American Government: Public Opinion, Polling, Parties & Elections

What is public opinion?

- The will of the people

- The collective compilation of individual views. attitudes, and beliefs held by a large group of the community

Who was the first person to engage in public opinion polling in the US?

George Gallup in 1932

What is the typical sample size for a national survey in the US?

- 1,500-2,000

- What is meant by sampling error? - The natural difference b/t opinions of a group

What is meant by the Random Probability Sampling procedure (PPSP)?

A process that gives each case or element an equal chance of being selected in a sample

What is the most important feature of an accurate public opinion poll?

- RPSP is a key characteristic of sampling

- A technique that allows every case in the universe a chance of being selected

- It is why surveying actually works: Every case gets a number, and then you know what your sample size will be. Divide that sample size by the universe, and that tells you a random starting point, and you move through the process

- Its a representative and random sample

- Every person in the universe has an equal chance of being selected

- All samples have a margin or error (the larger the sample, the smaller the margin of error)

Are public opinion polls a benefit or a problem for American democracy?

Both.

Benefits:

- Help policymakers keep in touch with changing public opinion

- Help officials understand citizens' wishes

- Can serve as a tool for democracy

Problems:

- Undermines democracy

- People are answering questions that they have no idea what they are talking about

- Polls shape opinion; they do reflect it

- Politicians may focus on following public opinion instead of leading

- Polls can give the impression that the gov has considered public opinion even when people are uninformed

- Polls can create a bandwagon effect (if someone is going to be a clear winner, why even vote for someone else)

What are some of the most important dimensions of public opinion variables? What impact does each dimension have for government officials?

- direction - whether people are for or against an issue

- intensity - the vast majority of Americans strongly hold this opinion

- Saliency - How important an issue is compared w/ others.

- Stability - how changeable the opinion is - remaining the same

What are the basic patterns of public opinion? Which do government officials like the most and the least?

- Permissive Pattern: few people hold an opinion, so decision-makers can choose without public backlash

- Consensus pattern: most people hold the same opinion on an issue

- Divisive pattern: most people have an opinion, but they are not evenly divided on the issue

- Most liked: the permissive pattern - gives maximum freedom of action

- Least liked: the divisive pattern - when issues divide the electorate, it angers a large segment of voters

What are some of the most common problems associated with election polls

- Error factor: the margin of error can be critical in close elections

- Timing of voters' decisions: voters may change their minds at the last moment

- Predicting turnout: pollsters have difficulty predicting who will actually vote

- Influencing opinion: polls may be used to influence opinion instead of simply reporting it

How does primary election structure impact polling

They take party control away for the primaries and let all eligible voters have the ability to vote for any candidate regardless of party

What are some general problems linked to polling and public opinion research?

- Wording of questions - questions may be biased

- Nature of questions - questions may be personal, such as drug use or open-ended questions

- Respondents may hold no opinion - some people may not have an opinion on the subject

- Nature of the Survey - telephone surveys provide quick responses; mailed surveys have low return rates; personal interviews are expensive and may influence responses

To interpret public opinion polls accurately, what information do you need? Explain

- Wording of the questions - to identify possible bias

- Sample size - to understand how many people were surveyed

- Group being sampled - to determine whose opinions the poll represents

- Date of the poll - to know when the information was collected

- Poll sponsor - to identify who sponsored the poll

- Margin of error - to understand the possible sampling errors

Based upon your responses to National Election Study questions, why would a majority of class members identify with the Republican Party? What are the key characteristics of the two major parties?

- Family income: 86% reported income above $50,000

- Born-again Christians: 86% reported yes

- Ideology: 51% reported conservative

- Party identification: 69% identified with the republican party in some way

Students at Ouachita Baptist University would be more likely to identify with the republican party because they have a higher income, are born again christians, are conservative.

**

Republicans are more likely to be: male, college graduates, people with incomes over 50,000, born again christians, conservative, white, protestant

Democrats are more likely to be: Female, high school graduate or less, people with income below 50,000, union members, liberal, African American, jewish

14. What is meant by political culture? How does political culture differ from public opinion? How does it differ from political socialization?

- Political culture: the core values, beliefs, and attitudes in a political system

- Public opinion: when people think about specific political issues, leaders, or government policies

- Public socialization: the process by which people learn their political beliefs and values from family, school, friends, media, and other influences

- Main differences: political culture is the shared political beliefs of a society, public opinion is what people think about current issues, and political socialization is how people develop political beliefs

15. Why is socialization such an important issue for most governments? What is socialization?

Political socialization: the transmission of political values and norms from one generation to the next

Why it matters: it contributes to the survival of the political system

16. What are the major agents of socialization? What role do they play? Which agent is considered most important?

Family: teaches political beliefs and values (most important bc it influences from early on)

School: teaches government, citizenship, and how the system works

Peers: conversations and shared experiences

Media: provides political news and information that shapes opinion - very accessible so it has high influence

Religion: influences beliefs, morals, political issues

17. What are verba and Nie's various participant types? How would you characterize yourself using their criteria? Explain

Campaigners: People who vote and participate in campaigns, such as volunteering or helping candidates.

