CRIM 409 - Quiz 1

Week 1 through Week 5

What are the 5 stages of the intelligence cycle?

1. Direction

2. Planning

3. Collection

4. Processing

5. Dissemination

What is involved in the “Direction” stage of the Intelligence cycle?

• project identification

• re-evaluation

• feedback

What is involved in the “Planning” stage of the Intelligence cycle?

• define the problem

• concept building

• collection plan

What is involved in the “Collection” stage of the Intelligence cycle?

• action the collection plan

• investigation / surveillance

• obtain data

What is involved in the “Processing” stage of the Intelligence cycle?

• collation

• evaluation

• integration

• link charting

• interpretation

What is involved in the “Dissemination” stage of the Intelligence cycle?

• report

• briefing

What were the 3 main issues plaguing the early “technology-based” policing models as outlined by Prox in the BlueLine article?

1. Systems couldn't effectively analyze or share information between systems.

2. Police weren't trained to use the technology properly.

3. Agencies resisted technology or failed to use the data in decision-making.

What is the name of VPD's integrated analytic system?

Consolidated Records Intelligence Mining Environment (CRIME)

How does VPD’s analytic system (CRIME) enable the free flow of information?

1. Analysts can monitor when persons of interest are entered or searched in the system.

2. Analysts share questions and reports through an internal website and meet every four months to exchange information.

Why do we use the intelligence cycle?

To provide a standardized, repeatable process based on the scientific method, allowing analysts to reach the same conclusions using the same information, quickly and efficiently in an operational setting

What is the role of a crime analyst?

• gathering and analyzing crime statistics

• identifying crime trends

• preparing reports and briefing notes

• producing bulletins and awareness reports

• presenting findings to analysts, supervisors, and police commanders

• preparing crime maps

• extracting/preparing data from records management systems (RMS)

• research current media topics

What is the role of an intelligence analyst?

• gathering and analyzing information from various sources

• identifying associations between people, vehicles, and addresses

• assessing the risk posed by persons or groups

• preparing reports, presentations, and briefing notes

• producing bulletins and awareness reports

• developing link charts

Why do we use collection plans?

• Enables focused data collection

• Establishes a timeline for the completion of the collection and by whom

• Increases efficiency and coordination

• Identifies sources and information needed

• Enables the development and validation of intelligence indicators

• Helps identify Intelligence gaps

• Supports analysts in developing inferences, testing assumptions, and validating facts

• Identifies the intelligence requirements and ensures that information collected is pertinent and that time and resources are efficiently tasked and applied

• Once collection has begun, helps to track progress and ensure time schedules are being met by those assigned responsibility

Why is collation necessary in the “Processing” stage of the Intelligence Cycle?

• Organizes large amounts of raw information from different sources, grouping related information together.

• Structures and stores information so analysts can easily locate, cross-reference, and retrieve it for analysis.

• Records where information came from and its evaluation, allowing analysts to assess its credibility and trace it back to the original source.

What are the three levels of intelligence analysis?

1. tactical intelligence analysis (24hrs-2wks)

2. operational intelligence analysis (2wks-2mths)

3. strategic intelligence analysis (2mths-yrs)

These three levels of analysis can be thought of as the view from the base of the CN Tower (tactical analysis), the view from the observation deck of the CN Tower (operational analysis), and the view from an airplane 30,000 feet above the CN Tower (strategic analysis).

As one moves from tactical through operational to strategic, there is an increase in both the scope and time horizons of analytical predictions.

What are the three main types of intelligence requirements?

• descriptive intelligence requirement

• explanatory intelligence requirement

• anticipatory intelligence requirement

What is an analysis of competing hypotheses (ACH)?

a method that tests multiple possible explanations against evidence to identify the most plausible conclusion

What are the six families of Structured Analytic Techniques (SATs)?

1. Getting organized

2. Exploration techniques

3. Diagnostic techniques

4. Reframing techniques

5. Foresight techniques

6. Decision support techniques

What is an indicator?

an observable/quantifiable action, condition, event, or behaviour that suggests the potential occurrence of a specific shift in state, adversary intent, or threat development

What is tactical intelligence analysis?

focuses on targeting specific subjects of interest in ongoing investigations within short time horizons

What is operational intelligence analysis?

focuses on comparing subjects of interest to determine relative threat levels within medium-term time horizons

What is strategic intelligence analysis?

focuses on assessing how social, political, and economic factors will impact the behaviour of subjects of interest within long time horizons

What is a descriptive intelligence requirement?

an intelligence question that requires a response focused on answer the Who? What? Where? and When?

What is an explanatory intelligence requirement?

an intelligence question that requires a response focused on causality (i.e., the Why? and How?)

What is an anticipatory intelligence requirement?

an intelligence question that requires a response focused on prediction

What are the 5 levels of reliability used in Canada?

1. Confirmed reliable, court verified (C/R/C)

2. Confirmed reliable (C/R)

3. Believed reliable (B/R)

4. Doubtful reliability (D/R)

5. Unknown reliability (U/R)

What is reliability?

the credibility of an information source

What is validity?

the credibility/accuracy of the information

Describe the Admiralty rating system

source reliability (A-F) x data validity (1-6)

What is a structured analytic technique (SAT)?

a group of distinct, rule-based processes for minimizing bias and encouraging structured thinking in intelligence analysis

Why do we use SATs?

• to minimize bias

• to minimize cognitive limitations

• to increase transparency, consistency, and rigour

What is System 1 and System 2 thinking?

System 1: intuitive, fast, efficient and often unconscious; draws on knowledge, experience, established mental models (heuristics); often accurate, little effort; a source of cognitive bias, mistakes

System 2: critical thinking, SATs, empirical analysis, etc.

