.

• Policy mood: level of public support for expanding government’s role.

American Political Culture

• Ideology: your set of political beliefs.

• Ideological polarization: citizens move away from the middle toward the extremes.

• Party ID/partisanship: a voting cue and part of personal identity.

• Bias: people give more attention and credibility to information that confirms their beliefs.

How do we try to control the media?

• Radio Act 1927 & Communications Act 1934 responded to radio’s popularity.

• FCC (1934) regulates broadcast media.

• Equal Time Provision: candidates get equal airtime access.

• Fairness Doctrine (1949, ended 1987): required balanced coverage of issues.

Who Owns what we see?

• Consolidation: in 1983, 90% of media was owned by 50 companies. By 2011, 6 companies controlled it.

• The six: GE, News Corp, Disney, Viacom, Time Warner, CBS.

• The slide asks whether this is good or bad. The Mr. Burns image hints at the ‘bad’ view.

Who Decides what is news?

• Media effects: coverage influences citizens’ opinions and actions.

• Hostile media effect: people see neutral coverage as biased against their side.

• How coverage shapes us (FPFS):

  • Filtering: what gets reported at all

  • Priming: Positive or negative coverage shifts perceptions.

  • Framing: how it’s covered

  • Slant: the lead of the coverage

The News Media

• Mass media: sources that give us information (newspaper, TV, radio, websites).

• The first Amendment protects a free press.

• Media tells us about our choices.