Domains of Change Revision

Why do people chose to live in close proximity to volcanoes?

Benefits including fertile soils, water resources and geothermal energy

How many US dollars were lost globally after the eruption of Eyjafjallajokull in 2010 and why?

$5 billion due to restrictions on air traffic

What are the two dominant approaches to managing volcanic eruptions?

The traditional scientific approach and the ‘radical’ approach which centres political, economic and social risk factors

What do natural scientists monitor in order to predict eruptions?

Earthquakes, ground deformation, gas release etc. to reveal that magma is moving towards the surface

What is one of the key problems with interpreting unrest?

Unrest does not always lead to an eruption and this uncertainty should be transparently communicated

How are models used to predict volcanic eruptions?

Historical and present data are combined with knowledge of physical magmatic laws in mathematical models to predict how events may unfold, inform forecasting and extend this to the impact of volcanoes on global climate due to aerosol and gas release

What are the problems with interpreting models?

They may miss parameters, lack correlation and there remains much uncertainty

How are event trees used to predict volcanic eruptions?

Event trees represent possible hazard evolution with each branch building a more detailed level of the scenario; this can be used to assess how risks may develop through probability

What are the two key types of uncertainty?

Epistemic and aleatory

What is the difference between epistemic and aleatory uncertainties?

Epistemic uncertainties stem from gaps in knowledge that can be overcome through further research, aleatory uncertainty is associated with the natural randomness of hazard events but can never be overcome

Which volcano erupted in Washington and in what year?

Mount St Helens 1980

How were event trees and modelling used at Mount St Helens?

Extensive damage caused by the 198- eruption lead to an expansion of risk management techniques to improve forecasting including using event trees for the first time and improving communication; the Hazard Working Group was established through collaboration and by 2004 resilience was much higher due to more accurate prediction of the eruption sequence

How can social scientists improve the communication of uncertainty?

Through championing a single, comprehensive message and upholding relationships with local authorities and the public; often requires a shift from top-down technology focused communication to bottom-up approaches involved with the community

Where has a more integrated communication approach been used and how has this been characterised?

In Indonesia risk alert levels are disseminated to stakeholders and the public through the MAGMA website since 1996 to form exclusion zones and improve community capacity leading to success in improving the response to volcanic crises

Who first recognised the importance of integrating social factors into judgements of vulnerability and when?

White and Haas in the early 1970s

What is a key factor impacting vulnerability to volcanic hazards and why?

Livelihood insecurity/poverty as the poorest in society tend to live and work in exposed environments, lack resilient infrastructure, have scarce access to healthcare and education and be politically excluded from decision making

What can overcome economic disadvantage?

Community cohesion and strong social networks

Where, when and how was the impact community cohesion seen?

At the Mount Hudson eruption in 1991, Chile, farmers living close to the volcano would have been assumed to have a heightened level of vulnerability due to their relative poverty; however, they improved resistance through working together, exchanging knowledge and engaging in collaborative ash and livestock management

What other social factors can impact vulnerability to volcanic hazards?

Age, gender, disability and religion

What percentage of primary volcanic deaths occur after the first 7 days of an eruption?

63%

What percentage of these deaths are associated with returning to a high hazard zone?

44%

What are key push and pull factors leading to risky migration patterns?

Push factors include poor shelter provisioning and organisation, pull factors see people return to their homes to protect their assets, reduce potential income losses and renew their sense of place attachment

Where, when and how were these push and pull factors evidenced?

At the 1979 eruption of La Soufriere in Guadeloupe pull factors occurred due to reported burglary of shops and abandonment of homes as well as economically important livestock roaming freely; push factors resulting from distress at the lack of space and privacy in shelters as well as increases in children’s illness and a lack of logistical organisation

How can the knowledge of Indigenous groups and scholars inform risk management?

Indigenous tribes living on the flanks of volcanoes possess deep, spiritual connections to volcanoes that allow them to connect with the signs and language of eruptions in ways that natural scientists cannot; they have much to contribute but this knowledge is often under utilised and excluded

Where has an example of identifying precursor events and land zoning occurred?

At Ambae Island, Vanuatu Indigenous peoples pass down the nature of death of trees around Lake Vui, bubbling and disturbances as signs that eruption is soon to occur; they also see the crater of the volcano as sacred land where visits are forbidden as a form of land management

Where and how is volcanic knowledge passed down in unusual ways?

At Mount Ruapheu in New Zealand the Maori tribe pass down information on the history and risks of the volcano through place names, songs, dances and proverbs

Where is the importance of a multi-hazard approach illustrated and why?

At the Canary Islands volcanic eruptions are often combined with further cascading impacts form other events and demographic factors from tourism and urban expansion

How should risk reduction be characterised at the Canary Islands?

This should incorporate a multi-hazard approach rather than individual considerations of volcanoes, typhoons, extreme weather etc. as they interact to form heightened impacts; the population should also be better educated on the nature and multiplicity of risk in their homes

What should be researched in the future with regard of volcanic risk assessment?

The impact of disability, culture and the growing role of social media