Middle East Outlines

Comp. Politics Paradigms - Liberal

• Key Actors: Individuals and groups

• Politics = Bargaining

• State Functions: Achieving societal consensus

Comp. Politics Paradigms - Elitist

• Key Actors: Leaders

• Politics = Dominating

• State Functions: Maintaining existing elites in power

Comp. Politics Paradigms - Marxist

• Key Actors: Social classes

• Politics = Class struggle

• State Functions: Reproduction and management of existing class relationships

Comp. Politics Paradigms - Institutionalist

• Key Actors: Government institutions

• Politics = Administration = f(history)

• State Functions: Perpetuating itself

Comp. Politics Paradigms - Culturalist

• Key Actors: Civilizations

• Politics = Expression of national character

The Islamic State

• Muhammad (622-632) and the Rightly Guided Caliphs (632-661)

  • The prophet

• Umayyad Empire (661-750)

• Abbasid Empire (750-1258)

• Ottoman (1280-1924) and Persian Empire (1501-1925)

Ali ibn Abi Talib (656–661 CE)

• The son-in-law of Muhammad

• The first Imam in Shi’a Islam

Berbers

• Converted to Islam after a century of resistance

• The Great Berber Revolt (739–740 CE)

Hasan and Husain

• Grandsons of Muhammad

• Second and third Imam’s of Shi’a Islam

Karbala

• A major city in Iraq

• Site of the Battle of Karbala in 680 AD

Kharijis

• First major breakaway in Islamic history

• “Judgement belongs to God alone”

Mu’awiya

• A companion of Muhammad

• Refused to pledge allegiance to Ali

Shari’a

• Religious and moral code of Islam

Shi’a

• Second largest branch of Islam

• Ali is the rightful successor of Muhammad

Sunni

• Largest branch of Islam

• Abu Bakr is the rightful successor of Muhammad

Umma

• The united community of Islam

Post World War I Settlement

• Collapse of the old order: Young Turks and Hashemites

• Arab States: Sykes-Picot (1916)

• Turkey: Sevres (1920)

• Iran - Remained independent, but faced British and Russian influence

Collapse of the old order: Young Turks and Hashemites

• The Ottoman Empire collapses after centuries of rule

• The Young Turks were a reformist, nationalist movement

• Hashemites were an Arab dynasty that led the Arab Revolt against the Ottomans

Arab States: Sykes-Picot (1916)

• An agreement between the French and British to divide up the Ottoman Empire into spheres of influence. Arabs hoped for independence.

Turkey: Sevres (1920)

• A treaty that was to divide up Turkey and leave them with very little land

• Kemal rises up and defeated this settlement

Stateness Debate

• Kedourie Thesis - refer back to reading summaries

• Counter Arguments

Statebuilding Trajectories

• Turkey: Nation-state project (Kemalism)

  • Turkey had the most favorable conditions to create a nation-state

• Iran: Intermediate case

  • Iran faced some issues, but was still capable of a nation-state

• Arab states: nation-state contradiction (Pan-Arab dilemma)

  • Existing institutions made it virtually impossible to form a nation-state

Faisal

• Led the Hashemites in the Arab Revolt during WWI

• Ruled in Syria before being removed by the French

• Became king of Iraq under British influence

• Illustrates Arab aspirations in contradiction with Western interests

Reza Shah Pahlavi

• Founded the Pahlavi dynasty in Iran in 1925 following the 1921 coup

• Centralized state authority, modernized,  and pursued Western reform 

Modernization Theory

• Lerner

  • Urbanization → Raising literacy (easier when together) → mass media (people to read newspapers and other media) → rise in per capita income → democracy

    • Have to happen sequentially

• Rosto

  • Build up various elements little by little, and there won’t be large change until eventually a threshold is reached where society can lift off into democracy

Kemalist Revolution from Above (1923-1950): Six Arrows

• Founded the People’’s Republican Party (CHP)

  • Had houses/rooms in every city to accept people’s concerns and distribute the government’s initiatives

• Statism

• Nationalism

• Secularism

• Republicanism

• Reformism

• Populism

Statism

• The state takes the lead in economic development

• Building infrastructure

  • Roads, railroads, dams, etc.

