VCE Politics 2026 Unit 3 AOS 2: 'Russia-Ukraine Armed Conflict'

How many deaths have resulted from the Russia-Ukraine conflict so far?

Over 1.5 million.

What is the East/West Divide in Ukraine?

2/3 of Ukrainians speak Ukrainian, and most live in the West, whilst 1/3 speak Russian and live in the East. Ukraine ‘has never been and is not yet a coherent national unit with a common narrative or a set of more or less commonly shared political aspirations.’- Leonid Peisakhin.

What did Putin say about Ukrainian nationality?

‘Russians and Ukrainians [are] one people- a single whole.’- Putin 2021.

What is the United Nation’s perspective on the conflict?

The UNGA passed a resolution in early 2022 demanding Russia withdraw from Ukraine. Of 181 votes, 141 voted for, 35 abstained and 5 voted against. ‘No territorial acquisition resulting from the resulting from the threat or use of force shall be recognized as legal.’ Russia vetoes all UNSC resolutions.

What is the response of the European Union of the conflict?

The EU has given over 88 billion Euros in the first 2 years of the conflict (European Commission, 2024). They activated a temporary protection directive in early 2022 for fleeing Ukrainians. As of November 2023, 4.2 million Ukrainians had been granted protection. However, Ukraine does not benefit from the EU’s mutual defence clause (Article 42 (7)).

What is the EU’s Russia-Ukraine conflict quote?

‘We condemn in the strongest possible terms Russia’s unprecedented military aggression against Ukraine’ as ‘grossly violating international law and undermining European and global security and stability.’ (European Council) Peace must be ‘just, comprehensive and lasting.’

What is the Ukraine perspective quote on the EU and its goals?

‘The future of [Ukraine] lies within the European Union.’ ‘The war must end with the complete restoration of territorial integrity and sovereignty and prevention of future Russian aggression.’ (Ukrainian President Zelensky, 2024)

What has North Korea done during the Russia-Ukraine conflict?

North Korea sent 6,700 containers carrying munitions to Russia between Sept 2023 and Feb 2024. (Al Jazeera 2024).

What was the response of Sweden and Finland to the invasion?

Finland joined NATO in April 2023 and Sweden in March 2024.

How do Russia’s oil and natural gas exports affect the EU?

Russia provided 40% of the EU’s natural gas and 30% of crude oil. Revenue from these exports made up 1/3-1/2 of Russia’s federal budget over the past decade (Reuters 2024). As such, the EU could not place a total ban on Russian imports. Russia cut some EU gas supplies in 2022. Italy had to set its max heating temp to 18 degrees.

How has the Russia-Ukraine conflict affected East African States?

Prior to the war, North East African states were receiving 40-80% of its wheat from Ukraine and Russia. The Black Sea Grain Initiative was launched in response, and 33 million tonnes of grain left Ukraine during this period. However, grain exports to the least developing countries did not return to desired levels (Wintour 2023). Russia ended its participation in the program in July 2023.

How did the U.S-Biden administration respond to the Russia Ukraine conflict?

The US donated US $60 billion in military aid to Ukraine between 2022 and 2024, on top of $350 million in military aid 1 day after the initial invasion. A Ukrainian Security Assistance Initiative was formed. Republicans secured the House in 2023 and the Presidency in 2025. Since, Russia has gained 6,000 km2.

What did Victor Orban say about American influence on the conflict?

‘If the Americans don’t give money, the Europeans alone are unable to finance this war.’- Viktor Orban, 2024.

How has Germany responded to the conflict?

Germany ‘will support [Ukraine] or as long as it is necessary.’ It donated 2.7 billion euros in military aid, and donated 12 Leopard 2 tanks in Ukraine.

What was the response of the ICC to the conflict?

It began issuing arrest warrants for Russian officials in 2023, including Putin and Lvova-Belea, the Children’s Rights Commissioner, eroding diplomatic legitimacy and preventing Putin from attending the BRICS summit in 2023. However, neither Russia or Ukraine are members of the ICC, and Russia withdrew from the Rome Statute in 2016.

What is one way in which the EU has been incapable of responding effectively to the conflict?

Hungarian President Victor Orban oversaw the presidency of The Council of the European Union in late 2024, and in 2023, Hungary blocked an EU funding package to Ukraine of 54 billion euros.

What are some quotes relating to Amnesty International?

The invasion is a ‘human rights catastrophe’ and Russia is in ‘clear breach of its international obligations.’ It urged the UN to ‘stand together in condemnation of Russia’s crimes of aggression’ as ‘there can be no justice for Ukrainians without full accountability for all crimes committed by Russia since its military intervention in 2014.’