What activities have we done in class that fall under the “Getting organized” SAT?

• ranking/scoring the priority of the 5Ws to identify a PIR

• association matrix

What activities have we done in class that fall under the “Exploration techniques” SAT?

• brainstorming

• starbursting

• network analysis (link charting)

• mind mapping

• timeline

What activities have we done in class that fall under the “Diagnostic techniques” SAT?

• analysis of competing hypotheses (ACH)

What is a hypothesis?

a possible explanation or conclusion that can be tested using evidence

What is abductive reasoning?

choosing the hypothesis that best explains an incomplete set of observations or evidence

What is diagnosticity in ACH?

how useful a piece of evidence is in distinguishing between competing hypotheses

How does ACH differ from conventional analysis?

Conventional analysis seeks evidence supporting one hypothesis; ACH tests several and seeks to disprove them

What are the first 4 steps of ACH?

1. identify hypotheses

2. list evidence for and against each

3. create a comparison matrix

4. score each piece of evidence as consistent, inconsistent, or neutral for each hypothesis

What should be included when reporting ACH conclusions?

compare all hypotheses, explain judgments, and acknowledge uncertainty

4 key elements of ACH

1. Consider alternative hypotheses

2. Identify diagnostic evidence

3. Seek refuting evidence

4. Compare recommendations

What are the benefits of formalizing abductive reasoning (using ACH)?

• allows an analyst to efficiently and effectively analyze multiple pieces of information and ideas in a way that would be extremely difficult for anyone to do in their head

• brings transparency to the analytical process by allowing other analysts and decision-makers to understand why a particular hypothesis was chosen as a leading explanation or prediction and by providing a means to audit the reasoning process behind this choice

• provides business continuity in the event that one analyst (or analytical team) is replaced by another

• guards against the twin biases of satisficing (prioritizing a favoured hypothesis while disregarding competing hypotheses) and confirmation bias (considering only information that is consistent with a favoured hypothesis)

What is link analysis?

a method that uses link charts, timelines, and flow charts to manually uncover patterns and key targets in data

What is association analysis?

a visual representation of association between persons, organizations, events, locations, vehicles, phone numbers, etc.

What are the steps of association analysis?

1. Collect material & number pages

2. Organize case information

3. Extract association material

4. Place into association database

5. Prepare association matrix

6. Count associations of each person or thing

7. Create diagram based on association matrix

8. Produce biographic summaries of entities on chart

9. Create summary of chart

10. Ask critical questions of the data

11. Establish what necessary information is present and what is absent

12. Draw interim hypothesis (es) and/or Validate Collection Plan Hypothesis

13. Develop a list of unanswered questions & recommendations for collecting that information (investigative steps necessary)

14. Present findings & written report to management

15. Respond to management questions as necessary

What are the 2 classes of sensitive information?

• classified: information that, if compromised, could harm national security

• designated: information that, if compromised, could harm individuals, organizations, or governments

What are the 3 levels of classified information?

1. confidential: compromised information could cause injury to the national interest

2. secret: compromised information could cause serious injury to the national interest

3. top secret: compromised information could cause exceptionally grave injury to the national interest

What are the 3 levels of designated information?

1. Protected A: compromised information could cause injury to an individual, an organization, or a government

2. Protected B: compromised information could cause serious injury to an individual, an organization, or a government

3. Protected C: compromised information could cause extremely grave injury to an individual, an organization, or a government

What does a “need-to-know” security rating mean?

a norm in crime and intelligence analysis that access to information should be granted only to persons with a need to know that information

What are the components of a Report?

1. executive summary

2. introduction

3. background

4. methodology and findings

5. issues and constraints

6. conclusion and recommendations

What are the 3 types of inferences?

1. conclusions: an explanation that is well-supported; a confirmed hypothesis; can be operationalized

2. predictions: an inference about something that will happen in the future

3. estimations: an inference made from a sample of the population (i.e., a poll)

What is deductive reasoning?

general to specific (moving from a general theory to a specific, logically valid conclusion)

ex: a bag of marbles contains only red marbles; you take one out without looking at it. you can infer that the marble will be red

What is inductive reasoning?

specific to general (moving from a significant number of observations to a general conclusion or theory)

ex: you take one marble out of a bag of marbles and see that it is red; you take a second and third marble out and see they are also red. you infer that all the marbles in the bag are red.

4 elements of intelligence-led policing

• targeting offenders (especially the targeting of active criminals through overt and covert means)

• the management of crime and disorder hotspots

• the investigation of linked series of crimes and incidents

• the application of preventative measures, including working with local partnerships to reduce crime and disorder

How is intelligence-led policing defined in Ratcliffe (2003)?

the application of criminal intelligence analysis as an objective decision-making tool in order to facilitate crime reduction and prevention through effective policing strategies and external partnership projects drawn from an evidential base

What are the 6 steps to better intelligence analysis, as per the COI POI 2008 report?

1. Define the analytic problem

2. Gather, evaluate, and organize data

3. Deal with potential mental traps

4. Formulate and test hypotheses and scenarios

5. Construct a sound argument

6. Give an effective presentation

What are the 7 steps of link analysis?

1. Assemble all raw data

2. Determine focus of the chart

3. Construct an association matrix

4. Code the associations in the matrix

5. Determine the number of links for each entity

6. Draw a preliminary chart

7. Clarify and re-plot the chart

What Admiralty ratings are considered to be confirmed links, as per the UN guide?

A1, A2, B1, B2

any rating lower than this is unconfirmed