Communalists: People who work with others to solve community problems but may not be involved in political campaigns.

Parochial participants: (4%) People who contact government officials about specific problems that affect them personally.

Complete activists: People who participate in many different political activities, including voting, campaigning, and community involvement.

Inactives: (22%) People who rarely or never participate in politics.

Voting specialists: People who mainly participate by voting in elections.

What were the key expansions in the right of franchise? What Attempts were made to restrict or limit these new franchise rights?

Property requirements: when this requirement was dropped, all african americans could vote. 13th, 14th, 15th amendment

Post civil war: union left the south, restricting or limiting franchise rights: grandfather clauses passed (if your grandfather voted, then you can vote)

Literacy test

Poll taxes: the people voting are the people who pay - also meant to be discriminatory

White only primaries

What factors impact participation in the US political process? Which factors seem to be more influential in predicting participation

Education (more political knowledge)

Income (people with higher income participate more because they have more time, resources, and connections)

Race (participation can be affected by historical barriers, resource access, and community engagement)

Gender (gender gap) - single female headed households and single never-married women are more likely

Age (older people vote more because they have more experience and habits)

Most influential factors: education and income are strong predictors bc they provide people with knowledge, resources, and opportunities

What are some theories of voting behavior and how do they explain a citizens vote

Irrational Theories (group theory and psychological theory(party ID) ) (vote based on emotions)

Rational theories (decision making theory, issue oriented theory) (vote based on most beneficial candidate)

Overview theories (prospective voting and retrospective voting) (vote based on the overall picture)

Does age impact the degree of citizen commitment to political parties? What is the oldest political party in the world?

US parties are some of the oldest in the world

US parties are weaker

The democratic party is the oldest in the world founded in the 1820s

What distinguishes a political party from an interest group

Political parties run a candidate under their party label while interest groups just endorse a candidate

What is the common definition of a political party

An organized group of people who share similar political beliefs and work together to win elections and control government

What are the major components of American political parties

Party in the electorate: people who identify with or support a political party (average people)

Party organization: the organizational structure of the party (direct staff)

Party in government: people serving in the government or have a job because of their party affiliate (key spokesperson)

What does it take to be a member of a US party? How strong are US political parties

- Party Membership: you just say so - secret ballots

- Strength of US political parties: US parties are relatively weak compared with parties in many other countries because they are decentralized and voters and elected officials have independence

Are US parties centralized or decentralized organizations? Why?

- US parties are decentralized because power is spread among national, state, and local party organizations

- They have less control over candidates and elected officials

Who are the members of the party in government? What role do they play in the political process?

- The spokesperson

- The party in government consists of party members holding government positions

- Examples include speaker of the house, a chancellor, and a president

What are the major functions/tasks of US political parties? How do the parties perform these functions?

Recruitment function (getting people to run under the party label),

election function,

education function,

policy function (how to address issues),

governing function (spending time running over making policies)

loyal opposition function (the party not controlling the white house should be pointing out issues)

- Parties organize campaigns, hold primaries and conventions, raise money, advertise, recruit volunteers, develop platforms, and coordinate elected officials

According to analysts, what is the primary weakness of American political parties?

- Key weakness: the party organization does not control the party label; voters do

- The selection of candidates in primary elections leads to this weakness

What are common explanations for the two-party system in the us? What explanation is usually considered most credible? Why?

Tradition (whigs vs. Democrats- the Republican Party being the only third party to become a major party)

Social consensus (big-picture items: most Americans agree on end results and disagree on how to get there)

Election system and rules (the electoral rules benefit a two-party system)

How do the differing electoral systems impact party success?

- First-past-the-post election structure as compared to a proportional system

- We have a two-party system bc it is structured to benefit two parties

- In a single-member party system and first-past-the-post, majoritarian-type systems go off: whoever gets the most votes gets the job - you have to come in first

- Any democratic nominee began the process with 200+ electoral votes

- Any republican nominee began with 100+ votes

Democrats have an advantage

What was the first U.S. party system? What was the "Era of Good Feelings"? How many party systems have existed throughout U.S. history? What distinguishes these party systems?