• They believed in private property, but there was no market

Nationalism

• Done through the education system

• Banned languages other than Turkish (binding)

  • Exceptions for non-muslims (Jews, Greeks, etc.)

    • Designated a minority so they can have their own language, religion, etc.

• Not an ethnic superiority, but still destroyed cultures

Secularism

• Modern = secular

• They tried to change Islam

  • Tried to make it more like Christianity/European

• Arab = backward

• Women were not allowed to cover their hair

Mass Mobilization: Center vs. Periphery

• Democratic Party (1950-1960)

• Right vs. Left (1961-1980)

• Turgut Özal (1983-1993)

Democratic Party (1950-1960)

• More religiously conservative and free-market

• In 1950, the Democratic Party won 50% of the vote and never lost an election afterwards

• The Turkish Tango

  • You can’t wipe out a religion and revert to a secular regime and kill those who oppose it or wipe out the Kemalists - both groups were too strong

  • By maintaining balance and preserving the democratic pluralist nature, you avoid a bloodbath

Right vs. Left (1961-1980)

• A period of transition

• Democrats were banned - becomes the Justice Party (center-right alternative to the Republican People’s Party)

  • More free market

  • More tolerant of Muslim expression

• The Republican People’s Party moved further and further left to keep the votes of the working class

• The traditional Kemalist coalition finds support dwindling; it can’t go further left or right without abandoning values (being pulled in both directions)

• A coup in 1970: the military took over, pushed through a new constitution, and power was returned 2 years later and the same dynamic returned

Turgut Özal (1983-1993)

• Could no longer be managed by the military

• Didn’t know how to enact reforms

• They let Özal run the economy

• Hated by Kemalists

• He enacted large, successful reforms

  • Made Turkey globalized and free market

• He hated Europe and loved the US

  • He didn’t like that France was so resistant to religion, whereas America embraced religion and still had technological advancements

• Populist

• Tolerant

  • Religious (why the Kemalists hated him)

• He heavily turned away from the 6 arrows of Kemalism

• He challenged their foreign policy

• A balance between Özal and the military

Social Pressures

• Mass Mobilization

• Religious Identity

• Ethnic Identity (Kurds)

Mass Mobilization

• Increase of political participation from ordinary citizens

• Challenged the secular military

• Contributed to the rise of the AKP

Religious Identity

• Wants for more religious freedom helped the rise of the AKP as well

• Opposed restrictions on religious expression despite that Turkey was formed on the secular values of Kemal

Ethnic Identity (Kurds)

• 20-35% of the population is Kurdish

• Leftist party

• Nationalist, separatist movement

• Islamist refers to them as Kurdish Kemalists, Kurdish nationalists

• Feel threatened by hostile foreigners

  • Right now, Israel is supporting Kurdish separatism as an attempt to undermine Turkish rule

• 47% of the Turkish Kurds support the PKK’s actions

• 90% of the Turkish Kurds said they wanted a change in the structure of the republic

• Özal tried to deal with this issue and loosen restrictions, but it wasn’t enough

  • He considered breaking Turkey up into 6 states to allow the Kurds one of them, but it didn’t go through

• Recognizing Kurdish identity strays away from the idea of a united Turkish identity

Rise of the AK Party (2002-2011)

• Radical regaining of fortune

• Democrats - not calling themselves Muslim Democrats despite being that

  • Don’t wanna be seen as veering from secularism and being overthrown by the military

• Liberal reforms in Parliament

• Wanted to join the EU

  • Not for economic, cultural, foreign policy

  • Applying to the EU requires democratizing at home, and this stops the military from overthrowing them

  • Forced the military to go along with mandated reforms from Europe, essentially

• Open about multiculturalism

Adnan Menderes 

• Prime minister of Turkey in 1950-1960

• First ruler during multi-party government

• Supportive of more Islamic tradition

• Overthrown by the military in 1960

Recep Tayyip Erdoğan

• Prime minister 2003-2014 and president 2014-present

• Leads the AKP

• Conservative

• Increased presidential power

İsmet İnönü 

• Kemal’s successor as president 1938-1950

• Maintained CHP single-party rule

• Lost to Menderes in 1950

Abdullah Öcalan

• Founder of the Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK)

