Section 1) b ii. Main findings of Teorell with determinants

Make sure that you are able to describe the main findings in Teorell associated with Social, Economic, International, and Popular (Mobilization) determinants (see individual Teorell Chapters, and Conclusion

Focus

Teorell examines why some countries became more democratic during the third wave of democratization

Categories of factors (4)

1) Social

2) Economic

3) International

4) Popular Mobilization

Social Determinants (5)

1) Country size

2) Proportion of Muslims

3) Colonial heritage

4) Ethnic diversity

5) Religious diversity

Country size

Negative (−): Larger countries were less likely to democratize; smaller countries had an advantage

Smaller countries may face fewer obstacles to political coordination and democratic governance. Teorell finds geographical size to be one of the important social determinants

Proportion of Muslims

Negative (−) initially: The association largely disappears when accounting for the Middle East and North Africa

Countries with larger Muslim populations were statistically associated with lower democratization, but the relationship was largely explained by the regional concentration of authoritarianism in the Middle East and North Africa

Colonial heritage, ethnic diversity, religious diversity

No significant overall effect

Main idea

Historical and social characteristics are not all equally important. Country size was a notable predictor, while many commonly assumed influences, such as colonial history and ethnic diversity, lacked consistent statistical support

Economic Determinants

1) socioeconomic modernization

2) inflation

3) economic growth

4) mineral wealth

5) oil/fuel wealth

6) income inequality

7) economic freedom

Socioeconomic modernization

positive (+)

oil/fuel wealth

negative (-)

income inequality, economic freedom

mixed findings

inflation, economic growth, mineral wealth

no significant overall relationship

Why does modernization encourage democracy? (5)

1) Middle class

2) civil society

3) political culture

4) education

5) economic elites

middle class

Development creates a larger middle class that may demand political representation.

civil society

Development strengthens independent organizations capable of challenging authoritarian power

political culture

Development can encourage tolerance, moderation, and democratic values

education

More educated citizens may be better equipped to participate politically and demand accountability

economic elites

Wealthier economic elites may become less fearful of democracy and redistribution

Why can oil/fuel wealth hurt democracy?

Oil revenues can allow authoritarian governments to finance themselves without depending as heavily on taxation or bargaining with citizens. These revenues may also help regimes maintain patronage networks and fund repression.

Important: Modernization is associated with democratization, but economic growth in a particular year is not the same as long-term socioeconomic development.

International determinants (5)

1) international trade volume

2) neighborhood diffusion

3) membership in democratic regional organizations

4) foreign direct investment and portfolio investment

5) foreign interventions

Why does neighbor diffusion (neighboring democracies) matter? (3)

Democratic diffusion means political changes in one country influence developments in other countries.

Two possible mechanisms are:

• Emulation: Citizens and opposition groups learn from successful democratic movements in neighboring countries.

• Imposition: Democratic neighbors actively encourage political reforms in nearby countries.

Why do democratic regional organizations matter?

Regional organizations can encourage democratization through:

• Pressure: Condemning authoritarian actions or threatening penalties.

• Elite acquiescence: Making military or economic elites more willing to accept democratic reforms.

• Legitimation: Supporting transitional governments and democratic commitments.

Important distinction: Teorell finds that democratic regional organizations encourage democratic upturns, but he does not find clear evidence that they prevent democratic downturns.

Why does international trade not matter?

International influences matter, especially democratic neighbors and regional organizations, but outside intervention does not automatically produce democracy.

Popular Mobilization definition

Collective action by citizens to achieve political goals, such as protests, demonstrations, strikes, or riots

Popular Mobilization types (4)

1) peaceful demonstrations

2) strikes

3) riots

4) civil war

peaceful demonstration

Positive (+) - encourage democratization

• Elite divisions: Sustained protests can divide authoritarian hard-liners and soft-liners.

• Broader participation: Nonviolent protests can attract more people, including those who might avoid violent confrontation.

• Regime dependence: Large-scale mobilization can undermine the economic and political relationships that authoritarian leaders depend on.

strikes

Negative (−) general association, but not a robust positive trigger of democratic upturns

riots

NS

civil war

Negative (−) relationship with democracy in the lecture's general, downturn, and long-run results