First US party system: federalist vs democratic republicans

Era of Good Feelings: A period when the federalist party declined and there was little organized opposition to the democratic republicans

Number of party systems: 6 major party systems

What distinguishes party systems: changes in the major political parties, dividing issues, supporting groups

What is the "invisible" primary? What happens during this time period?

The period when no delegates are being selected. During this time, candidates jockey for the positions, line up party support, obtain financial support, and gain credibility with journalists

What is the key feature of a nomination process?

- Intra-party competition, and the goal is to win party delegates to go to the national convention.

- How a person receives the party label to face the other nominee in the other party during the general election

What is the goal of those running for the presidential nomination? How does an individual become the official nominee of their party?

The goal is to win party delegates, and the nomination is obtained at the party convention. (the delegates vote at the NPC)

Traditionally, which state holds the primary? The first caucus? Why are these states so important?

First state - New Hampshire first caucus - Iowa (republican) Nevada (democrats) Importance: they start the presidential nomination process and their early results influence media coverage, campaign momentum, fundraising, and how voters view their candidate

What is front-loading in the primary process?

- Front-loading in the primary process is trying to

1. Moving more racially diverse states earlier in the cycle

2. Primaries and causes in general: more of them stacked earlier in the calendar year

What are the major methods used to select delegates to attend the national party conventions? Which method is used by more states? How do the parties differ in their selection methods?

Methods: Holding a primary or a caucus

Differ: how they approach the primary process

Primaries:

- binding primaries (democrats): they are bound to vote for the nominee for at least the first ballot if they get half the votes- this is how we know who the nominee will be before the convention

- preference primaries: give the delegate some leeway

- Most states use binding primaries - The Democrats are always proportional and never change their selection method

-Republican party allows for a winner-take-all method to speed up the process of selecting a nominee.

What are the major differences between these delegate selection methods?

- Caucuses: series of meetings, face-to-face, ward and precinct levels; the downside is that attendance - no

one wants to spend their time at the meetings; no absentee balloting

- Primaries: binding primaries (pledged delegates) - if you get 40% of the vote, you get 40% of the

- delegates; preference primaries - give delegates some leeway

In addition to population, how do the political parties award delegates to each state?

- The state's past support for the party and its electoral success from previous elections

- Republicans: track record of support - elected offices (if a state has been choosing republicans, then you get bonus delegates)

- Democrats: total votes cast for the candidate in the last election

How are the party activists different from the party in the electorate?

- Party activists: people who actively work for a political party, such as volunteering for campaigns, organizing events, or raising money

- Party in the electorate: all voters who identify with or support a political party, even if they do not participate

What are the key features of "matching funds" in the presidential nomination contest? What funds are matched?

A person has to raise money in 20 states with small contributions of $250 or less - total of $ 5,000 in funds

to be matched. If you take matching funds, campaign expenditure limits are placed.

When do campaign expenditure limits apply to potential party nominees' efforts? Why did expenditure limits not apply to Kamala Harris and Donald Trump in the 2024 campaign?

Campaign expenditure limits apply to party nominees after they choose to take matching funds.

Expenditure limits didn't apply to Kamala Harris and Donald Trump because they chose not to take

matching funds because they could make more money through campaign funds than through matching

funds.

What was the "King Caucus" method of selecting presidential nominees? What were the major problems associated with this process?

King Caucus: party members serving in the legislature (Congress) selected nominees - party members in the House or Senate decided who their nominee would be

Problems: violated the separation of powers; did not provide geographic representation

Replaced by the National Party Convention

What are the various primary elections used to select party nominees for Congress in electoral choices? Explain. How do they differ

Closed primary: Only registered party members can vote for their party's nominee.

Open primary: Voters can choose which party's primary to vote in, regardless of their party registration.

Closed modified primary: Voters may be allowed to register with a party or change their affiliation when voting.

wide-open primary: Voters can choose among candidates from different parties on the same ballot.

Runoff primary: whoever gets the party label, gets majority support

Main difference: These primaries differ in who can vote and which candidates voters can choose from when selecting a party's nominee.

What was the Democratic "advantage" in Presidential elections?

From 1992-2012, 18 states voted democrat in 6 consecutive elections - these states totaled to 242 electoral college votes

Republicans had 13 states in all 6 elections adding up to 102 votes

While a democratic victory wasn't guaranteed, they did have a large advantage

Why did the Democratic nominee's Electoral College advantage fail to work in the 2024 election? Explain.

An electoral college advantage is not the key to winning - A candidate can lose an expected advantage if they lose swing states through voter support shifting

In 2024, votes were dissatisfies with the economy and the direction of the country when it came to Kamala Harris. Trump gained the support of swing states.