  • Armed insurgency in 1984

• Captured and killed in 1999

CHP (Republican People's Party) 

• Oldest major political party

• Founded by Kemal and represents Kemalist tradition

• Governed Turkey in single-rule until 1950 and is still a major party

PKK (Kurdistan Workers’ Party)

• Armed Kurdish nationalist group, founded in 1978

• Wanted an independent Kurdish state

• Often designated as a terrorist group

MHP (National Action Party): Grey Wolves

• Emphasizes Turkish national identity, unity, and anti-Kurdish separatism 

• Grey Wolves - linked to political violence and anti-leftist activism

Iran - 1921-1941

• Political Development: Pahlavi state-building

• Economic development: Traditional

• Opposition: Anti-Centralizing

Political Development: Pahlavi state-building

• In power from 1925-1941, followed the 1921 coup

• Building a centralized, modern state

• Reduced the control of religious structures, tribal groups, and regionals and increased the power of the military and bureaucracy

Economic development: Traditional

• Still a largely agricultural economy

• Limited industrialization despite state-led infrastructure development

Opposition: Anti-Centralizing

• Tribal leaders, regional authorities, and religious figures resisted Pahlavi’s centralization

Iran - 1941-1963

• Political Development: WWII Occupation and Mosaddeq

• Economic development: Struggle over oil

• Opposition: Failed revolution from below

Political Development: WWII Occupation and Mosaddeq

• Iran wanted to stay out of WW2

  • Reza Shah had the same goal as Kemalism - modernization

  • Europe didn’t allow Iran to stay neutral

    • Oil was important

• Reza Shah became weaker when overthrown

  • His son, Mohammad Reza Pahlavi, was put in place as a puppet for the British

• Tendency to break away; ethnic groups in different sections of the country

  • All seeking autonomy

  • Civil society forces that the Shah is trying to dominate

• An emerging middle class

• 1951 - Mossadeq becomes prime minister

  • Nationalized oil, challenging British control

  • The US and Britain overthrow him in 1953

Economic development: Struggle over oil

• In 1951, Iranian parliament voted to nationalize oil

• Challenges British control

• Mossadeq is overthrown as a result

Opposition: Failed revolution from below

• Many movements, some following Mossadeq, tried to challenge the rule of the Shah, but the coup in 1953 created a lack of change

Iran - 1963-1979

• Political Development: White Revolution and Danger Zone

• Economic development: Oil Boom and Social Dislocation

• Opposition: Failed revolution from above

Political Development: White Revolution and Danger Zone

• The US forces reforms upon Iran

• Massive land reforms to create a middle class of farmers

• Industrial privatization

• Literacy corp

• Health corp

• Improvement of living

• Modernization

  • Benefited the peasantry and weakened tribal leaders

  • Dismantling the old way of life leaves a period where the new institutions aren’t strong enough yet to take over, and the old institutions are weakened.

  • Old and new powers are upset (want them to move slower and faster) where

• The Shah’s authoritarian rule, suppression of political opposition, and rapid social change creates unrest leading toward the 1979 revolution

Economic development: Oil Boom and Social Dislocation

• In 1960, Iran made $275 million in oil

  • $23.3 billion in 1964

  • Rapid industrialization

• Created a new dangerous political situation; urban centers allow easier mobilization

  • There’s a lot of inflation due to gov’t spending

  • Lack of housing

  • Growing income tax

  • The growth of a new wealthy class and also small artisans, craftsmen, shopowners, etc. that are becoming impoverished and receiving a declining standard of living

    • The rich flaunted their new wealth, causing increased resentment

  • The lower middle class and the already poor were very distressing for Iran

    • Became revolutionary classes

    • The oppressed and marginalized

Opposition: Failed revolution from above

• By enforcing modernizing strategies without allowing political change from below, there’s a lack of legitimacy around the government despite the reforms

• Religious leaders, students, and workers are growing restless

• The Revolution is nearing as a result of these reforms

• 1978 - An attack on him in the media

  • Sparked an insurrection

  • Demonstrations

• Response

  • A massacre (Black Friday)