How did Russia respond to Amnesty International’s accusations?

Russia described it as ‘Russophobic’ and an ‘undesirable organisation’.

What did Amnesty International accuse Ukraine of?

It August 2022 it accused Ukraine of placing civilians at risk ‘by establishing bases and operating weapons systems in populated residential areas, including in schools and hospitals.’ Zelensky responded that they were trying to ‘shift the responsibility from the aggressor the victim.’

What is a quote that reflects Russia’s desire for power and a sphere of influence?

The conflict is driven by ‘Russia’s desire to regain control of Ukraine and turn it into a puppet regime’, and its belief that it is ‘entitled to a sphere of influence over the former Soviet Republics.’- Paul D’Anieri.

What are some quotes the reflect self-defence and Russia’s fear of NATO as a cause of the conflict?

‘The security dilemma in Europe, with Russia perceiving the expansion of NATO as a threat, and other East European states desiring guarantees against Russian expansionism.’- Paul D’Anieri'. The attack was ‘self defence’ to ‘protect the people in the Donbas.’- Putin 2022.

What is a quote relating to identity and history as a cause of the conflict?

‘Imperial fantasies, historical nostalgia and resentment towards the West.’ (Taylor and Francis 2024). Kremlin planners assumed that most Ukrainians, sharing ‘their Slavic roots, Orthodox faith, and Soviet historical ties’ would ‘be receptive’.

What is a quote relating to regime security and fear of democracy as a cause of the conflict?

‘Democratic Ukraine [is] perceived by Russia as a political threat to the authoritarian regime.’- D’Anieri.

How has Russia justified the invasion?

It has ‘no other option’ to ‘protect those subjected to violence and genocide by the Kyiv regime’. The goal is to ‘demilitarize and denazify Ukraine’, ‘not to occupy’.- Putin 2022.

How is the Black Sea Grain Initiative an example of diplomacy?

The negotiations began in April 2022, mediated by Turkiye with the UN acting as guarantor. A Join Coordination and Inspection Centre (JCIC) was launched.

How has France engaged in diplomacy regarding the conflict?

In early 2023, French president Macron proposed the Summit on Peace in Ukraine, held in June 2024 with 92 states and 8 IGOs attending. Russia did not participate.

How has China engaged in diplomacy regarding the conflict?

In early 2023, China proposed a ‘12 point plan.’ It was supported by Putin, but rejected by Ukraine and the West.

How does the UN Charter affect the conflict?

The UN Charter Article 2 (4) established sovereignty, territorial integrity, and the prohibition of the use of force as foundational principles.

How has the International Court of Justice influenced the conflict?

Ukraine brought Russia before the ICJ in 2022, claiming it has misused the Genocide Convention. The court issued legally binding measures to stop the war.

What military victories has Ukraine achieved since the start of the conflict?

Since the beginning of the full-scale war, Ukrainian forces have destroyed over 11 thousand Russian tanks, 24 thousand armored fighting vehicles, and 39 thousand artillery systems.

What is Russia’s GDP and active duty personnel compared to Ukraine’s?

Ukraine has a GDP of US $200 billion vs. $2.5 trillion for Russia, and 980,000 active duty personnel vs. 1.5 million. Ukraine has lost 20% of its land to Russian occupation.

What is one challenge of identity that Ukraine is facing in this conflict?

Ukraine ‘has never been and is not yet a coherent national unit with a common narrative and a set of more or less commonly shared political aspirations.

What is the perspective of the United States on the conflict?

The US has ‘support for Ukraine’s security, prosperity, reconstruction and reintegration into global economic frameworks.’

How has President Trump’s response to the Russia-Ukraine conflict differed from that of Biden?

The US has twice voted with Russia against the UNGA’s resolutions. 'Ukraine will never be a victory for Russia.’- Biden 2023. Ukraine ‘will lose in a short period of time.’ -Trump. ‘Well, you’ve been there for three years… you should have ended it. You should have never started it. You should have made a deal.’ The US temporarily suspended all US military aid to Ukraine in March 2025.

What are Russia’s goals in the conflict?

To restrict Ukrainian military capacity to that of its 1997 Russia-NATO Act capacity (Harvard 2023). It also seeks to ensure that Ukraine is permanently barred from obtaining nuclear weapons or becoming a NATO member, viewing ‘any further expansion of (NATOs) infrastructure or the ongoing effort to gain a military foothold of the Ukrainian territory’ as ‘unacceptable.’