Chapter 2: Evaluating sources of information

Conclusions based on research findings are always better than experience because

• experience has no comparison group

• experience has confounding variables

Comparison groups

groups that allow us to compare what would have happened with or without the thing of interest

• Need to consider group matches

Random assignment

removes confounds and helps with group matching

Confounds

factors that change along with the variable of interest AKA another explanation for an occurrence

Note: it is impossible to account for all confounds

Sources of error

1. Measurement error

2. Temporal error

3. Group-related error

Error

something affecting the results that was not accounted for

ERROR DOES NOT MEAN MISTAKE

Measurement error

measure something that the researcher did not intend to measure

Temporal error

measuring things at different times impacts the results

Group-related error

Those who remain in the study may impact the group outcome

Research Results are

Probabilistic

research results are meant to explain a certain proportion of cases

Research is better than intuition because

intuition is biased

Availability Heuristic

when things come easily or difficulty to mind, we overestimate/underestimate how often the thing occurs)

ex: Not wanting to go swimming after the news showed a shark attack story

Present-Present Bias

We sometimes incorrectly assume that two events are related because the are both present at the same time, failing to consider the instances when they occur separately

ex: lucky socks for winning games

Confirmation Bias/selective attention bias

The tendency to only attend to the information that agrees with what you believe

Cherry Picking

Intentionally choosing to present others with only the evidence that supports the belief the presenter holds

Bias Blind Spot

Our tendency to believe that biases apply to others, but not us.

ABCC

Acronym for evaluating sources of information

Author

Bias

Content

Consistency/cross check

Things to consider about the author of a source

expert? education? large body of work? who is funding them?

Things to consider about bias in sources

purpose of article? objective presentation? conflict of interest? emotional language?

things to consider about the content of a source

appropriate and relevant citations? spelling and grammar errors? profesionally edited?

Things to consider about the consistency of a source

only source reporting info? others sources consistent with finding? reputable?

Misinformation

Inadvertently false info

Disinformation

False information knowingly created and shared