  • The Shah appointed a military cabinet

  • Promised free elections

  • The army would kill people at demonstrations

Iran - 1979-1997

• Political Development: Green Revolution

• Economic development: War Economy

• Opposition: Repressed

Political Development: Green Revolution

• Overthrew Mohommad Reza Pahlavi

• Established Khomeini

• The US and the Soviets didn’t think that the clerics would be able to run the country

  • Both had their own aspirations for the new government

  • They underestimated the force of the new movement and its ability to sustain itself

• Against changes to social issues

• Materially and spiritually damaging; goes against religious tradition

  • Doesn't like women being in the same schools as men

• Values will be corrupted by the transition

• Fear of what would happen to traditional understandings of men and women toward each other

  • Animates politics in the Middle East often

• Resulted in riots against the White Revolution

  • Killed demonstrators

  • The military threw religious students off the roofs of seminaries

  • Riots were eventually put down

• The Shah had initiated forces that were difficult to control

Economic development: War Economy

• The war with Iraq helped establish the government

• The gov’t has to direct resources to the military and national security

• High-ranking officers fled

• In France, there was a war which mobilized them behind the new regime

• Saddam Hussein invaded, but the revolutionary regime mobilized and fought back, despite every other country supporting Iraq

  • The Iranians held them off and almost won the war

  • It helped establish the regime in Iran

Opposition: Repressed

• The Islamic Republic suppressed opposing political movements (leftists, liberals, and others who opposed the new regime)

• Khomeini’s government layout

  • Legislature, Council of Guardians, and Executive Branch

    • Legislature - came from before the Shah

      • Parliament was elected by popular vote to serve 4 terms - passes laws

      • An arena of interest groups

    • Council of Guardians - 12 high-ranking clerics

      • Can veto laws from Parliament when they violate Islam

      • Can veto candidates for popular elections

    • Executive branch

      • President - elected to a 4-year term, subject to impeachment

      • Supreme Leader

        • Appointed for life by the Assembly of Experts

• Doesn’t allow the pilgrimage to Mecca

  • Political imperative over everything else

• Innovative, flexible, and durable regime

  • Can’t be torn down by taking down certain people; it’s about the institutions

Iran - 1997 +

• Political Development: Authoritarian Populism

• Economic development: Rising middle class

• Opposition: Reformist or revolutionary

Political Development: Authoritarian Populism

• Khatami is elected as president in 1997

• Reformists push for political freedom

• Supreme Leader and Guardian Council(unelected) limit democratic change

Economic development: Rising middle class

• A more educated middle class emerges from modernization

• Restricted by inflation, unemployment, and economic inequality halt the pursuit of political freedom/social liberties

Opposition: Reformist or revolutionary

• Opposition comes in two strong forms

• Reformists

  • Want gradual change to the Islamic Republic

  • Khatami supporters

• Revolutionary

  • Want radical change to the system itself

  • Challenge compulsory hijab rules and government authority in general

Reza Pahlavi 

• Son of Mohommad Reza Pahlavi

• Advocates replacement of the Islamic Republic with a democratic, secular institution

• A prominent opposition figure

Vilayet-e Faqih

• Political/religious doctrine under Khomeini that allows Islamic jurist authority over the state

• Foundation of Iran’s political system

  • Gives the Supreme Leader authority

Mohammad Reza Pahlavi 

• Iran’s last Shah

• Overthrown in the 1979 revolution

Mohammad Khatami

• Reformist president

• Conservative religious ideas

• Political openness, civil society, dialogue with the West

Ayatollah Khomeini 

• Leading figure of the 1979 revolution

• Founded the Islamic Republic

• Established the Vilayet-e Faqih

Mahmoud Ahmadinejad

• President from 2005-2013

• Conservative populist

• Appealed to the lower income

• Triggered the Green Movement with his reelection

Bazaaris 

• Donated to the Shi’a clergy

• Supported strikes against the Shah

Green Movement (2009 + )

• Demands for free and fair elections following Ahmadinejad’s reelection

• Violently suppressed by the government

Tudeh (ICP)

• A communist party

• Advocated workers’ rights, socialism, economic equality